Credibility

[arbitrage16]

the happiness:effort ratio is poor value

When you can see the end ahead and you realise the state pension is about £150 a week, you might wonder if toeing the line for 20 years, building a pension, buying a house etc might have been worth doing. Gotta get your low level Maslow needs banked.

Graft till 50 and fun after that was always my goal. 32 adult years working, hopefully 32 adult years playing seemed like a doable thing.

The counter to that would be that you've spent the 'best' - physical fitness, opportunities for fun, appetite for risk and adventure - years of your life slogging to make someone else rich.

In my opinion the gamble is whether or not people get out of the rat race unscathed - mental health, body in working order - to enjoy some good years, probably with a spouse who is also (hopefully) still in good nick.

Perhaps the last wishes of the dying are instructive here, and it's rare that you hear people on their death bed say "I wish I'd worked more, I wish I'd put more by for my pension"

[ShaunWhite]

You've made a good point. People keep banging on about PC, a badge and membership of a club but it's your lifetime gross that really counts.

Using the tax you pay as a measure is so 2010, take a look at Google, Amazon & Starbucks

I don't know if it's a lack of ambition but I rarely see new people start by planning ahead and getting some tax avoidance in place. Or maybe it's over ambition and thinking they'll be so rich that fees won't be problem..

[Morbius]

LeTiss brought up the knotty issue of assessing the creditability of advice again but it got lost in that thread. PC is one way but even a lucky newbie can pay that until the wheels fall off, and I don't pay PC even though this pays my bills, so....

What's missing that other trades have ? an Association/Federation/Institute of Master Sports Traders.
£20 quid a year, you sent in your PL, you get a certificate and a sticker for your van The big guys can apply for a gold certificate ...but that's £40.

I might do it, I reckon I could get 10 members and that's enough for a christmas dinner & drinks.

As you say a lucky newbie could pay PC and anyone with a martingale and a little nous could easily end up in that category. Also "PC" is too restrictive and rigid. Without naming names because I don't want to start a war lol I have read many things from PC payers on this forum that were flat out wrong but proving it would have required a long dialogue and for them to accept it which many won't. There are more ways to extract value from sports/risk markets than betting exchanges and I have spoken to several PC payers over the past two years who were no longer making it pay or weren't making enough to make it viable and moved onto other stuff. You can't go asking people for P&Ls if you're already asking them for help as it is.

I've asked numerous people for help/advice since I joined the forum, Kai/Derek/Dallas to name but a few but I would never ask them for their P&L and there is no need to for one simple reason, as a result of my own experience and knowledge level I know that they know what they are talking about. There is no short cut IMO to know someone else's level of expertise but when you have it yourself then it stands out a mile and even if someone is a PC payer, doesn't mean that they will open up and tell you anything of value does it.

IMO, some of the best people to listen to are the ones that aren't making money because they are showing you potential pitfalls and as a result you can learn a lot of what not to do and move closer to your goal that way.

EDIT: Also PC is a "problem" that IMO a trader/bettor should try very hard to solve. Why would anyone if they could avoid it do all that work only to then hand back a large chunk of their profit if they could avoid it?? Its obvious why it exists and I was one of the first people to defend it because the exchange eco system was at risk but that doesn't alter the fact that its a problem that anybody should attempt to circumvent anyway

[Kai]

You've made a good point. People keep banging on about PC, a badge and membership of a club but it's your lifetime gross that really counts.

Using the tax you pay as a measure is so 2010, take a look at Google, Amazon & Starbucks

I don't know if it's a lack of ambition but I rarely see new people start by planning ahead and getting some tax avoidance in place. Or maybe it's over ambition and thinking they'll be so rich that fees won't be problem..

You give younger people far too much credit Shaun, they'll get to planning soon as they're done scrolling their social media timelines By the time they're done scrolling it's already getting dark outside and they can't do it then because that time is obviously reserved for "Netflix and chill". Yep, there's nothing that young people love more than planning for their future. They couldn't plan a picnic if you gave them a basket and a blanket.

Even I didn't bother to fully read the higher PC charges stuff in the T&C for the first few years, until somebody on here explained it in one simple sentence, genuinely thought I'd have to get a math degree to understand it but it was actually extremely self-explanatory, lmao. In my defense Business English sometimes sounds like gibberish to a filthy foreigner like myself, but it's still a decent if somewhat embarrassing example.

I don't think an exclusive club membership would reap any particular benefits at all, besides real collabs (which are rarer than unicorns) people never want to discuss the finer details of trading anyway and one can indeed get tired of endlessly generalizing everything and oversimplifying it for easier consumption of newbies. A club like that may give a select few that warm & fuzzy feeling inside, but those on the outside would surely feel very much the opposite No, I'm afraid it would just create one big unproductive, for lack of a less vulgar term, circlejerk.

[Trader Pat]

No, I'm afraid it would just create one big unproductive, for lack of a less vulgar term, circlejerk.

Ah so its going to be one of those kinds of meetups?!

Count me out then, my orgy days are behind me!

[Derek27]

I was once having a coffee with a mate at a market stall and the young girl behind the counter asked us: "Why are old people, I mean middle-aged people always talking about young people?"

[Kai]

No, I'm afraid it would just create one big unproductive, for lack of a less vulgar term, circlejerk.

Ah so its going to be one of those kinds of meetups?!

Count me out then, my orgy days are behind me!

Yes, now that you mention it, I also seem to have a dentist appointment at this date, whenever it is Ah well, maybe next time!

[rik]

As you say a lucky newbie could pay PC and anyone with a martingale and a little nous could easily end up in that category.

Know anyone without a consistent edge caught in PC? Even the arber/matched betters never seem to get a long enough run together.

EDIT: Also PC is a "problem" that IMO a trader/bettor should try very hard to solve.

Solved it then? Doubt there is a long term solution other than generating a lot of commission.

[Derek27]

A single winning market that amounts to more than 50% of your lifetime profit is excluded from PC calculations, so a lucky big winner would need more than one big win or would have to be profitable outside their big wins to fall into PC.

[Morbius]

As you say a lucky newbie could pay PC and anyone with a martingale and a little nous could easily end up in that category.

Know anyone without a consistent edge caught in PC? Even the arber/matched betters never seem to get a long enough run together.

EDIT: Also PC is a "problem" that IMO a trader/bettor should try very hard to solve.

Solved it then? Doubt there is a long term solution other than generating a lot of commission.

erm......let me go away and have a think about if I want to give away three years of applied research on a forum and I'll get back to you

Academic anyway Rik as some of the solutions should be obvious to an experienced trader/bettor or anyone who has been on this forum and amassed as many contacts that you no doubt have. The most obvious being don't be a pure trader and get other strings to your bow

[gazuty]

Reading wrong advice as valuable as reading right advice.

Even if everybody were of the same view and only one person in the whole forum had a different view it would be even more important to hear that different view.

[rik]

As you say a lucky newbie could pay PC and anyone with a martingale and a little nous could easily end up in that category.

Know anyone without a consistent edge caught in PC? Even the arber/matched betters never seem to get a long enough run together.

EDIT: Also PC is a "problem" that IMO a trader/bettor should try very hard to solve.

Solved it then? Doubt there is a long term solution other than generating a lot of commission.

erm......let me go away and have a think about if I want to give away three years of applied research on a forum and I'll get back to you

Academic anyway Rik as some of the solutions should be obvious to an experienced trader/bettor or anyone who has been on this forum and amassed as many contacts that you no doubt have. The most obvious being don't be a pure trader and get other strings to your bow

Getting a different account would work in theory if you wanted to go that far, seems betfair are very aware of that. Even Peter was saying he got found out for it.
Forget arbing / laying off somewhere else, not worth the effort if your betting seriously.

[jamesg46]

Know anyone without a consistent edge caught in PC? Even the arber/matched betters never seem to get a long enough run together.



Solved it then? Doubt there is a long term solution other than generating a lot of commission.

erm......let me go away and have a think about if I want to give away three years of applied research on a forum and I'll get back to you

Academic anyway Rik as some of the solutions should be obvious to an experienced trader/bettor or anyone who has been on this forum and amassed as many contacts that you no doubt have. The most obvious being don't be a pure trader and get other strings to your bow

Getting a different account would work in theory if you wanted to go that far, seems betfair are very aware of that. Even Peter was saying he got found out for it.
Forget arbing / laying off somewhere else, not worth the effort if your betting seriously.

The market is efficient, you don't need to bet/arb elsewhere, long term you'll break even but create commission. I didn't think this was a secret, it's been discussed plenty. Takes about a minute to research, not 3 years.

[rik]

paying commission or paying premium charge not much difference, got to beat the market

[jamesg46]

What or if People should be judged on is "skin in the game" my turnover is roughly .5 of a million every month, that is relatively low or very, very low if we were to compare.