Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

A place to discuss anything.
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greenmark
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:52 am
ANGELS15 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:36 am
In the media coverage there is a distinct lack of balance and proportion in the way this pandemic is being reported. There is indeed a virus and it will be deadly to a small minority. The vast majority of people if they were to get it would either not even know they had it, or suffer mild symptoms no worse than a common cough or cold. The way the media report it, if you get covid you'll be rushed off to hospital and be hooked up to ventilator.
That's not the impression I get from the media. They've always been clear that it mainly affects the elderly and people with health problems and that most people will recover from it quickly. The reason they have to be so forceful with their messages is that when 1000 people a day are dying unnecessarily, it's sad to say but many people don't care - it's just a number! As long as it's not them and they know of no one who's died they'll keep going out, spread the virus and kill more people without knowing/believing it.
I would agree with that assessment of people's behaviour.
Hopefully, if this wave peaks like the first, the next week should be the worst, then an inexorable fall subsequently.
But I can't help feeling we messed up before Xmas. Both politically and thru our collective behaviour. Although i recognise some/many have been trying to do the right thing, enough evidently haven't.
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Euler
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:47 am
Are you a robot Alex? You seem to think everybody agrees with the government 100% of the time or 0% of the time. Human beings have brains and can think and apply logic to every situation.
Amen, spoken like somebody who truly understands risk.

I'm constantly fascinated by way people feel there is a need to be right or wrong. It's probably the biggest mistake I see in the markets. People make a decision then try and find facts to fit that view.

I sit back look at the facts and try and make a decision.
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ANGELS15
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:52 am
ANGELS15 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:36 am
In the media coverage there is a distinct lack of balance and proportion in the way this pandemic is being reported. There is indeed a virus and it will be deadly to a small minority. The vast majority of people if they were to get it would either not even know they had it, or suffer mild symptoms no worse than a common cough or cold. The way the media report it, if you get covid you'll be rushed off to hospital and be hooked up to ventilator.
That's not the impression I get from the media. They've always been clear that it mainly affects the elderly and people with health problems and that most people will recover from it quickly. The reason they have to be so forceful with their messages is that when 1000 people a day are dying unnecessarily, it's sad to say but many people don't care - it's just a number! As long as it's not them and they know of no one who's died they'll keep going out, spread the virus and kill more people without knowing/believing it.
The figures are grim. One thing I recall being disputed a while back was whether the figures represent those who died 'from covid' or 'with covid' i.e covid being mentioned on the death certificate. If you went into hosptal because you had an infection from a bad wound. let's say the infection got worse. In hospital they automaically test you for covid. If you tested positive but were only a mild case and then died from the infection. Are you then put down as a covid death?

I'm not disputing that people are dying or the virus isn't deadly but it's important to seperate out the actual covid deaths from other things that happen at this time like flu deaths, pneumonia etc.

Unless of course they are now doing that.
sniffer66
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It's also useful to understand that a pre-existing health condition, followed by a Covid 19 death can encompass many illnesses i.e mental health problems, a sprained ankle, broken wrist etc. That skews the figures of those who are dying with existing conditions considerably.
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Dallas
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Originally PHE figures wouldn't allow anyone to recover from covid - ever, once you'd tested positive that was it, it was going to be your cause of death.
You could test positive in March, fully recover in April then get killed in a road accident in July and you would still be counted as a died from Covid.

How that went on for all those months at the start without a single person flagging it up is quite amazing really
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Kai
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StellaBot wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:52 pm
Is there a vac for aids?
I hope so Stella :(

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Dallas
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The most inaccurate tweet of all times posted 1 year ago today
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
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alexmr2
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Does no one remember the story about the tigers and the wizard that we were all taught at school?

People from a village start disappearing and getting eaten by tigers so the council holds a meeting to discuss how they can solve the issue. The wizard says he can cast a magic spell that will keep the tigers away but he will need people to come and pray for 1hr per day, and it will cost everyone 1 gold coin.

After a week of following the rules, the number of people disappearing starts to go down. A few weeks later some people are still disappearing so the sceptics start to give up and stop giving the wizard their gold coins. Two of the villagers, Derek and Fred start shouting at the sceptics and blaming them for not doing what the wizard says because it's their fault that people are dying. The wizard says that he will now need need 5 gold coins from everyone and 2 hours of praying per day if they want him to get rid of the tigers completely. The council makes the demands of the wizard mandatory and everyone does their part. 4 weeks later the tigers are gone and no one is disappearing.

Everyone thanks the wizard for solving their problem, but the moral is that they were just being fooled by randomness and if none of this happened the tigers would have just gone away anyway
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Derek27
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alexmr2 wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:56 am
Does no one remember the story about the tigers and the wizard that we were all taught at school?

People from a village start disappearing and getting eaten by tigers so the council holds a meeting to discuss how they can solve the issue. The wizard says he can cast a magic spell that will keep the tigers away but he will need people to come and pray for 1hr per day, and it will cost everyone 1 gold coin.

After a week of following the rules, the number of people disappearing starts to go down. A few weeks later some people are still disappearing so the sceptics start to give up and stop giving the wizard their gold coins. Two of the villagers, Derek and Fred start shouting at the sceptics and blaming them for not doing what the wizard says because it's their fault that people are dying. The wizard says that he will now need need 5 gold coins from everyone and 2 hours of praying per day if they want him to get rid of the tigers completely. The council makes the demands of the wizard mandatory and everyone does their part. 4 weeks later the tigers are gone and no one is disappearing.

Everyone thanks the wizard for solving their problem, but the moral is that they were just being fooled by randomness and if none of this happened the tigers would have just gone away anyway
Nice story Alex, but we're not talking about magic spells and praying. We're talking about viruses, which are part of science and has been understood for a hundred odd years.

You say you were taught at school!! It's a waste of time engaging with you because you don't reply to questions, but I'm guessing you think colds are not contagious, they just appear spontaneously. If you were around during the bubonic plague you'd probably think it's a hoax - people die anyway. You don't work on or speak to anyone on the NHS frontline yet you expect us to listen to you about how easily they're coping.

I've spoken to carers at my mother's care home about the crisis and how they're struggling in their other care homes so I know what's going on, and I've heard from a nurse about the situation at my local hospital. You seem to think that our only interaction with society is though mainstream and social media - we all have friends who are real people! :roll:
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

alexmr2 wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:56 am
Does no one remember the story about the tigers and the wizard that we were all taught at school?

People from a village start disappearing and getting eaten by tigers so the council holds a meeting to discuss how they can solve the issue. The wizard says he can cast a magic spell that will keep the tigers away but he will need people to come and pray for 1hr per day, and it will cost everyone 1 gold coin.

After a week of following the rules, the number of people disappearing starts to go down. A few weeks later some people are still disappearing so the sceptics start to give up and stop giving the wizard their gold coins. Two of the villagers, Derek and Fred start shouting at the sceptics and blaming them for not doing what the wizard says because it's their fault that people are dying. The wizard says that he will now need need 5 gold coins from everyone and 2 hours of praying per day if they want him to get rid of the tigers completely. The council makes the demands of the wizard mandatory and everyone does their part. 4 weeks later the tigers are gone and no one is disappearing.

Everyone thanks the wizard for solving their problem, but the moral is that they were just being fooled by randomness and if none of this happened the tigers would have just gone away anyway


Can’t say I’ve ever heard that one, Alexmr2. Although I never went to a school where the headmaster was David Icke.

Keep fighting though Alex, the truth must be told !
SweetLyrics
Posts: 207
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'The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).

We find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country.

While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.'

Stamford University research paper - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484

But you carry on making sarcastic, pointless remarks about David Icke, Fred. You really enhance the forum with your wit, charm and erudition.

Jeff
SweetLyrics
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:57 pm

Speaking with a handful of people who happen to believe the same things you believe don't make you well informed, with greatest respect.
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:38 am
I've spoken to carers at my mother's care home about the crisis and how they're struggling in their other care homes so I know what's going on, and I've heard from a nurse about the situation at my local hospital. You seem to think that our only interaction with society is though mainstream and social media - we all have friends who are real people! :roll:
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

I would argue with you Jeff, though I fear that I will be on the receiving end of yet another expletive-laden angry private message. I am only just getting over yesterday’s.

I will instead concede defeat. You have read a paper, so you must be right. Lockdown should clearly be ended and crowds and normality resumed. I’m sure the hospitals will cope just fine. They’re only pretending to be busy anyway.
SweetLyrics
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:57 pm

Top tip: If you call someone a 'serial loser' (whether in real life or online), it's likely to provoke a reaction.

If you don't like the reaction, don't be a d***. Simples! :D
TraderFred wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:25 am
I would argue with you Jeff, though I fear that I will be on the receiving end of yet another expletive-laden angry private message. I am only just getting over yesterday’s.
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Derek27
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SweetLyrics wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:43 am
'The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).

We find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country.

While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.'

Stamford University research paper - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484

But you carry on making sarcastic, pointless remarks about David Icke, Fred. You really enhance the forum with your wit, charm and erudition.

Jeff
Quite a meaningless statement unless they define what more restrictive means!
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