How do you know if you have a margin?

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sionascaig
Posts: 455
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

I passed the results from 1000 races to stats expert to see if the strategy I was using had a margin that was statistically significant. His response was quite interesting hence the post...

The margin in this case was 1% from 1000 races.

He reckoned you could be only 60% sure it was a genuine margin. To get up to over 95% certainly he recommended a sample size of 100,000.

I suspect this is because the margin was so small (harder to detect)... Anyhow thought it was interesting so decided to share.
Anbell
Posts: 1016
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

sionascaig wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:59 am
I passed the results from 1000 races to stats expert to see if the strategy I was using had a margin that was statistically significant. His response was quite interesting hence the post...

The margin in this case was 1% from 1000 races.

He reckoned you could be only 60% sure it was a genuine margin. To get up to over 95% certainly he recommended a sample size of 100,000.

I suspect this is because the margin was so small (harder to detect)... Anyhow thought it was interesting so decided to share.
It depends a lot on the median price
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