The Fox in the Hen House

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wearthefoxhat
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PapaShango wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:19 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:38 am





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On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM

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There was an ITV documentary from about 20/25 years ago called “winners” about professional gamblers.

It featured some horse racing and some poker pros. The late ‘devil fish’ was one of the poker pros featured, and Steve Lewis Hamilton was the horse racing pro. They followed him round for the day.

It was a really good documentary. I used to have it on VHS but I lost the tape, and don’t even have a tape player to play it on now anyway. I can’t find it anywhere on YouTube , though would like to see it again.

It was only about 20 mins or so long, though was good to see gambling being shown in a positive light. All we get nowadays is bombarded with anti gambling stories and documentaries. It would be nice to remind people that if you work hard at it, treat it with respect, then you can actually win.
That would be a good one to watch.

This one in 1994 (there are 4 parts) is interesting too. The guy behind Brimardon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmEbC107xCU
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wearthefoxhat
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Ok, another damp squib yesterday....some days chicken, some days feathers.

On review, I need to broaden the net on the value qualifying types, especially if the top end of the market is priced up about right. In Ireland, the market can change rapidly nearer to the off time, so it might throw up something interesting.


Tramore 2.37

Tram 2.37.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Chicken today!


The early odds posted were.

Early.png

The price recorded around 5 mins before the off and the result.

Tram2.37FR.png


Prices taken for the Dutch

Tram2.47Dutch.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Some more chicken today.

As previously said, aiming to cover any selection with EV+ (based on my inputs), and back if the value is offered within the market. Today I factored in a weighting scale from the top down. eg: Top rated Tissue price +10%, 2 Top rated Tissue price +15%....etc

The early value index is based on +25% on the tissue prices and offers a guide to the prices going forward.


Uttox3.40V.png


With the winner, the target price was 2.14 and 2.98 was attained. The only other one was unplaced.
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wearthefoxhat
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Some feathers on this one.

Newc 5.00V.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Digging into the weeds, there's a nice little Class 2 @ Catterick today.

Catterick 3.40

Catt 3.40.png

Using the value approach, the whole field is monitored (with automation) 18,000 seconds away from the off time. (5 hours). If during that time, a target price comes into range, the price is captured.

Zargun.png

The race itself suggests, 3.Count D'Orsay looks to be poor value in the race.
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wearthefoxhat
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Absolutely nailed it! A chicken feast.


Catt 3.40 R.png


So there you have it, several examples of wins and losses, mainly wins and a good way of how to use value betting to make profits.
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sionascaig
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Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Interesting thread - thanks for sharing foxey...
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