For analysis purposes, I want to see how a handful of strategies perform in different types of markets. For example, a race with: a clear fav, two short priced favs, three, four etc. My question is, mathematically, how do I define this?
Has anybody got a calculation they've used/are using to 'define' the type of market in that moment? I was thinking of turning the odds into implied probabilities and then using these values 0%100% in the calculation?
Anybody got any ideas?
Calculating the type of market
One way to do it is by summing the implied probabilities and counting how many animals it takes to get to 60% or 90% or whatever threshold makes sense.CallumPerry wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:04 pmFor analysis purposes, I want to see how a handful of strategies perform in different types of markets. For example, a race with: a clear fav, two short priced favs, three, four etc. My question is, mathematically, how do I define this?
Has anybody got a calculation they've used/are using to 'define' the type of market in that moment? I was thinking of turning the odds into implied probabilities and then using these values 0%100% in the calculation?
Anybody got any ideas?

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The red text is just by eye balling it, I've decided on the labels 'Fav' if there is one strong favourite, 'Duo' for two and 'Try' for three, maybe I also need a 'Competitive' if there are more than three.
My question is, how would you use these cumulative frequency values to arrive at the red text labels? What could be a sensible threshold to set? Does anybody else do anything similar to this to analyse how they perform in different types of markets? I'm interested in reading others' thoughts too, if anybody has got anything to add?
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For many years I've been calculating a value I call implied average winning percentage (IAWP) for events/races. It's based on normalized percentages at the time data is collected, where 50% is 0.5 (of a win), e.g. a 3 runner race might be 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2.CallumPerry wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:04 pmFor analysis purposes, I want to see how a handful of strategies perform in different types of markets. For example, a race with: a clear fav, two short priced favs, three, four etc. My question is, mathematically, how do I define this?
Has anybody got a calculation they've used/are using to 'define' the type of market in that moment? I was thinking of turning the odds into implied probabilities and then using these values 0%100% in the calculation?
Anybody got any ideas?
The IAWP calculation would be(0.5^2)+(0.3^2)+(0.2^2) = 0.38. This splits the race into two parts, i.e, >=0.38 and <0.38. Using this calc, only the favourite would qualify. Similarly, in your last example, only the favourite would qualify, excluding 2nd fav.
Using this method allows for analysis of different markets, or groups within markets, that tends to be less noisy than bare strike rates or P/L figures.