Your first trading success!

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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Could be something that newcomers to trading find useful, since we all know how difficult it is to make that first breakthrough when markets appear very efficient. Figured if enough people shared a few bits about where they've made that first breakthrough (which is arguably the most difficult part) it might give newcomers some important clues on where and how to break that illusion of market efficiency. Not to mention it can showcase how markets have changed over time etc.

If you're the romantic type you can think of it as the very first moment you feel in love with Betfair, but it's very easy to participate for anyone that wants to, by just answering the 2 simple questions below.

1. Where did you find your very first trading success on Betfair?

2. What's the best advice you'd give your younger self if you were starting there today?
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Just to get the ball rolling...

1. Had my first success in football with simple LTD (lay the draw) strategies based off prematch stats. Wasn't big on stats but seemed to find something that worked well for a few months while the football season lasted, although not entirely sure if there was a long term edge or no since never went back to using stats.

2. Forget stats altogether and LTD at kickoff or big favorites, instead look for value in laying the draw during the 2nd half when even(ish) teams play. Expand the strategy to laying the team that's losing by 1-2 goals if they start the 2nd half very strongly or make impactful subs. And use Sofascore to support your opinions! But be mindful of confirmation bias.
AlexisMartin
Posts: 60
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:26 pm

My first was with Tennis, having a a nice wimbledon in 2002!

Advice to my self: "on a long enough time line the survival rate of any system drops to zero!" stick to plan and collect data , mine it trade it and leave it when entropy starts
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

1) Had my first success manually trading pre off horses about 10 years ago, also about 10 years ago I left to go “inplay” So i left sports trading alone full time for a while until my return just over a year ago and concentrated on FX. A success was also finishing the free babypips.com course that gave me the basics in FX. Definitely recommend that site.

2)
  • Never go inplay from pre off
  • Don’t trade for the sake of trading
  • Spend time looking for opportunities
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

1) The first successful trade I can remember was 2009 in a tennis match between Nadal and Gael Monfils. I layed Nadal during the match at 1.11 for a liability of €100, removed the liability at some point and let it run as a free bet on Monfils. Monfils won 2-0 in the end and think I made about €750, I remember thinking how easy it was compared to outright punting until of course I gave most of it back over the next few days! :D

2) Don't treat profits as 'free money' that isn't really yours so its fine if you lose it. And on the flip side of that if you lose some of your original bank its ok, don't go chasing in play after a fiver just to blow a €500 bank. (I did that so many times :oops: )

And Keep better records.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

First profitable approach for me I guess was arbing with bookmakers.
First approach on Betfair that profitable was to trade over/under and matchodds based on where the ball was on the pitch and therefore unlikely for a goal to be scored either for one team or both if over/under.
Think back in 2007 time decay of the odds was a lot more linear. You knew if there wasnt a goal for a while price would come in, whereas now it can hold a lot longer or even move out just for a dangerous ball possession and then once the ball is out of play or the situation is under control the odds will be readjusted by the fastest guys in one move. Although not that scalable, it really wasn‘t much of a challenge back then, even just using bookmaker streams as a feed which were much more competitive latency wise compared to now.
Soon after I focused on taking advantage of the lack of cross matching back then as that was much more scalable.
weemac
Posts: 1216
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Wimbledon Ladies Outright market, first week of June 2000 on betfair. One evening someone had got the Williams sisters mixed up (Venus 12/1 and Serena 3/1, should have been vice versa), and the odds were still available next morning. Think I made a tenner or so.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I remember it well because I discovered trading by accident. I had been a punter and the concept of trading wasn't one I'd encountered or envisaged

It was Wimbledon 2004
My best mate's birthday is 21st June, so we went on an all-day bender and that was the opening Monday of Wimbledon.
I came home pissed, looked at the next day matches and fancied Ivan Ljubicic to beat the veteran Wayne Ferreira.
I placed £100 on him, but when I sobered up the following morning I regretted it, so I went back into the market not knowing what I was expecting to see.
It appears others fancied Ljubicic too and he'd moved in price. There was a 7 tick movement for a £7 profit

I was so new to trading, I wasn't even sure if I was allowed to back and lay the same selection :lol: :lol: (that sounds very naive now)
I locked in my £7 and then calculated what I could earn if I spread them - it was only £5

However, Ljubicic lost and I couldn't believe I'd won £5 on a selection that lost!
I was still half expecting Betfair to void it, as some kind of illegal bet :lol:

They didn't. I was hooked......my trading career had begun
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 5:50 pm
I remember it well because I discovered trading by accident. I had been a punter and the concept of trading wasn't one I'd encountered or envisaged

It was Wimbledon 2004
My best mate's birthday is 21st June, so we went on an all-day bender and that was the opening Monday of Wimbledon.
I came home pissed, looked at the next day matches and fancied Ivan Ljubicic to beat the veteran Wayne Ferreira.
I placed £100 on him, but when I sobered up the following morning I regretted it, so I went back into the market not knowing what I was expecting to see.
It appears others fancied Ljubicic too and he'd moved in price. There was a 7 tick movement for a £7 profit

I was so new to trading, I wasn't even sure if I was allowed to back and lay the same selection :lol: :lol: (that sounds very naive now)
I locked in my £7 and then calculated what I could earn if I spread them - it was only £5

However, Ljubicic lost and I couldn't believe I'd won £5 on a selection that lost!
I was still half expecting Betfair to void it, as some kind of illegal bet :lol:

They didn't. I was hooked......my trading career had begun
❤️ that one!
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Realrocknrolla wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 5:51 pm
LeTiss wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 5:50 pm
I remember it well because I discovered trading by accident. I had been a punter and the concept of trading wasn't one I'd encountered or envisaged

It was Wimbledon 2004
My best mate's birthday is 21st June, so we went on an all-day bender and that was the opening Monday of Wimbledon.
I came home pissed, looked at the next day matches and fancied Ivan Ljubicic to beat the veteran Wayne Ferreira.
I placed £100 on him, but when I sobered up the following morning I regretted it, so I went back into the market not knowing what I was expecting to see.
It appears others fancied Ljubicic too and he'd moved in price. There was a 7 tick movement for a £7 profit

I was so new to trading, I wasn't even sure if I was allowed to back and lay the same selection :lol: :lol: (that sounds very naive now)
I locked in my £7 and then calculated what I could earn if I spread them - it was only £5

However, Ljubicic lost and I couldn't believe I'd won £5 on a selection that lost!
I was still half expecting Betfair to void it, as some kind of illegal bet :lol:

They didn't. I was hooked......my trading career had begun
❤️ that one!
Same! Very wholesome story, it did sound like love at first sight :) Despite involving a lot of alcohol and a very bald Croatian tennis player, well done!

My trading love story is rubbish in comparison, saw the concept of trading in a random video and my eyes widened like never before. The End :|
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Hopefully it's not too disheartening for newcomers to read how long people have been around for, hopefully it's the other way around!

Thanks for the replies, keep 'em coming 👍
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

1) -
2) Expect it to be 1000x harder than you think
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

1.

Mine was on the US Open golf in June 2000, sort of. That was more an arb than a bet.

But later.... like LeTiss, I accidentally discovered trading when I changed a position. It had moved and I seemed to have a profit with no risk. I actually wasn't sure what I was looking at, all I was trying to do was get rid of the bet. So I started experimenting and the rest is history as they say.

I was worried when I started, that I may have found a loophole of some sort. So as the trades got bigger I was just waiting for the phone to ring.

2.

Doing simple things very well is often the key to profitability.
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Realrocknrolla wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 12:29 pm
  • Spend time looking for opportunities
Not enough people do that.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 7:43 pm
Realrocknrolla wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 12:29 pm
  • Spend time looking for opportunities
Not enough people do that.
However, you need to know what an "opportunity" looks like...?
I understand the "concept" so I try and work out what I think an "opportunity" is (eg.price >6% above VWAP), then write a bot to find them... then lose money :lol: :lol:
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