Exchange games on Betfair.
No and I tell you what I found many years ago. I used the API to collect information on all the hands of exchange poker, something like 12,000 games if I remember.
With a poker head on I was trying to see if there was an edge.... there wasn't. Doesn't matter which cards are dealt as hole cards, each 1 of the 4 players has roughly a 25% chance of winning (over the data I mined anyway), its basically random.
With a poker head on I was trying to see if there was an edge.... there wasn't. Doesn't matter which cards are dealt as hole cards, each 1 of the 4 players has roughly a 25% chance of winning (over the data I mined anyway), its basically random.
-
- Posts: 1027
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
I use to know the market maker for exchange games when they first started, he laughed all the time about how poor value he was offering but still people kept taking the odds thinking they had a system. I lost touch with him after 2015 but i am pretty sure he made vast profits 24/7 over many years. Dont know if he still does it or if Betfair took over the market making activities.
Basically, its a mugs game like those machines in betting shops. At certain points you might be lucky in spoting a short trend but sooner rather than later you will get burnt and end up chasing loses all the way to the poor house.
Basically, its a mugs game like those machines in betting shops. At certain points you might be lucky in spoting a short trend but sooner rather than later you will get burnt and end up chasing loses all the way to the poor house.