How do you invest the money you make?

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arbitrage16
Posts: 532
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:33 am
Kai wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:34 pm
Speaking of quality forum content, come on guys, could you please take the pissing contest somewhere more private?

It's been a decent thread to follow so far, gained some good insight personally and I'm sure others have as well, it would be a shame if it was ruined with personal insults.
Nice try Kai but as you can see 'he' will never stop but thanks for trying. All I can say is you won't get anymore from me going forward. I tried to bring it to an end weeks ago but 'they' had to reopen it. Anyway my boredom threshold has been reached.
It was re-opened because in the very moment that you were suggesting that timing the markets was the right approach, the markets proved you entirely wrong, so as I've said, your example is a good one for others to learn from - you can't time the market.

If there has been anything good from this thread then you have to take a lot of credit for it - you are the perfect example of a cautionary tale, the guy who even in the face of overwhelming evidence - and still unable to provide any of his own - believes he is in the right.

Here is Daniel Kahneman - that's Mr Kahneman, who as a psychologist won the nobel prize in economics, think about that for a second - also confirming how and why you're wrong - https://youtu.be/hOm6rD4m4V0?t=88

When Kahneman cites 'individuals losing a ton of money' we now all know who he's referring to.
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ShaunWhite
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Berkshire Hathaway announce a record $50bn (£40bn) net first quarter loss, Reuters news agency reports.
LinusP
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marksmeets302 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:09 pm
A very nice example of this was last Thursday: the stock market closed at a level that triggered the deleveraging. The futures were still open for another hour and there you saw massive selling.
With sentiment so extremely negative it could very well be that a short term bottom is very near, or we already saw one on Friday. Don't panic :-)
Good call but are we now at the top?

I am now 90% cash and have my finger on the trigger to go 100%, my only fear is that all this money printing is going to cause uncontrollable inflation, in my mind this is what is fuelling current prices.
sa7med
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LinusP wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:59 pm
marksmeets302 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:09 pm
A very nice example of this was last Thursday: the stock market closed at a level that triggered the deleveraging. The futures were still open for another hour and there you saw massive selling.
With sentiment so extremely negative it could very well be that a short term bottom is very near, or we already saw one on Friday. Don't panic :-)
Good call but are we now at the top?

I am now 90% cash and have my finger on the trigger to go 100%, my only fear is that all this money printing is going to cause uncontrollable inflation, in my mind this is what is fuelling current prices.
Same. I bought some previous metals ETFs as a hedge against inflation but the rest is cash. May look into other commodoties.
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megarain
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Am 60% cash.

Portfolio recovered from crash. I can’t understand it.

Can’t help thinking u can own 5 or so stocks and forget

Long : Nvidia (rocket ship)
Tesla .. same
Microsoft
Shopify .. all star
Amazon .. same
Apple ..
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marksmeets302
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LinusP wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:59 pm

I am now 90% cash and have my finger on the trigger to go 100%, my only fear is that all this money printing is going to cause uncontrollable inflation, in my mind this is what is fuelling current prices.
I'm fairly convinced we'll have deflation where I live (the Netherlands) for as long as the economy is in shambles. It might be different for the UK because of brexit. For me personally I'm more nervous about what happens after this coronathing is over. I expect some decent inflation then, and that won't be good for bonds and cash. On the other hand, stocks and precious metals will probably profit so I'll still have something to eat. But none of this is certain enough to base any investment strategy on. A good diversified portfolio is what you need when you can't predict the future.

As for the short term: yes lots of reasons why the market could be considered too high. But one thing caught my eye: the NYSE advance-decline line is making new highs. Meaning that the advance is carried by the broad market, no longer just a few stocks. That too me doesn't seem consistent with a major top in the making.
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megarain
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megarain wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:04 pm
Am 60% cash.

Portfolio recovered from crash. I can’t understand it.

Can’t help thinking u can own 5 or so stocks and forget

Long : Nvidia (rocket ship) (June 1 price 356, July 1 price - 382)
Tesla .. same (June 1 price, 86, July 1 price -120
Microsoft June 1 - 18386, July 1 - 20500
Shopify .. all star - June 1, 74, July 1 - 98
Amazon .. same - June 1, 25200, July 1, 28400
Apple .. June 1, 32700, July 1, 36300
Some of these are up 15%+ this month.

Tech rally is something.

Edited to show prices - They probably all crash now, but after years of getting beat up by the market, this was an ok month. Suppose if u bang your head against the wall long enough, you get lucky.
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megarain
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Tesla has become irrational, having risen 12% in early trade after massive consecutive up days, only to fall 2%.

It’s now back to $1550, from $1700, and the excessive volatility has made me sell to book the profits.

Have Also sold 60% of every other tech share that’s had a massive run.

Now 80% cash.
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megarain
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Tiny sample, but the last time the Nasdaq rallied 2% and ended the day dropping 1%, it didnt end well (medium term)
nasdaq rallyying 2per cent.jpg
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Worth reading - https://www.gmo.com/australia/research- ... ast-dance/

Of course there always the criticism of the person who called 26 of the last 3 crashes.

On the other hand I'm sitting on a chunk of cash earning zero because I just can't believe asset valuations and I can't believe markets largely shrugged off the disruption from covid.
weemac
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gazuty wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:11 am
Worth reading - https://www.gmo.com/australia/research- ... ast-dance/

Of course there always the criticism of the person who called 26 of the last 3 crashes.

On the other hand I'm sitting on a chunk of cash earning zero because I just can't believe asset valuations and I can't believe markets largely shrugged off the disruption from covid.
Good article. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's personal worth is greater than the entire value of every company in Europe except six.

In other news, one bitcoin is worth more than.......the entire universe.
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

weemac wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:34 am
Good article. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's personal worth is greater than the entire value of every company in Europe except six.

In other news, one bitcoin is worth more than.......the entire universe.
Yep, and the quote from the article, the market can stay irrational longer that any of us can stay solvent.

I can't wrap my mind around Tesla's valuation, its lack of unique selling proposition and the fact that even the giants of the auto industry (with alll the efficiency of scale etc) can't make money without state subsidy (in some way or another, not always direct but with the market tilted in some way).
PeterLe
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Hi
I know its not possible to invest crypto currency in an ISA, but you can use a crypto currency tracker fund (Eg BIT-XBT)
I know it will be extremely volatile (and is a punt I guess at the end of the day)

just wondered what the consensus is re Crypto; has it had its day or is there more to come?
Appreciate any views
Thanks
Regards
Peter
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I think the simple answer is nobody knows!

And I wouldn't pay much attention to people who say they do.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:11 pm
Hi
I know its not possible to invest crypto currency in an ISA, but you can use a crypto currency tracker fund (Eg BIT-XBT)
I know it will be extremely volatile (and is a punt I guess at the end of the day)

just wondered what the consensus is re Crypto; has it had its day or is there more to come?
Appreciate any views
Thanks
Regards
Peter
Ignore crypto, its all about GME :lol:

https://marketstream.io/symbol/GME
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