Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[mcgoo]

One trending example

[sniffer66]

6% in a week off my (almost) 7 figure pension pot is a little unnerving. May have to take the long term view and delay the early retirement

[marketraisen]

I dont see any downside to having a supply of water and food on hand, the best argument I've heard against it is other people viewing it as 'a bit weird', its not as food prices have ever gone down.

There will be a ton of opportunities out there to make money of course, many have already with the various financial markets struggling, selling the Chinese medical supplies and investing in food exporters to China. Right now we are seeing massive moves to shift supply chains to other parts of the world and I suspect countries like India and SE Asia/Vietnam/Indonesia to benefit the most.

Not that any of these places will be spared in the event of a real viral pandemic that kills a lot of people, if anything China is in a far stronger position to deal with it than anyone else in the world, maybe the best place to put your money right now is in the West.

[gazuty]

My wife just ordered me 6 cases of beer pending quarantine related emergency shortages( what a woman )
Seriously though..anybody shorting stocks and buying gold yet or does your spidey tradey sense tell you this will all blow over and we can safely wait in the Winchester ?
On another serious note..I'll take this opportunity to say that I hope this illness doesn't affect you or your families and that is does indeed go away sooner than later.Take care and all the best

I try to keep approx 10% of my portfolio in gold. I was a little underweight gold, but now as other assets fall ...

I try to follow this 10% gold, 30% listed property, 30% bonds (in that its 10% hybrids, 10% govt, 10% emerging market), 30% equities (for me it’s mainly US equities).

[Euler]

US 10 year bond slips below 1.30% for the first time ever. Markets are pricing in some turmoil.

[mcgoo]

Fun times..
https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus ... LOUpji8wBo

[ruthlessimon]

I'm thinking 3 opportunities here

1. People are gonna get pneumonia en masse, buy chemical companies, buy oxygen
2. Secondary infections, buy pharmaceuticals, buy antibiotics
3. & maybe this "mask hysteria" can be exploited



The trader mentality

[Naffman]

Here's the RBA's March interest rate decision on the 3rd, chaos since yesterday...imagine if China's PMI miss their forecasts tonight

march rba rate dec..png

[firlandsfarm]

So when the virus is gone why won't markets recover just as quickly but with a small loss for the inconvenience to business?

[sniffer66]

So when the virus is gone why won't markets recover just as quickly but with a small loss for the inconvenience to business?

Was doing some reading this morning and the bounceback is typical. Conservative markets over-reacting. Good time to buy ?

[Diacritical Quark]

So when the virus is gone why won't markets recover just as quickly but with a small loss for the inconvenience to business?

Was doing some reading this morning and the bounceback is typical. Conservative markets over-reacting. Good time to buy ?

I have been trading forex and spreadbetting on and off over the years, my appetite for risk never really allowed me to get too deep into the markets as you can get burned very, very quickly. I have however used one particular "strategy" to excellent effect on and off and usually in these very volatile markets. It may not be to everyone's liking but rather than trying to decide tops and bottoms of trends and when to buy, when to sell is to look for positively correlated markets using a coefficient of at least 0.8 and mean revert the markets. You can take your pick between any number of markets, some of the most successful ones I've had have ben Aud/Usd v Gold, Ftse v Dow, Ftse v Hang Seng and currently scalping Dow v S&P500. If you get the timing right and mean revert them you can make a kililng for very little risk as you don't have to worry about getting the market direction you just have to worry about how far apart the price currently is and in these volatile markets it's usually quite a lot

[Euler]

Best buying opportunity was late Friday night. People dump positions so they don't need to worry over the weekend.

[Diacritical Quark]

Best buying opportunity was late Friday night. People dump positions so they don't need to worry over the weekend.

Absolutely, I very often take advantage of the Friday bounce, sometimes it means worry about the gap on a Sunday night but I tend to find the gaps on indicies aren't as bad as the gaps on stocks. Sometimes I take a hedge so I'm market neutral just before the close but more often than not I just hold and wait for Monday and the markets to mean revert.

[PDC]

Best buying opportunity was late Friday night. People dump positions so they don't need to worry over the weekend.

Did you buy anything, if so what, would be interested to hear?

Futures are indicating lower opens on Monday. Trying to market time is neigh on impossible over the long term.

I have just been reading through all the headlines and articles from September 2019 when everyone was either panic selling or scooping up all these bargains...the message boards were choked with everyone giving their opinions about how now was the time to dump all that cash they had been sitting on into the market or the Bear's were posting "I told you so".

Oh wait a minute, non of that happened....

Bears.png

[firlandsfarm]

Trying to market time is neigh on impossible over the long term.

I would say trying to time the market in the short term (when it's much more important) is nigh on impossible but in the long term (when it's far less important) is much easier as you showed in your graph, just about any entry point would have been profitable.