Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[Diacritical Quark]

So when the virus is gone why won't markets recover just as quickly but with a small loss for the inconvenience to business?

Was doing some reading this morning and the bounceback is typical. Conservative markets over-reacting. Good time to buy ?

I have been trading forex and spreadbetting on and off over the years, my appetite for risk never really allowed me to get too deep into the markets as you can get burned very, very quickly. I have however used one particular "strategy" to excellent effect on and off and usually in these very volatile markets. It may not be to everyone's liking but rather than trying to decide tops and bottoms of trends and when to buy, when to sell is to look for positively correlated markets using a coefficient of at least 0.8 and mean revert the markets. You can take your pick between any number of markets, some of the most successful ones I've had have ben Aud/Usd v Gold, Ftse v Dow, Ftse v Hang Seng and currently scalping Dow v S&P500. If you get the timing right and mean revert them you can make a kililng for very little risk as you don't have to worry about getting the market direction you just have to worry about how far apart the price currently is and in these volatile markets it's usually quite a lot

[Euler]

Best buying opportunity was late Friday night. People dump positions so they don't need to worry over the weekend.

[Diacritical Quark]

Best buying opportunity was late Friday night. People dump positions so they don't need to worry over the weekend.

Absolutely, I very often take advantage of the Friday bounce, sometimes it means worry about the gap on a Sunday night but I tend to find the gaps on indicies aren't as bad as the gaps on stocks. Sometimes I take a hedge so I'm market neutral just before the close but more often than not I just hold and wait for Monday and the markets to mean revert.

[PDC]

Best buying opportunity was late Friday night. People dump positions so they don't need to worry over the weekend.

Did you buy anything, if so what, would be interested to hear?

Futures are indicating lower opens on Monday. Trying to market time is neigh on impossible over the long term.

I have just been reading through all the headlines and articles from September 2019 when everyone was either panic selling or scooping up all these bargains...the message boards were choked with everyone giving their opinions about how now was the time to dump all that cash they had been sitting on into the market or the Bear's were posting "I told you so".

Oh wait a minute, non of that happened....

Bears.png

[firlandsfarm]

Trying to market time is neigh on impossible over the long term.

I would say trying to time the market in the short term (when it's much more important) is nigh on impossible but in the long term (when it's far less important) is much easier as you showed in your graph, just about any entry point would have been profitable.

[PDC]

Just about any entry point would have been profitable.

I would say any of the entry points will be profitable, not just some. You just need to give it time.

[superfrank]

Images released by Nasa show how much pollution levels have dropped by in China



Every cloud has a silver lining!

[ShaunWhite]

Best thing for the planet would be a cull of the worst parasite. 2 or 3 billion fewer people would be about right and if we're amongst them then so be it for the greater good.

[johnsheppard]

Best thing for the planet would be a cull of the worst parasite. 2 or 3 billion fewer people would be about right and if we're amongst them then so be it for the greater good.

You've hurt my feelings. What about ME!?

[ShaunWhite]

Best thing for the planet would be a cull of the worst parasite. 2 or 3 billion fewer people would be about right and if we're amongst them then so be it for the greater good.

You've hurt my feelings. What about ME!?

Maybe you could join a cult and convince yourself you're in one of the 12 tribes who'll just spectate from a mountain top while the cleansing takes place.

[johnsheppard]

[/quote]
Maybe you could join a cult and convince yourself you're in one of the 12 tribes who'll just spectate from a mountain top while the cleansing takes place.
[/quote]

Getting to the top of a mountain looks like a lot of physical exertion....im a bit suss on that plan...One thing I do know is that the other 11 tribes are wrong.....dead wrong.....The cult thing I am OK with...

[firlandsfarm]

… look for positively correlated markets using a coefficient of at least 0.8 and mean revert the markets. You can take your pick between any number of markets, some of the most successful ones I've had have ben Aud/Usd v Gold, Ftse v Dow, Ftse v Hang Seng and currently scalping Dow v S&P500.

It's a common tactic for shares as well, two market leaders. Maybe BP and Shell in oils or Ford and Gen Motors in … well in motors! You still need to decide which is the one that has fallen out of line to know which will move which way or do you double bet that they will both move towards each other?

[Diacritical Quark]

It's a common tactic for shares as well, two market leaders. Maybe BP and Shell in oils or Ford and Gen Motors in … well in motors! You still need to decide which is the one that has fallen out of line to know which will move which way or do you double bet that they will both move towards each other?

If they're "out of line" you just look to mean revert them, market direction doesn't matter one jot. Unless you mean you have to figure out which one to short and which one to long? I tend to use the % change to indicate which one is under/over performing and take entries based on that but you can equally use any number of methods or indicators, stochastics, RSI, Bollingner Bands will all tell you the same thing, or even the good old fashioned Mark I eyeball on a candlestick chart. Once you're in a trade it then doesn't matter if the markets tank or rally you're fairly well hedged. You need to ensure you hold equal value for each instrument though e.g. Long on DIJA index price 25822.4 x £0.50p per tick = 12,911 so therefore short on S&P 500 at 2998.63 x £4.30 per tick = 12,894.

[Diacritical Quark]

If it then all goes to plan you should end up with something like the below, now I wish I could just do straight directional trades as £280 odd quid would be lovely!

[staker72]

I think it all depends on if it all blows over ina couple of weeks and virus is containes or isn't that fatal. If so there will be a bounce, there is soem overcapacity in motor manufacturing for instance so a bit of a shut down probabaly means full tilt production on re-start. I predict there will be soem review of extended supply lines which in my humble opinion have got too long in some cases.
If it does get serious by which I mean substantial fatalities then some industies will be badly affected. It is likly deaths won't be evenly spread, that coudl damage some industies and boost others, lots of inheritences for instance might boost holidays but depress house prices for instance.