Exchange games on Betfair.

[telboy5]

Hi, Has Bet Angel ever made a bot for the Exchange games on Befair, or who has ? Thanks.

[rik]

if you want to be profitable stay away from any games. If there was a way to beat one, whoever designed the game made a mistake, your playing against betfair not against other people

[garyk1968]

No and I tell you what I found many years ago. I used the API to collect information on all the hands of exchange poker, something like 12,000 games if I remember.

With a poker head on I was trying to see if there was an edge.... there wasn't. Doesn't matter which cards are dealt as hole cards, each 1 of the 4 players has roughly a 25% chance of winning (over the data I mined anyway), its basically random.

[Archery1969]

I use to know the market maker for exchange games when they first started, he laughed all the time about how poor value he was offering but still people kept taking the odds thinking they had a system. I lost touch with him after 2015 but i am pretty sure he made vast profits 24/7 over many years. Dont know if he still does it or if Betfair took over the market making activities.

Basically, its a mugs game like those machines in betting shops. At certain points you might be lucky in spoting a short trend but sooner rather than later you will get burnt and end up chasing loses all the way to the poor house.

[wearthefoxhat]

Thought I'd have a go at trading the poker exchange games.

Basic strategy I used was to wait for the flop (3 community cards) then take a view on a hand, usually the 1st or 2nd favourite, then trade out after the turn (4th street).

Main findings was that mozilla didn't work well as a browser, Microsoft Edge was better.
The cash out button was accurate with it's offers, and sometimes offered a little more.
Their software is accurate at each stage with regard the odds on offer, so no obvious edge there.
Used the standard speed as I felt the turbo one would be too quick.
Stakes are scaleable as there is plenty of liquidity at each stage.

Reckon it's possible to get banned from the exchange games section. (poker)

pokerExch.png

[rik]

Thought I'd have a go at trading the poker exchange games.

Basic strategy I used was to wait for the flop (3 community cards) then take a view on a hand, usually the 1st or 2nd favourite, then trade out after the turn (4th street).

Main findings was that mozilla didn't work well as a browser, Microsoft Edge was better.
The cash out button was accurate with it's offers, and sometimes offered a little more.
Their software is accurate at each stage with regard the odds on offer, so no obvious edge there.
Used the standard speed as I felt the turbo one would be too quick.
Stakes are scaleable as there is plenty of liquidity at each stage.

Reckon it's possible to get banned from the exchange games section. (poker)



pokerExch.png

Your playing against betfair right, they cant be stupid enough to program a beatable poker game, what nonsense

[megarain]

Many years ago I dabbled in this - especially the exchange poker.

The main market maker who was non-Betfair was told he couldnt market make at best price/paid more comm.

He was making a ton - the P/L sheet was always 60 pages behind real-time. Sometimes, u would get whales or people who didnt understand who would take evens about 4.0 chances.

One day, I beat a guy for a tidy sum over about 90 mins - then the games wetn offline (as they used to do a lot).

Often wondered how much he would have lost.

The side games, back in the day, were beatable. Havent looked for over 10 yrs.

[wearthefoxhat]

A little harder tonight.

Certain starting hands play better 4-ways and it's important to factor in blockers too.

Chart3rdAug.png

[jamesedwards]

A little harder tonight.

Certain starting hands play better 4-ways and it's important to factor in blockers too.


Chart3rdAug.png

Surely the odds are always in favour of the main market maker (whomever that may be)? Only way to make money long term is to offer up odds ahead of the maker and have your bet taken?

[rik]

Many years ago I dabbled in this - especially the exchange poker.

The main market maker who was non-Betfair was told he couldnt market make at best price/paid more comm.

Ok I didnt realise you could get matched by other poeple as well not just the Betfair bot.
There is significant turnover? Youd get your offers matched most times if you offered best price ahead of the market maker?

[wearthefoxhat]

Many years ago I dabbled in this - especially the exchange poker.

The main market maker who was non-Betfair was told he couldnt market make at best price/paid more comm.

Ok I didnt realise you could get matched by other poeple as well not just the Betfair bot.
There is significant turnover? Youd get your offers matched most times if you offered best price ahead of the market maker?

Yes, although Betfair offer the majority of the liquidity and auto calculate the odds at each stage. (Hence possible ban if you win long term)

The times I've logged on turnover not very high, although it's available 24/7.


@jamesedwards.

Surely the odds are always in favour of the main market maker (whomever that may be)? Only way to make money long term is to offer up odds ahead of the maker and have your bet taken?

Betfair are the main market maker, although there are gaps where odds can be offered. You don't have to take the odds on offer.


I do have a background in playing poker, and the odds set multi way are about right. The only thing to overcome is do you trust Betfair to offer a fair game and not skew the outcome against you on the river....My view is they are fair and if anyone that has played poker seriously either in a card room or on-line, do know bad beats exist.

The main difference to the software, compared to 10 years ago, is the cash-out option. As said earlier, the offers are right, sometimes a little more, so maybe that's where an edge can be seen. Of course, it can be ignored and you can use your own exit strategy.

Best approach is be guided by the starting hands and those that play best multi-way.
Not necessary to get involved every hand.
Best opportunities are after the deal, the flop. Look to close out after the turn if still in the trade. (sometimes you get the max if you can't lose)
It's hard to make a pair in holdem.
Use only a set % of the bank when entering a trade.
Close out green/red after turn card.

[elofan0]

tried this years ago .......... my advice is stay away ..you can get beat when your in the lowest odds that you think you cant be beat
..your playing something thats generated not like soccer or horses
https://x-feeder.com/

[sniffer66]

tried this years ago .......... my advice is stay away ..you can get beat when your in the lowest odds that you think you cant be beat
..your playing something thats generated not like soccer or horses
https://x-feeder.com/

Same. I played around with that soft during the first Covid lockdown when there was zero sport to trade, even using simming and only entering based on variance way above average i.e due a downswing. There isnt an edge you can exploit long term - as far as I know

[megarain]

There used to be 40-80k a game.

I had a Bot that would offer at B1,B2,B3 etc. Sometimes, a whale would sweep down to B6.

The Bot developer went missing, which was a real shame.

If there was a Bot I had a strategy for Baccarat I always wanted to try, but now it's well down the 'to-do' list.

[wearthefoxhat]

tried this years ago .......... my advice is stay away ..you can get beat when your in the lowest odds that you think you cant be beat
..your playing something thats generated not like soccer or horses
https://x-feeder.com/

Thanks for info. My overall preference is manual trades for now.

tried this years ago .......... my advice is stay away ..you can get beat when your in the lowest odds that you think you cant be beat
..your playing something thats generated not like soccer or horses
https://x-feeder.com/

Same. I played around with that soft during the first Covid lockdown when there was zero sport to trade, even using simming and only entering based on variance way above average i.e due a downswing. There isnt an edge you can exploit long term - as far as I know

Don't think there's a value edge as the algo calculates the right odds each round. The only edge will be the choice of hand going forward.