Credibility

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jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Actually, I provide a lot of liquidity to Betfair... I want a Christmas hamper. I know they're reading this.

I'll join the que, I've seen Peter's turnover & I'd be shocked if he hasn't beat that since.
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:03 am
Actually, I provide a lot of liquidity to Betfair... I want a Christmas hamper. I know they're reading this.

I'll join the que, I've seen Peter's turnover & I'd be shocked if he hasn't beat that since.
But this is the thing. Just say I’m 2% of the Australian market. There was a period when I was out ... and so two points, 1 they were just willing to exclude me and 2 when they did nothing really changed in the market when that happened while I was just sadly watching on. I definitely over estimated my own importance to market liquidity.
rik
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Location: London

gazuty wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:38 am

But this is the thing. Just say I’m 2% of the Australian market. There was a period when I was out ... and so two points, 1 they were just willing to exclude me and 2 when they did nothing really changed in the market when that happened while I was just sadly watching on. I definitely over estimated my own importance to market liquidity.
you were demanding something from Betfair for liquidity you provide?
rik
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Location: London

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:26 am
What or if People should be judged on is "skin in the game" my turnover is roughly .5 of a million every month, that is relatively low or very, very low if we were to compare.
Turnover on bets is irrelevant if your scalping or keep scratching bets. Settled markets is what matters but then if one was losing a lot, dont think that would make him more „credible“
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

rik wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:37 am
you were demanding something from Betfair for liquidity you provide?
The reverse I guess. Before the turnover charge was introduced I guess (they never said exactly) they looked through people and rang some people (including me and 1 or 2 other forum members). I was asked not to participate in NSW markets at all. Then even in the early configuration of their fist version of the turnover charge I was back for a bit and then taken out again. My account was totally deactivated until I “voluntarily” agreed to be out. (They didn’t care even if I paid the charge ... for whatever reason what I do was costing them way too much). Anyways I guess that is all in the distant past.

Went back and checked. Almost ten years ago :o :o

viewtopic.php?t=6193

All off topic I guess. (I’m saying “I guess” almost as much as my children say “you know ... it’s like, like you know, like .... like”).
MAGTRADEUK
Posts: 144
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm

gazuty wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:38 am
rik wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:37 am
you were demanding something from Betfair for liquidity you provide?
The reverse I guess. Before the turnover charge was introduced I guess (they never said exactly) they looked through people and rang some people (including me and 1 or 2 other forum members). I was asked not to participate in NSW markets at all. Then even in the early configuration of their fist version of the turnover charge I was back for a bit and then taken out again. My account was totally deactivated until I “voluntarily” agreed to be out. (They didn’t care even if I paid the charge ... for whatever reason what I do was costing them way too much). Anyways I guess that is all in the distant past.

Went back and checked. Almost ten years ago :o :o

viewtopic.php?t=6193

All off topic I guess. (I’m saying “I guess” almost as much as my children say “you know ... it’s like, like you know, like .... like”).
I dont have to worry about it as I will never end up paying it.

I looked at all the videos and tried pre race trading small stakes and did not work for me, plus even if it did work out, the reason I quit full time work was to avoid being chanined to a desk staring at a screen.

For me now a strategy where I plug b.a. and guardian in, set it up and leave it, come back later and see if am up or down. If you do pay PC then suppose its a mark of your sucess and therfore a tax,. just like in the working world, the better you are the more you get paid and therefore the more tax you pay.

I am still testing strategies, by data collection mainly but have one on a live real money small stakes test, initial results look reasonable but time will tell
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Morbius
Posts: 492
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jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:50 pm
rik wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:21 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:35 pm




erm......let me go away and have a think about if I want to give away three years of applied research on a forum and I'll get back to you :D

Academic anyway Rik as some of the solutions should be obvious to an experienced trader/bettor or anyone who has been on this forum and amassed as many contacts that you no doubt have. The most obvious being don't be a pure trader and get other strings to your bow
Getting a different account would work in theory if you wanted to go that far, seems betfair are very aware of that. Even Peter was saying he got found out for it.
Forget arbing / laying off somewhere else, not worth the effort if your betting seriously.
The market is efficient, you don't need to bet/arb elsewhere, long term you'll break even but create commission. I didn't think this was a secret, it's been discussed plenty. Takes about a minute to research, not 3 years.


I suggest you don't insert your own bias/meaning/facts into other statements just to suit yourself. Clearly you don't know what I have been working for 3 years on and someone would have to be a moron to take three years to figure something that could be found in one minute flat and its pretty easy to figure that out. As for your definition of "efficient"......I'm curious to know if your research on efficiency took one minute as well :-)
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

gazuty wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:38 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:03 am
Actually, I provide a lot of liquidity to Betfair... I want a Christmas hamper. I know they're reading this.

I'll join the que, I've seen Peter's turnover & I'd be shocked if he hasn't beat that since.
But this is the thing. Just say I’m 2% of the Australian market. There was a period when I was out ... and so two points, 1 they were just willing to exclude me and 2 when they did nothing really changed in the market when that happened while I was just sadly watching on. I definitely over estimated my own importance to market liquidity.
Yep, it was a little sarcastic on my behalf. I wouldnt even consider myself as a small player, let alone one of the big ones. Certainly I wouldn't be missed, because I'm not even noticeable.

I'd be suprised if players like Peter, Dallas, Linus & others don't hold a significant importance in Betfairs eyes (not that they ever show it). Peter's turnover was jaw dropping. People like that are important to us all, combined they probably are a significant % of the markets.

I'm not a fan of this credible certificate idea, I know who is who & it's very obvious to me who is a big player & who is a participant. I value information based on that & tbh Peter & Dallas are the main providers of help anyway... Peter with his sm contribution (YouTube & Twitter) & Dallas with his forum contribution, especially anything automation. Everyone else is just noise, me included... that's not to say that there isn't valuable noise but I think people pretty quickly focus in on the help of Peter & Dallas.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Morbius wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:34 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:50 pm
rik wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:21 pm


Getting a different account would work in theory if you wanted to go that far, seems betfair are very aware of that. Even Peter was saying he got found out for it.
Forget arbing / laying off somewhere else, not worth the effort if your betting seriously.
The market is efficient, you don't need to bet/arb elsewhere, long term you'll break even but create commission. I didn't think this was a secret, it's been discussed plenty. Takes about a minute to research, not 3 years.


I suggest you don't insert your own bias/meaning/facts into other statements just to suit yourself. Clearly you don't know what I have been working for 3 years on and someone would have to be a moron to take three years to figure something that could be found in one minute flat and its pretty easy to figure that out. As for your definition of "efficient"......I'm curious to know if your research on efficiency took one minute as well :-)
Thank you for your suggestion.
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
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Location: Narnia

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:53 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:34 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:50 pm


The market is efficient, you don't need to bet/arb elsewhere, long term you'll break even but create commission. I didn't think this was a secret, it's been discussed plenty. Takes about a minute to research, not 3 years.


I suggest you don't insert your own bias/meaning/facts into other statements just to suit yourself. Clearly you don't know what I have been working for 3 years on and someone would have to be a moron to take three years to figure something that could be found in one minute flat and its pretty easy to figure that out. As for your definition of "efficient"......I'm curious to know if your research on efficiency took one minute as well :-)
Thank you for your suggestion.
james, (don't want this to come over as patronising - but) i applaud you for not taking the bait on the above comment. moving on is the new not letting go ;)
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

jimibt wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:56 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:53 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:34 pm




I suggest you don't insert your own bias/meaning/facts into other statements just to suit yourself. Clearly you don't know what I have been working for 3 years on and someone would have to be a moron to take three years to figure something that could be found in one minute flat and its pretty easy to figure that out. As for your definition of "efficient"......I'm curious to know if your research on efficiency took one minute as well :-)
Thank you for your suggestion.
james, (don't want this to come over as patronising - but) i applaud you for not taking the bait on the above comment. moving on is the new not letting go ;)
I couldn't say anything else. He's right, I did insert my own bias & his suggestion pointed it out so I'm thankful.
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:05 pm
jimibt wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:56 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:53 pm


Thank you for your suggestion.
james, (don't want this to come over as patronising - but) i applaud you for not taking the bait on the above comment. moving on is the new not letting go ;)
I couldn't say anything else. He's right, I did insert my own bias & his suggestion pointed it out so I'm thankful.
:oops: :)
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:49 pm
I'm not a fan of this credible certificate idea
+1 and nicely brought back on topic 😀
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Kai
Posts: 6096
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

To pull it back on topic, wanted to say this properly earlier but didn't find the time and later forgot...

Obviously, credibility is an invaluable currency if you decide to lead a public life, but to a private person it's worth as much as monopoly money. It's a fragile thing too, it's something that you can spend a lifetime building and then potentially lose it in a single day, so careful what you wish for.

Why desire credibility if that means giving up precious anonymity and accepting all the costs without gaining any extra benefits, it seems poor value with incredible diminishing returns. Credibility can arguably only come from one place anyway, the rest would just be good marketing, but naturally not everyone is foolish enough to confuse visibility for credibility, like they tend to do on social media and other platforms. I'm not trying to take easy potshots at anyone out there in particular, as entertaining as that would be, I'm just expressing my opinion for the sake of the discussion.

To be fair, I barely even acknowledge P&L's in general since any cretin out there can seemingly pick out a decent one to showcase, and even when genuine they can rarely even quantify where it came from and how they managed to produce it, so I pay far more attention to what people say and how they say it, since conveying subtle nuances and the underlying context behind the markets is a different matter entirely.

Since we're on this topic, what worries me on a personal level is that if I ever get overzealous again in my pursuit of credit, when I get to the next plateau, like I probably was during my first year if I'm being honest with myself, that the credibility (past results, keyword being "past") will only encourage me to rest on my laurels and it might stop my progress dead in its tracks, which is the very last thing I would want to happen. This would mean that the knowledge (potential future results, keyword being "future") that I have would then be wasted. So if it's ultimately a choice between "past" and "future" then my choice should be easy enough. Barring any future business ventures that require transparency I don't really see much else changing my mind.

On account of my open personality and natural thirst for knowledge I've already had the pleasure of meeting a few people that could put most other top traders to shame, like most people have I'm sure, and they are more than happy to remain private people, it's their advice that I probably value the most, which is along the lines of "less talk, more work". I hope this doesn't come as a shocker to many but you don't need to tell much to an experienced trader at all, the fact that you even exist in a market should already be more than enough information. In other words, if somebody tells you that a treasure chest is buried somewhere in your backyard you're going to find that chest based off this information alone, since you already have all the necessary tools at your disposal.

I did enjoy getting in all sorts of trading discussion in the past, or tried to at least, but even for the knowledge alone, that I used to fuel my arguments, I can't take any credit for it even if I wanted to. Most of it is just borrowed work of other traders, things I picked up and learned along the way from practically everyone. Nobody is that clever to find all the missing pieces himself and do all the legwork himself fresh off the boat, this would take decades.

Whether I'll start properly utilizing some of the accrued knowledge and get tired of being an average trader, or whether I'll seek more attractive opportunities outside of betting exchanges, it doesn't really matter since I'm fairly confident in my ability to stick to my principles no matter where the journey takes me. In my opinion, as long as you and the important people around you are happy with your work then that source of self-fulfillment should last you a lifetime.

And at this point I'm not even sure whether these principles are my own, or whether I borrowed them from the great investors and speculators out there, but don't much care anymore :)
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alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

I came up with my own system to 100% reliably check who are the genuine traders and who aren't. You just put any trader's name into the government number plate checker and the rest is self-explanatory. Turns out Derek is a window salesman with a van and just pretends to be a trader :lol:
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