Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[Derek27]

All I have saw is the BBC broadcast the 1% of the 1% critical care wards with the patients in the worst conditions struggling to breathe,

Unless you can explain how you've come to that 1% conclusion, you're talking bollocks as usual!

[TraderFred]

I think it’s great that Alex has found an ally in long term serial loser, and probably the worst trader to ever grace this forum, Jeff.

I know it’s only a small sample, though there does seem to be a correlation between scepticism/ verging on conspiracy and being a losing trader too.

I suppose they are used to blaming dark forces for their own shortcomings, be it market manipulation, inside information, betfair controlling their own markets, fake news, government conspiracies.

Though they continue to do it, with such authority and conviction. With the same authority and conviction they give trading related analogies too. Anyone reading from the outside would be forgiven for thinking they actually know what they are talking about !

[TraderFred]

And if you think people are being overly concerned about something that has a 99% chance of survival, next horse that goes off at 100 +, lay it for everything you are worth, and see how you feel about the risk then.

[sionascaig]

All I am saying is that there is such a thing as an acceptable risk. You can't insulate yourself from risk without taking such extreme measures that, ironically, there is a danger of even creating even greater risk.

Some people say, for example, that lives are more important than the economy. However, that argument breaks down when you consider that you need a healthy economy for the NHS to buy drugs. To put it crudely, if the economy ends up fucked because the government has shut down just about every business out there, then the NHS will be fucked too, and people will die.

Jeff

Taiwan has something like 8 deaths and no lockdown - they have a test, track, trace & supported isolation system that works (and that is with twice the population density of the uk)..

==> the "risk" appears to have been largely avoidable and has been created by the morons currently in charge of government

Hindsight is a great thing, but NZ managed to change their approach & are reaping the benefits now.

So yes there is an "acceptable risk" but its a lot lower than the rate we are experiencing by self inflicted own goals.

[Euler]

I think it would be a fun experiment to create a time machine and dump social media into the second world war. I can imagine the debates now.

People arguing that German unification of Europe is a good thing as it would bring many benefits against a fragmented and outdated system. How the government is allowing people to starve with rationing while spending a fortune on building it's military might. How excess deaths in Europe were really just the impact of a particularly bad winter, after all, attempts by Germany to reunify Russia failed because of the bad weather.

Ultimately we will only the correct path through the pandemic when it's over. Till then it's just a judgement on probabilities and there are likely to be errors. Life is best understood backwards, but you have to live it forwards.

[alexmr2]

I think it’s great that Alex has found an ally in long term serial loser, and probably the worst trader to ever grace this forum, Jeff.

I know it’s only a small sample, though there does seem to be a correlation between scepticism/ verging on conspiracy and being a losing trader too.

I suppose they are used to blaming dark forces for their own shortcomings, be it market manipulation, inside information, betfair controlling their own markets, fake news, government conspiracies.

Though they continue to do it, with such authority and conviction. With the same authority and conviction they give trading related analogies too. Anyone reading from the outside would be forgiven for thinking they actually know what they are talking about !

I'm a winning trader as of 7pm on the 18th of December, all £8.18 of profit proves it

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It wouldn't be hard to find a correlation between losing traders and anything given that only 0.5% of people actually win a decent enough amount to pay PC.

It's not conspiracy theories, it's just critical thinking by questioning the logic and statistics as opposed to taking the word of the Government as 100% true when it's obvious that something is off. I think it's the greatest availability cascade of all time.

The fact that such emotionally charged people can trade properly gives me some hope that I can eventually overcome the occasional emotional obstacles preventing me from becoming long term profitable

[TraderFred]

Well done on the trading alexmr2, glad you’ve turned a corner, keep up the good work.

I was only joking with the correlation stuff. Truth is, as Euler said above, nobody knows. I just don’t like how you see people speaking with so much conviction on a subject that nobody can be an expert in.


Also, I seem to have upset sweetlyrics. I was only joking about him too, no offence intended. I just read on this thread or another one that he wasn’t very good at trading.

I guess you shouldn’t believe everything you read on the internet. I am guilty of not fact checking before I reposted what I had read. It was a conspiracy/fake news. Sweetlyrics is actually a very knowledgeable trader, and you could probably learn a lot from him, Alexmr2.

[ANGELS15]

Forgive me if somewhere among the 3000+ posts this point has already been made:

In the media coverage there is a distinct lack of balance and proportion in the way this pandemic is being reported. There is indeed a virus and it will be deadly to a small minority. The vast majority of people if they were to get it would either not even know they had it, or suffer mild symptoms no worse than a common cough or cold. The way the media report it, if you get covid you'll be rushed off to hospital and be hooked up to ventilator.

Unfortunately viruses pick on the weakest people to do their worst and it will be fatal for those with serious underlying health conditions and the elderly. At least these people are easy to identify and will get priority for vaccination.

There is one worrying aspect to this. I looked up the stats for UK cancer deaths. Apparently there are normally around 450 cancer deaths per day along with 1000 daily new diagnoses. Even flu can kill tens of 1000s annually. We don't really hear about that anymore and if people are not able to be seen one wonders what the death figures will be in the future, even the not too distant future.

[Derek27]

It's not conspiracy theories, it's just critical thinking by questioning the logic and statistics as opposed to taking the word of the Government as 100% true when it's obvious that something is off. I think it's the greatest availability cascade of all time.

Are you a robot Alex? You seem to think everybody agrees with the government 100% of the time or 0% of the time. Human beings have brains and can think and apply logic to every situation.

The fact that such emotionally charged people can trade properly gives me some hope that I can eventually overcome the occasional emotional obstacles preventing me from becoming long term profitable

It might not be a good idea to trade if you're extremely angry or upset, but generally, traders put their emotions aside when trading.

[Derek27]

In the media coverage there is a distinct lack of balance and proportion in the way this pandemic is being reported. There is indeed a virus and it will be deadly to a small minority. The vast majority of people if they were to get it would either not even know they had it, or suffer mild symptoms no worse than a common cough or cold. The way the media report it, if you get covid you'll be rushed off to hospital and be hooked up to ventilator.

That's not the impression I get from the media. They've always been clear that it mainly affects the elderly and people with health problems and that most people will recover from it quickly. The reason they have to be so forceful with their messages is that when 1000 people a day are dying unnecessarily, it's sad to say but many people don't care - it's just a number! As long as it's not them and they know of no one who's died they'll keep going out, spread the virus and kill more people without knowing/believing it.

[greenmark]

In the media coverage there is a distinct lack of balance and proportion in the way this pandemic is being reported. There is indeed a virus and it will be deadly to a small minority. The vast majority of people if they were to get it would either not even know they had it, or suffer mild symptoms no worse than a common cough or cold. The way the media report it, if you get covid you'll be rushed off to hospital and be hooked up to ventilator.

That's not the impression I get from the media. They've always been clear that it mainly affects the elderly and people with health problems and that most people will recover from it quickly. The reason they have to be so forceful with their messages is that when 1000 people a day are dying unnecessarily, it's sad to say but many people don't care - it's just a number! As long as it's not them and they know of no one who's died they'll keep going out, spread the virus and kill more people without knowing/believing it.

I would agree with that assessment of people's behaviour.
Hopefully, if this wave peaks like the first, the next week should be the worst, then an inexorable fall subsequently.
But I can't help feeling we messed up before Xmas. Both politically and thru our collective behaviour. Although i recognise some/many have been trying to do the right thing, enough evidently haven't.

[Euler]

Are you a robot Alex? You seem to think everybody agrees with the government 100% of the time or 0% of the time. Human beings have brains and can think and apply logic to every situation.

Amen, spoken like somebody who truly understands risk.

I'm constantly fascinated by way people feel there is a need to be right or wrong. It's probably the biggest mistake I see in the markets. People make a decision then try and find facts to fit that view.

I sit back look at the facts and try and make a decision.

[ANGELS15]

In the media coverage there is a distinct lack of balance and proportion in the way this pandemic is being reported. There is indeed a virus and it will be deadly to a small minority. The vast majority of people if they were to get it would either not even know they had it, or suffer mild symptoms no worse than a common cough or cold. The way the media report it, if you get covid you'll be rushed off to hospital and be hooked up to ventilator.

That's not the impression I get from the media. They've always been clear that it mainly affects the elderly and people with health problems and that most people will recover from it quickly. The reason they have to be so forceful with their messages is that when 1000 people a day are dying unnecessarily, it's sad to say but many people don't care - it's just a number! As long as it's not them and they know of no one who's died they'll keep going out, spread the virus and kill more people without knowing/believing it.

The figures are grim. One thing I recall being disputed a while back was whether the figures represent those who died 'from covid' or 'with covid' i.e covid being mentioned on the death certificate. If you went into hosptal because you had an infection from a bad wound. let's say the infection got worse. In hospital they automaically test you for covid. If you tested positive but were only a mild case and then died from the infection. Are you then put down as a covid death?

I'm not disputing that people are dying or the virus isn't deadly but it's important to seperate out the actual covid deaths from other things that happen at this time like flu deaths, pneumonia etc.

Unless of course they are now doing that.

[sniffer66]

It's also useful to understand that a pre-existing health condition, followed by a Covid 19 death can encompass many illnesses i.e mental health problems, a sprained ankle, broken wrist etc. That skews the figures of those who are dying with existing conditions considerably.

[Dallas]

Originally PHE figures wouldn't allow anyone to recover from covid - ever, once you'd tested positive that was it, it was going to be your cause of death.
You could test positive in March, fully recover in April then get killed in a road accident in July and you would still be counted as a died from Covid.

How that went on for all those months at the start without a single person flagging it up is quite amazing really