Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[firlandsfarm]

I think the government simply doesn't want to admit they were wrong after spending 11 or 12 figures of public funds on something which hasn't really achieved much of a different end result, so they are carrying on the act. I'm pretty sure there plan will be to drag it on until the natural death rate falls next spring or summer and then they will use this to claim victory. Then ask everyone to pay them back for saving them by raising max income tax to 60%, VAT to 25% and the retirement age to 80. At least those on 60% PC won't feel so bad then

The Government had to do something because of the flack they were getting from those opposed to doing nothing. They were heavily criticised by the media over the "herd immunity" line, then heavily criticised again over the number of deaths compared to others in Europe ... they were forced into doing something.

It's what I refer to as the criticise culture we live with. When something is announced look for an 'expert' who disagrees and interview them. Current evidence ... look at France. We were told how much better France were dealing with it but there is no comment now that France now has 5th highest number of infections in the world. UK doing better than France (or others) does not make good news, much better to criticise and hound!

[sionascaig]

The Government had to do something because of the flack they were getting from those opposed to doing nothing. They were heavily criticised by the media over the "herd immunity" line, then heavily criticised again over the number of deaths compared to others in Europe ... they were forced into doing something.

It's what I refer to as the criticise culture we live with. When something is announced look for an 'expert' who disagrees and interview them. Current evidence ... look at France. We were told how much better France were dealing with it but there is no comment now that France now has 5th highest number of infections in the world. UK doing better than France (or others) does not make good news, much better to criticise and hound!

Your not proposing they should have done nothing surely?

They were faced with a significant risk (still are) and needed to act. They should be held accountable for those actions.

Bottom line is given the current infection rates is that they have failed and a good measure of that failure is the ongoing spend of £110bn on test track & trace systems that are barely adequate, impact on the economy & number of deaths.

Just read a BBC article that quoted some analysis from Imperial College London that said the area where I live (Edinburgh) which is currently tier 3 could be tier 0 (its a scottish thing) within two weeks - although I won't be able to travel out of Edin as surrounded by higher infection zones !

Anyhow, if its a reasonable projection must be some good news in there somewhere if you can go down through the tiers so quickly...

[Kai]

I have had coronavirus symptoms for 1 week now (age 28).

Wishing you a speedy recovery Alex.

I guess most of those opinions would largely depend on whether you are 28 or 82

I'm just looking forward to the day when this thread doesn't get bumped.

[Derek27]

I have had coronavirus symptoms for 1 week now (age 28).

I hope you get well quickly with no lasting problems.

The main issue is the effect on breathing which I imagine would be worse for people who already have some breathing difficulties whether due to age, smoking or another reason.

That's basically why the country has been and maybe again shut down.

I think that shutting down the country and devasting almost everyone and everything for a virus which is 20% worse than the average flu at most is the biggest availability cascade (overreaction) in history.

It may be 20% worse for you but what about people who died from it and orphans, what percentage would you put on that?

My opinion is based on the statistics which I'm sure as traders you know is the much more rational approach to use as opposed to the emotional driven media "people are dying", yeah 1500 people die every day in the UK under normal circumstances. There is now quite a lot of data such as Sweden which used minimal social restrictions and didn't have much of a different result. If you look at the bigger picture you will find that the death rates are no higher than normal. I believe the last two seasons have been particularly mild with less deaths so now we are now experiencing some regression to the mean. I believe the government and media are using the overtesting and normal seasonal death rate increases to show upwards curves and scare people. The Betfair equivalent is the market noise which is less relevant than the overall trend when looking at the bigger picture.

You say you rely on statistics but haven't published your statistical data: 300 people a day are dying of Covid at present, how many die in total and what's normal? People who state the maths and reasoning, whether you agree with it or not, are at least speaking their brains, whereas you and many others appear to be speaking your heart.

I think the government simply doesn't want to admit they were wrong after spending 11 or 12 figures of public funds on something which hasn't really achieved much of a different end result, so they are carrying on the act.

Can't argue with that. Clearly the flat-line graph below confirms the lockdown made no difference, or are the figures made up and all the intensive care news reports were simply using actors?

Capture.PNG

[alexmr2]

Your not proposing they should have done nothing surely?

I think the initial lockdown was completely justified, but now there is enough data (mainly the approach and results of Sweden) that to continue restrictions is causing more problems than good. I think from July things should have went back to normal with vulnerable people being given options and funding to shield if they choose (many would rather take their chances than live their final years locked away ready to die).

[firlandsfarm]

Your not proposing they should have done nothing surely?

No, I'm saying that. I'm saying that whatever they did/did not do the media will always find an 'expert' to criticise and say it's wrong. Controversy is news, agreement is not. And the 'experts' change their minds ... Sweden did little and our 'experts' said WRONG but some are now starting to think that was the right think to do. And it's not the politicians who are spreading the virus it's the people who ignore the advice. Look at the photos from the summer when lockdown started to be relaxed, the partying that has taken place and otyher gatherings. It should be of no surprise to anyone that we are now experiencing a second wave. It's a fact the virus is spread by actual or near contact ... it's also a fact that avoiding actual or near contact slows the spread. Follow the words here

[alexmr2]

You say you rely on statistics but haven't published your statistical data: 300 people a day are dying of Covid at present, how many die in total and what's normal? People who state the maths and reasoning, whether you agree with it or not, are at least speaking their brains, whereas you and many others appear to be speaking your heart.

Can't argue with that. Clearly the flat-line graph below confirms the lockdown made no difference, or are the figures made up and all the intensive care news reports were simply using actors?
Capture.PNG

I have posted some of these videos a couple of times in this thread which present the statistics much better than I ever could. There is a few of them on this scientist/journalists channel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac

In summary, yes deaths are going up and down, but this is completely normal. IMO this is just like being fooled by randomness and noise in the markets. What is the point at looking at the covid wave in isolation without the long-term data for death rates over the last 5 or 10 years? The death rates go up and down seasonally each year with the flu turning up and wiping out a wave of people. A similar thing happened with coronavirus although it seemed to happen in a shorter time period, and there were some excess deaths because of regression to the mean after 2 milder seasons with less deaths.

My view is based on:

1. Me having experienced the virus first hand (not much worse than normal flu)
2. Logic - no real lockdown if there was still billions of social interactions in supermarkets, average death age is over the average life expectancy, Nightgale hospitals going unusued etc
3. Statistics - death rates if compared to previous long-term trends are nothing unusual, 1500+ deaths per day in the UK happens anyway under normal circumstances

From the outside many people see this type of view as heartless, but I honestly believe the knock-on effects of the way it is being handled (preventing other illnesses with higher mortality rates being treated etc) is worse than carrying on as normal (with the vulnerable still being allowed to shield from the virus if they choose)

[Derek27]

[
I have posted some of these videos a couple of times in this thread which present the statistics much better than I ever could. There is a few of them on this scientist/journalists channel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac

In summary, yes deaths are going up and down, but this is completely normal. IMO this is just like being fooled by randomness and noise in the markets. What is the point at looking at the covid wave in isolation without the long-term data for death rates over the last 5 or 10 years? The death rates go up and down seasonally each year with the flu turning up and wiping out a wave of people. A similar thing happened with coronavirus although it seemed to happen in a shorter time period, and there were some excess deaths because of regression to the mean after 2 milder seasons with less deaths.

My view is based on:

1. Me having experienced the virus first hand (not much worse than normal flu)
2. Logic - no real lockdown if there was still billions of social interactions in supermarkets, average death age is over the average life expectancy, Nightgale hospitals going unusued etc
3. Statistics - death rates if compared to previous long-term trends are nothing unusual, 1500+ deaths per day in the UK happens anyway under normal circumstances

From the outside many people see this type of view as heartless, but I honestly believe the knock-on effects of the way it is being handled (preventing other illnesses with higher mortality rates being treated etc) is worse than carrying on as normal (with the vulnerable still being allowed to shield from the virus if they choose)

I've never heard of Ivor Cummings so I'd rather go along with the mainstream scientists. As for what your views are based on:

1. Your own experience is irrelevant because it's a survey of one! You're also just 28 and not in the higher risk group.

2. Pubs, restaurant, sporting events, concerts and all mass gatherings were cancelled, city centres were like ghost towns, that's a lockdown! The fact that you can still buy food and a minority disregarded it is insignificant.

3. It's not the death rate but the fluctuation in death rates that's important. Is it just a coincidence that it went down drastically after the lockdown and starts going up after people were socialising again? And when has 1000 people a day died in the UK as a result of flu?

Vulnerable people can't always shield because many elderly people don't have anyone to do their shopping and these people are being put at risk and could be dying needlessly.

[gazuty]

The survey of literature that I have read keeps coming back to the same basis for spread.

Confined indoor space. Heavy breathing, singing, extended time. So weddings, funerals - lots of hugging and talking loudly over the top of noise, the pub and singing football anthems etc.

Then from those super spreader events someone works at an aged care home or lives with an elderly parent ...

Latest article on super spreaders https://vis.sciencemag.org/covid-cluste ... um=Twitter

[firlandsfarm]

The survey of literature that I have read keeps coming back to the same basis for spread.

Confined indoor space. Heavy breathing, singing, extended time. So weddings, funerals - lots of hugging and talking loudly over the top of noise, the pub and singing football anthems etc.

Then from those super spreader events someone works at an aged care home or lives with an elderly parent ...

Latest article on super spreaders https://vis.sciencemag.org/covid-cluste ... um=Twitter

Amen to that Gazuty but like the tier structure why is it so difficult for people to see it? I live in Tier 1 and as a person who is probably 'at risk' (didn't receive notification but fit the definition) I have no desire to travel to a higher tier region but if I had to I would look up what that meant by going to that region. All this crap about how complicated it is ... if you live here it's this but if you live there it's something else is just the media looking for a bit of controversial news. With an extremely small exception people only live in one place so only need to know about the restrictions of that place but if they can (are allowed to) travel then you look up the restriction for where you are going. It's not rocket science and the interpretation just requires a little common sense. If it says "no gatherings of more than 6" don't ask if you can have 7 because of "XYZ". The guidelines cannot be expected to cover every possible eventuality, again it's just the media looking to exploit the criticism culture we live in.

[Archery1969]

Another lockdown - Boris speaking at 4.00pm. FML.

[Derek27]

Another lockdown - Boris speaking at 4.00pm. FML.

What a stupid time to make an announcement.

[firlandsfarm]

Another lockdown - Boris speaking at 4.00pm. FML.

Yep and word has got around ... went shopping just to buy a roast for tonight and it was manic. People queuing outside the shops in the rain, welcome to the new Britain! What does it take these idiots to realise we are not going to run out of stuff. This herd may not be immune but it sure can panic (that's after they have spread the virus around as much as possible). Oh well. if the worst come to the worst I can go out and shoot a deer!

[Dallas]

Last night they were saying meetings over the weekend and statement Monday with Wed poss a lockdown date.

But considering the speed and change of timing I suspect it coming into force as of midnight tonight to run 1st till 30th Nov

[Derek27]

Another lockdown - Boris speaking at 4.00pm. FML.

What a stupid time to make an announcement.

He must have read this thread, he's delayed it until 5:00pm.