Just impossible!

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

deggsy10 wrote:
Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:20 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:18 pm
deggsy10 wrote:
Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:07 pm
Pi**ed off ....
If things, any things, 'p1ss you off', stop now, give up. It's the worst thing you can do. Even a genius market reader who gets p1ssed off will lose.

You had a load of great advice before, enough things to keep you busy for months, but you're back in a couple of days! I think you just have an over inflated sense of your own abilities and expect to do this without putting in the 100s or 1000s of hours. Not just 100s of hours playing at it and clicking all over the place, I mean 100s of hours really focussed study, noting and understanding.

What about your stats? Do you know which race types, price ranges, market profiles are working best/worse ? Are your odds-on trades better than your 6+ trades? I'm guessing you don't keep detailed stats, in fact I'd put money on it.
I dont know what you mean by odds on trades better than 6+ trades. What stats should I be collecting and how would I use them to predict future races?
I mean the prices of the horses you traded. Unless you're varying your stake, you might just find that, possibly for no special reason, you're having a spell of losers at high odds (big effect) and winners on the short ones (small effect). It can make your results seem bad when in fact, if they'd all been the same amount per tick you're actually doing ok, or not so bad anyway. Do you stake Fixed amount or % Liability ?

As for other stats, start by just bringing the BF P&L into Excel.

That will let you see things like if you're doing better on handicaps than non-handicaps, or if certain times of the day or days of the week suit you better than others. When I first did that I saw that my first half hour, and between 5 and 6 were killing me, and mid-afternoon was best. So I reduced my stakes early on and stopped to eat at 5. You can add a column to that sheet for the inital price of the horse and a brief note/code for the market shape, and really start to see where you're good and what's spoiling it.

A race with a)one horse at evens and the rest at big prices, trades very differently to b)one with joint faves & rags, or c)a 20 runner handicap with 6 of them at 8/1. For me, in order of returns, it goes a) then b) then c) for you it might be different, see how it looks over a month. Try and avoid what's hurting you most or at least reduce your stakes on those until it gets better.

I'd start by not using that 'Keep bets' button because it will end in tears

If anything, set your unmatched bets to 'Take SP' and always have enough unmatched bets somewhere in the market to get you close to balanced. It's a good idea anyway cos you could get a freak fill from a spike, and it saves a heart attack if your pc goes down 5secs before the off. I have a bot that sets my unmatched bets to 'Take SP' so I don't have to change the status of them all, it also Greens at IP+1s and keeps doing it every 10secs through the race to stop me doing anything stupid like being tempted to trade in-play or having a bet. It's not something I even think about doing now (I used to be terrible at having stupid £2/£5 bets 'for a bit of fun' if I'd f*cked up my trade) but no harm in leaving the safety net there in case of a mis-click or a brainstorm. The incentive not to stray from straight trading is there now because it makes your stats meaningless and you've no real idea of how you're doing.

I didn't mean to sound harsh about the time you have/haven't put in, but the answers to your questions are very different if you've been grinding away for a year or just a few months and a few hundered markets . How many markets have you traded?
deggsy10
Posts: 81
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 8:53 am

Thanks for the responses guys but I'm done with it. I have just lost £300 backing New Zealand in the rugby when they were 15-9 up and all over the lions with about 20 mins left. No sign at all of the lions getting back in the match and scoring 2 tries. Just typical of the luck I've been having. I have come to the conclusion that the whole thing is essentially gambling. You may not be betting on an outcome in the traditional sense but you are betting on the odds going in a certain direction which is still gambling which will eventually end in tears. With the money I have spent on trading courses and all these trades that have gone wrong, I'm pissing all the profits away that I have made from matched betting. Not to mention all the time I have spent away from my family glued to a computer screen. I'm bailing out before I lose more money.
welshboy06
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:06 pm

deggsy10 wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:46 am
Thanks for the responses guys but I'm done with it. I have just lost £300 backing New Zealand in the rugby when they were 15-9 up and all over the lions with about 20 mins left. No sign at all of the lions getting back in the match and scoring 2 tries. Just typical of the luck I've been having. I have come to the conclusion that the whole thing is essentially gambling. You may not be betting on an outcome in the traditional sense but you are betting on the odds going in a certain direction which is still gambling which will eventually end in tears. With the money I have spent on trading courses and all these trades that have gone wrong, I'm pissing all the profits away that I have made from matched betting. Not to mention all the time I have spent away from my family glued to a computer screen. I'm bailing out before I lose more money.
I'm sorry, but how much do you know about the game of rugby?
I've played and been a fan since the age of 7. NZ were a man down. I wouldn't have (and didn't) touch the game with 20 mins left. Too hard to predict, the aim of the game is to find value. There was no value in the price, I believe NZ were at 2.2s around the time you mentioned. Man down and winning by less than 10pts with that price, big no no.

What you did was take a gamble that NZ would win.
deggsy10
Posts: 81
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 8:53 am

welshboy06 wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 11:13 am
deggsy10 wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:46 am
Thanks for the responses guys but I'm done with it. I have just lost £300 backing New Zealand in the rugby when they were 15-9 up and all over the lions with about 20 mins left. No sign at all of the lions getting back in the match and scoring 2 tries. Just typical of the luck I've been having. I have come to the conclusion that the whole thing is essentially gambling. You may not be betting on an outcome in the traditional sense but you are betting on the odds going in a certain direction which is still gambling which will eventually end in tears. With the money I have spent on trading courses and all these trades that have gone wrong, I'm pissing all the profits away that I have made from matched betting. Not to mention all the time I have spent away from my family glued to a computer screen. I'm bailing out before I lose more money.
I'm sorry, but how much do you know about the game of rugby?
I've played and been a fan since the age of 7. NZ were a man down. I wouldn't have (and didn't) touch the game with 20 mins left. Too hard to predict, the aim of the game is to find value. There was no value in the price, I believe NZ were at 2.2s around the time you mentioned. Man down and winning by less than 10pts with that price, big no no.

What you did was take a gamble that NZ would win.
They were 1.22 when I backed them.
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Deggsy,

I hope that I can offer some words of encouragement here.

Think back to the point when you knew nothing about matched betting. From the posts you've made, I can see that you've managed to become profitable doing that.

The point being that ANY new skill takes time to learn.

Anyone who is consistent with their trading on here was at exactly the stage you are today - the difference being, is that the stuck with it, learnt from their mistakes and now enjoy the fruits of their labour.

You can do this but a big factor is going to be your mindset i.e if you tell yourself it's gambling, then that's what it will be.

The other advice I would give you is:

1) Take a week off from trading - clear your mind and write down why you want to trade

2) If / When you come back, make sure your Betfair account has no more than £20 and trade with £2 stakes - at this stage of your journey, you need to focus on not losing money.

Best of luck

Iambic
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2127
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

Christ! if you don't want to do it , then just leave!!!! and stop winging
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bennyboy351
Posts: 332
Joined: Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:01 pm
Location: West Midlands, England.

MemphisFlash wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:04 pm
Christ! if you don't want to do it , then just leave!!!! and stop winging
Don't ever take a job with the Samaritans! :)
Sovereign
Posts: 39
Joined: Wed May 10, 2017 3:12 pm

deggsy10 wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:00 pm
welshboy06 wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 11:13 am
deggsy10 wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:46 am
Thanks for the responses guys but I'm done with it. I have just lost £300 backing New Zealand in the rugby when they were 15-9 up and all over the lions with about 20 mins left. No sign at all of the lions getting back in the match and scoring 2 tries. Just typical of the luck I've been having. I have come to the conclusion that the whole thing is essentially gambling. You may not be betting on an outcome in the traditional sense but you are betting on the odds going in a certain direction which is still gambling which will eventually end in tears. With the money I have spent on trading courses and all these trades that have gone wrong, I'm pissing all the profits away that I have made from matched betting. Not to mention all the time I have spent away from my family glued to a computer screen. I'm bailing out before I lose more money.
I'm sorry, but how much do you know about the game of rugby?
I've played and been a fan since the age of 7. NZ were a man down. I wouldn't have (and didn't) touch the game with 20 mins left. Too hard to predict, the aim of the game is to find value. There was no value in the price, I believe NZ were at 2.2s around the time you mentioned. Man down and winning by less than 10pts with that price, big no no.

What you did was take a gamble that NZ would win.
They were 1.22 when I backed them.

What on earth are you doing risking the sort of sums you are, repeatedly, even at low odds?

The approach you seem to have is exactly what you described - gambling. You don't have emotional control, you're making rash decisions and you're losing money fast and loose. Your decision to quit is probably the single best one you've made.
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Euler
Posts: 24701
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Gamblers buy volatility, traders sell it. Simple as.
maycontainnuts
Posts: 88
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:58 pm

Great example of how a bad mindset can destroy a trading methodology.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Well, my reply was half and hour I'll never get back. Ho hum.

Good luck in the future deggsy, sound like the right decision to quit. I like to see people giving up and joining the 95%. It helps the tally for rest of us who are doing everything possible and sweating blood to try and be in the 5%.
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:34 pm
Well, my reply was half and hour I'll never get back. Ho hum.
Sometimes when one writes a long reply with the intention of trying to help, it often helps one to clear things up in ones own mind. So even if the person you wrote it for either ignores it or dismisses it completely, you may well have benefited yourself from writing it, and also other people might have gained something from reading it too.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Bluesky wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:47 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:34 pm
Well, my reply was half and hour I'll never get back. Ho hum.
Sometimes when one writes a long reply with the intention of trying to help, it often helps one to clear things up in ones own mind. So even if the person you wrote it for either ignores it or dismisses it completely, you may well have benefited yourself from writing it, and also other people might have gained something from reading it too.
To be honest Bluesky, that's the main reason I often reply at length. Helps to solidify what I think is the way to do it or things I've heard others say. I also acts as a 'Dear diary' when the missus is fed up listening to me banging on about every tiny detail 24/7.
gullsfan
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:25 pm

Wow,

I am not in a position to offer you any advice on trading as I am by far and away no expert at it. That said I win between £30 and £50 every day. I've traded for an hour and a quarter this afternoon. Had one trade which was a loss of £2.14. The other seven or eight were all in profit.

Ended up wth £54 profit but I've stopped now as I find my concentration levels wane after a while - its a sign of getting old no doubt

I have my own back to lay ratings as well which also provide a good angle and are in the main profitable.

As for the rugby though - seriously what are you doing? Ok its easy to be wise after the match has finished and you no result. I didn't trade the match at all because it was too engrossing watching it.

You say it "was just your luck" that New Zealand lost. Yes they were all over the Lions for the first twenty minutes of the second half but seriously? £300 quid @ 1.22 with 14 men.

NZ were kicking penalties but didn't really look like scoring tries. The Lions had a high impact bench and the game was far from over even with their nine point lead. Once they established Field position I would have suggested that there was a fair chance the Lions would start scoring points.

I'm not adverse to backing odds on chances. Can't remember who the Lions played in the last but one Tuesday game. Think they were available @ 1.66 or something. The NZ side (whoever it was) had half their team missing that day. I won £78 on that game.

The information is out there if you care to look for it.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

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