Bookies price questions

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alexmr2
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1) Does anyone know if the odds on bookies websites automatically shorten as back money comes onto a runner, or do they just follow the exchange no how much liability they are taking?

2) Has anyone ever tried value betting with bookies when their odds are higher than the exchange price near SP or the bulk of the volume of the crowds (as was mentioned in someone's recent Youtube video)?

3) Has anyone ever tried value lay betting on the exchange at odds equal to or lower than the bookies are offering at the bottom of the exchange range (near SP). The idea being that you are doing exactly the same thing as a profitable bookmaker is doing, although they may be losing value on these bets and making their profits from their other ones.

I imagine even if 2 and 3 were possible, it wouldn't be easy to get a decent margin
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Derek27
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Location: UK

alexmr2 wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:21 pm
1) Does anyone know if the odds on bookies websites automatically shorten as back money comes onto a runner, or do they just follow the exchange no how much liability they are taking?

2) Has anyone ever tried value betting with bookies when their odds are higher than the exchange price near SP or the bulk of the volume of the crowds (as was mentioned in someone's recent Youtube video)?

3) Has anyone ever tried value lay betting on the exchange at odds equal to or lower than the bookies are offering at the bottom of the exchange range (near SP). The idea being that you are doing exactly the same thing as a profitable bookmaker is doing, although they may be losing value on these bets and making their profits from their other ones.

I imagine even if 2 and 3 were possible, it wouldn't be easy to get a decent margin
1) When I was arbing a few years ago, most bookies operated independently from the exchange, but I felt Ladbrokes were hard-wired to the exchange and automatically knocked prices down when they were backed on the exchange. Either that or they were just quick to react.

2) 'Value' betting is placing bets that have a better chance of winning than the odds imply. A lower price on the exchange doesn't necessarily mean it's value unless you're arbing. I've made money from bookies by both, betting on horse racing and arbing.

3) 2 & 3 involve the same scenario, when the bookie's odds are higher than the exchange, the exchange odds are lower than the bookies. In that instant, it's most likely that the bookies have got it wrong as the exchange works to 100% so it doesn't sound a good reason to lay.

Bookies make a profit but not on every race. They make a fair amount of cock-ups so it's certainly not wise to lay any horse below the price they do and feel confident that you've got value.
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alexmr2
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Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:36 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:21 pm
1) Does anyone know if the odds on bookies websites automatically shorten as back money comes onto a runner, or do they just follow the exchange no how much liability they are taking?

2) Has anyone ever tried value betting with bookies when their odds are higher than the exchange price near SP or the bulk of the volume of the crowds (as was mentioned in someone's recent Youtube video)?

3) Has anyone ever tried value lay betting on the exchange at odds equal to or lower than the bookies are offering at the bottom of the exchange range (near SP). The idea being that you are doing exactly the same thing as a profitable bookmaker is doing, although they may be losing value on these bets and making their profits from their other ones.

I imagine even if 2 and 3 were possible, it wouldn't be easy to get a decent margin
1) When I was arbing a few years ago, most bookies operated independently from the exchange, but I felt Ladbrokes were hard-wired to the exchange and automatically knocked prices down when they were backed on the exchange. Either that or they were just quick to react.

2) 'Value' betting is placing bets that have a better chance of winning than the odds imply. A lower price on the exchange doesn't necessarily mean it's value unless you're arbing. I've made money from bookies by both, betting on horse racing and arbing.

3) 2 & 3 involve the same scenario, when the bookie's odds are higher than the exchange, the exchange odds are lower than the bookies. In that instant, it's most likely that the bookies have got it wrong as the exchange works to 100% so it doesn't sound a good reason to lay.

Bookies make a profit but not on every race. They make a fair amount of cock-ups so it's certainly not wise to lay any horse below the price they do and feel confident that you've got value.
Thanks it makes sense. I always wondered if the majority of betting money goes onto bookmaker websites, it could be used to predict the next move on the exchange
Emmson
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Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Bookies odds will follow betfair until the cows come home inc Bet 365 however on dogs as the movements are so rapid that makes it difficult for them. When I was arbing and before I got closed down that's where I found most opportunities. Furthermore as I've mentioned on here a couple of times, on the dogs over time I was winning with the bookies and losing on the exchange which is the opposite of what I wanted.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

alexmr2 wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:09 pm
it could be used to predict the next move on the exchange
Years ago maybe but I think you'll be behind the curve unless you're automating using a bookmaker price feed service.
https://odds-feed.com/bookmakers-api/
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

I remember even a few years ago it could be very difficult to beat the prices. When I was purely punting I would notice a selection had dropped from 3.3 to 3.1 on the exchange but was still showing as 9/4 with the bookies. In the few seconds it would take to go to the counter and try and get that 9/4 you would be told the 9/4 had gone and it was now 2/1 or 15/8. Also many bookie online sites always seem to be half a point or more short on the odds on show in the shops.

I'd notice there were the odd shrewd punters that would occasionally beat the price, usually they would have their ticket already written out and be standing a few feet from the counter. However they would usually soon find themselves barred if they managed to beat the price moves too often.
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LeTiss
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

A few years back, bookmakers operated totally independent of the exchanges. You'd quite often see selections backed on BF that still hadn't moved with Sportsbooks. There were many arbing opportunities and it was pretty lucrative. Unfortunately, the bookies soon caught on and started closing down accounts, or restricting punters to £2 bets. I went from having 14 accounts to 2. These days, they are far more integrated with exchange activity, so it's difficult getting those opportunities

Q3 is interesting and made me chuckle because that was an idea I had for a strategy many moons back. I knew how much money Bet365 were raking in, so decided to lay prices that matched there's......if they are raking in millions, then I'll be too.....right? It wasn't as profitbale as I'd hoped. In fact, I got stung a few times, so binned it
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