Betfair Account Restrictions & closed accounts - Getting them removed and accounts reopened

News, chat and debate about the Betfair betting exchange.
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Kai
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Morbius wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 11:32 am
they have a gambling problem
Surely the only gambling problem that traders have is that making money can get too addictive. So technically they are right.
zippus
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Interesting to note that Flutter's 6 month share price (-5%) has performed poorly when compared to Entain's (+45%). I'm wondering if any of this reflects the mess Flutter has got itself into with the affordability checks.
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jamesedwards
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zippus wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 4:32 pm
Interesting to note that Flutter's 6 month share price (-5%) has performed poorly when compared to Entain's (+45%). I'm wondering if any of this reflects the mess Flutter has got itself into with the affordability checks.
I would guess more likely a reflection of growth and future plans for trading outside the UK. It would seem the uk is likely to be very stagnant for the next few years so focus will be on performance and share in other markets to drive future profits.
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Morbius
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 12:48 pm
Morbius wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 11:32 am
My guess is with this that rather than seeing something insidious behind it all that this is connected to several problems that BF may be experiencing. Namely to satisfy legal regulatory frameworks, to combat people trying to claim money back by claiming/proving that they have a gambling problem and increased levels of fraudulent activity on the site... That's my take on it
I doubt claiming money back would be an issue - compulsive gamblers have tried that one before. I remember one loser who got around his exclusion trying to claim back a quarter of a million, the judge ruled that he would have lost it anyway! Pretty stupid reasoning but I guess that's the common perception of the courts.

I'm just speculating a bit here Derek because I don't know the reason. I've known numerous cases where people got refunded but it was more to do with the regulatory framework and fraudulent activity really and I just chucked a third reason in. Maybe its several reasons combined.

Given how stupidly over regulated many industries have become then I can imagine this being a real headache for BF. I worked as a financial advisor in 1998 to 99 before I went into poker which meant studying my FPC 1-3. I remember how thousands of fixed and independent FAs were driven from the industry because of intense regulation brought in by the FSA in 1986. I know it's to protect the public but as is often the case the regulation goes too far.
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napshnap
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zippus wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 4:32 pm
Interesting to note that Flutter's 6 month share price (-5%) has performed poorly when compared to Entain's (+45%). I'm wondering if any of this reflects the mess Flutter has got itself into with the affordability checks.
Let's keep our fingers crossed in a hope that genius bf managers won't decide that the exchange is bad for business.
BeastofBrine
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I've been browsing this thread with a sense of dread, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Has anyone here started any contingency planning with respect to what they'll do if trading/betting on the exchange becomes untenable? Those for whom retirement is not an option and normal careers are utterly distasteful, obviously.

I've had a brief look at the sharp bookies that can be accessed abroad and noticed that they typically have API's attached to them, suggesting that trading set-ups might be possible; though I do see lots of people complaining that the likes of Pinnacle had their heyday long ago, and that a lot of markets now have ghastly overrounds. Setting up somewhere like Gibraltar could work if the latter is overblown.

The other approach that could work is realising the GC's nightmare and taking the unregulated route: I've seen at least one blockchain based bookie. If a genuine decentralised exchange were organised, it would be very difficult to stop anyone, anywhere using it.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts.
AlexisMartin
Posts: 60
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:26 pm

BeastofBrine wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:59 am
I've been browsing this thread with a sense of dread, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Has anyone here started any contingency planning with respect to what they'll do if trading/betting on the exchange becomes untenable? Those for whom retirement is not an option and normal careers are utterly distasteful, obviously.

I've had a brief look at the sharp bookies that can be accessed abroad and noticed that they typically have API's attached to them, suggesting that trading set-ups might be possible; though I do see lots of people complaining that the likes of Pinnacle had their heyday long ago, and that a lot of markets now have ghastly overrounds. Setting up somewhere like Gibraltar could work if the latter is overblown.

The other approach that could work is realising the GC's nightmare and taking the unregulated route: I've seen at least one blockchain based bookie. If a genuine decentralised exchange were organised, it would be very difficult to stop anyone, anywhere using it.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts.
Exactly my feelings (the dread reading this thread)
tumby
Posts: 32
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BeastofBrine wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:59 am
I've been browsing this thread with a sense of dread, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Has anyone here started any contingency planning with respect to what they'll do if trading/betting on the exchange becomes untenable? Those for whom retirement is not an option and normal careers are utterly distasteful, obviously.

I've had a brief look at the sharp bookies that can be accessed abroad and noticed that they typically have API's attached to them, suggesting that trading set-ups might be possible; though I do see lots of people complaining that the likes of Pinnacle had their heyday long ago, and that a lot of markets now have ghastly overrounds. Setting up somewhere like Gibraltar could work if the latter is overblown.

The other approach that could work is realising the GC's nightmare and taking the unregulated route: I've seen at least one blockchain based bookie. If a genuine decentralised exchange were organised, it would be very difficult to stop anyone, anywhere using it.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts.
I share your sense of dread. My sole income is from Betfair trading and like yourself I cannot imagine working in a conventional job again.

The impact of moving away from BetFair and the UK to other countries and venues is likely quite different for each of us depending on our style. I think it will depend on how dependent on volume through the platform your approach is. For my trading volume is ciritcal so I do not believe I will be able to make money at all in the future. A test I have done a number of times is to run my algo on Betfair and BetDaq simultaneously on the same market with all the same settings. At the end of the events I am usually small down on BetDaq and nicely up on BetFair. The fact is the volume on other platforms is not the same, in fact for a while I tested my horse racing algos on BetDaq, if they survived that experience I knew they would work well on BetFair!

So for me, I am sure that if the changes that are coming have a large impact on BetFair volume then I will have to find a new direction in life! I used to be a financial markets trader so I am starting to contemplate a return to that way of life. Not a great thought, Hedge Funds on average underperform the major equity indices, the 2020 average return was 10.29% compared to the S&P 500 18.4% (source Barclays Hedge Fund Indices). A return of 10% pa would require a very large bank to produce an adequate income!

Whatever route you take good luck!
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Kai
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Ye, imho it's always a sensible idea to think about potential alternatives regardless what happens with Betfair, so always thought it's sensible to discuss alternatives or to compile a small alternatives list in a thread or something, about markets that are most similar to a betting exchange like Betfair and with most similar characteristics etc, so that people could ideally (more or less) make use of their existing skill sets and experience.

Providing people had any real incentive to share some of their research and stuff, there's enough anxiety around on a global scale without worrying about these sorts of things.

Obviously, stuff like Football Index didn't end well, although smaller niche markets like Betfair do seem to pop up from time to time. Investing overall can be interesting but I would primarily be interested in "day trading" more and HFT stuff.
zippus
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

The crypto currency markets look quite similar to me. They are highly volatile and would need stop losses in place etc to manage risk. The key downsides compared to the betting markets are the relatively high transaction costs and the tax implications associated with gains.
zippus
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

BeastofBrine wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 8:59 am
I've been browsing this thread with a sense of dread, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Has anyone here started any contingency planning with respect to what they'll do if trading/betting on the exchange becomes untenable? Those for whom retirement is not an option and normal careers are utterly distasteful, obviously.

I've had a brief look at the sharp bookies that can be accessed abroad and noticed that they typically have API's attached to them, suggesting that trading set-ups might be possible; though I do see lots of people complaining that the likes of Pinnacle had their heyday long ago, and that a lot of markets now have ghastly overrounds. Setting up somewhere like Gibraltar could work if the latter is overblown.

The other approach that could work is realising the GC's nightmare and taking the unregulated route: I've seen at least one blockchain based bookie. If a genuine decentralised exchange were organised, it would be very difficult to stop anyone, anywhere using it.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts.
I totally agree with your sentiment concerning blockchain and a decentralised exchange. If you start to demonise gambling and move towards prohibition, it will just get pushed underground. I don't believe many people - and certainty not governments - will want this to happen. So they just need to be careful that they don't over-regulate. Moreover, they should start reigning in monopolies like BF that are claiming powers way beyond the current regulatory requirements all under the guise of 'social responsibility'.
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Kai
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Would clearing up the dark pool of Betfair come at a big cost of liquidity or would it bring more new money into play?
zippus
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Kai wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 1:21 pm
Would clearing up the dark pool of Betfair come at a big cost of liquidity or would it bring more new money into play?
I just see big threats to BF's liquidity. For every winner, there has to be a loser. Take out the losers, even temporarily whilst these affordability checks are underway, the money available for winners will start to dry up. I'm not sure there is that much more 'new money' in the U.K. Expansion overseas will be key to growing liquidity in my view.
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Morbius
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zippus wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 1:38 pm
Kai wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 1:21 pm
Would clearing up the dark pool of Betfair come at a big cost of liquidity or would it bring more new money into play?
I just see big threats to BF's liquidity. For every winner, there has to be a loser. Take out the losers, even temporarily whilst these affordability checks are underway, the money available for winners will start to dry up. I'm not sure there is that much more 'new money' in the U.K. Expansion overseas will be key to growing liquidity in my view.

As a trader you don't need more liquidity. You just need enough liquidity. The betting market needs exchanges so they aren't going anywhere soon. An analogy could be swimming a mile in length. You don't need more water to swim a mile. You just need enough water to sustain you body weight and swimming a mile can be done in a 50m pool.

There has been dark liquidity in financial markets for a long time. Its not always a bad thing either as it has pros and cons. They offer advantages to certain operators who without that ability to trade discreetly at better prices than they would get because of market impact may take their business elsewhere.

Dark liquidity and icebergs are just another obstacle a trader has to defeat along their trading life. You can't have it hunky dory year after year in risk markets I'm afraid.
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Morbius
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Kai wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 1:21 pm
Would clearing up the dark pool of Betfair come at a big cost of liquidity or would it bring more new money into play?
As is often the case, big players need methods of operation not available to the masses to attract them to the game and allow them to operate on a larger level. But its difficult to answer a question without the relevant facts or enough of them so all we can do is speculate anyway but in terms of trading volatility, this may be irrelevant. I'm not saying your point is irrelevant just that getting the facts is so difficult that the point is moot
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