Your first trading success!

[Euler]

1. I'd found some success with buying stocks and shares using the old share shop in the high street. It was in a bank called Midland (now HSBC). I then found out about the flutter exchange and back in the day they offered a FTSE100 market index. As I was tracking the FTSE 100 as part of the stock buying process, I liked the idea of predicting the how the index may perform and could take either side of the market. Liquidity was poor though and it wasn't long before horse racing/football markets were used too. So my first trade success was in the FTSE100 index market, then blew it in the other markets....

I spent ages on FTSE up / down markets in the early years.

[tumby]

1. I started building a system for the football pre-off correct score market. It appeared to make a tiny profit but the noise was huge, I was really not sure there was much point continuing. Then for no obvious reason I decided to run my system on a golf major in-play. I made just over £300 and just couldn't believe my luck. Turns out my system needed volume and I was just starting in the wrong market. From then on I started keeping accurate records and designing variations of my system carefully so that I could gather enough data to test whether the variations improved or harmed the system (you need a lot more data than you might think to do this!). I found horse racing the best market to really test my system as there are so many events every day and great volumes.

2. Focus on risk management from the start, don't use the kelly criterion to decide your risk appetite, think about liquidity instead.

[footysystems]

I spent the 1980 and 90s backing horse was so much easier before the internet.
Turned to trading football 2004 thinking it would be easier how wrong was I ?
These days I trade the goals markets inplay using inplay data still a long slog and getting harder the older I am getting cannot think as fast lol

[Kai]

Turns out my system needed volume and I was just starting in the wrong market.

Well done, I feel that's an important part that warranted commenting on

Matching the right strategy to the right market etc goes without saying, possibly matching your mentality to the right approach, but for me most importantly matching your existing skillset to the right market/approach as well, which is something I'm still transitioning through as well (although mostly due to lack of effort on my part). But this work/transition is probably never done anyway, if you keep building up your skillset and adding to it over time then ideally you're going to do some market hopping.

IMHO always a good idea to explore different markets, like you've done there, since things you learn in a new market can deepen your understanding on your previous market and help put the bigger picture together quicker, even if the markets are seemingly unrelated. That being said however, going far too wide is not too sensible either since it obviously comes at the cost of "narrow specialization" and "specialist knowledge" which I'd say is an absolute must in order to penetrate that initial bubble of so-called market efficiency.

So when struggling it's probably worth taking a little step back to objectively see if your approach could be better applied elsewhere and to see if your skills are objectively better suited elsewhere.

And whether you should be focusing on maximizing your strengths or actively working on your biggest weaknesses is probably too big of a topic, but I'd lean towards the strengths part since you do have a chance to create something special that way, instead of just getting your weaknesses up to the average levels, although the weaknesses obviously do have to be at a certain minimum level to not drag the whole thing down and ruin it.

[Derek27]

I spent the 1980 and 90s backing horse was so much easier before the internet.
Turned to trading football 2004 thinking it would be easier how wrong was I ?
These days I trade the goals markets inplay using inplay data still a long slog and getting harder the older I am getting cannot think as fast lol

In the 1980s with just a handful of bookies, big overrounds and 10% tax, looking back I would say it was near enough impossible to win, although at the time I just convinced myself otherwise. Now, with over 50 online bookies competing, very tight overrounds it's never been better for small punters to get value, that is, until they stop taking your bets!

[rik]

I spent the 1980 and 90s backing horse was so much easier before the internet.
Turned to trading football 2004 thinking it would be easier how wrong was I ?
These days I trade the goals markets inplay using inplay data still a long slog and getting harder the older I am getting cannot think as fast lol

In the 1980s with just a handful of bookies, big overrounds and 10% tax, looking back I would say it was near enough impossible to win, although at the time I just convinced myself otherwise. Now, with over 50 online bookies competing, very tight overrounds it's never been better for small punters to get value, that is, until they stop taking your bets!

Overrounds might be tighter now but prices also more accurate with much more statistics/video etc available and can feed all sorts of information into programs to work out a price
Im sure what he meant is that it was easier to find the value prices in the 80s, 90s and I would assume thats true

[Derek27]

I spent the 1980 and 90s backing horse was so much easier before the internet.
Turned to trading football 2004 thinking it would be easier how wrong was I ?
These days I trade the goals markets inplay using inplay data still a long slog and getting harder the older I am getting cannot think as fast lol

In the 1980s with just a handful of bookies, big overrounds and 10% tax, looking back I would say it was near enough impossible to win, although at the time I just convinced myself otherwise. Now, with over 50 online bookies competing, very tight overrounds it's never been better for small punters to get value, that is, until they stop taking your bets!

Overrounds might be tighter now but prices also more accurate with much more statistics/video etc available and can feed all sorts of information into programs to work out a price
Im sure what he meant is that it was easier to find the value prices in the 80s, 90s and I would assume thats true

In the 1980s I wasn't smart enough to spot value and lacked the knowledge of horse racing that I subsequently acquired. But I'm pretty sure there were far less opportunities back then, especially with the 10% tax. You have tight overrounds now but that doesn't stop massive price fluctuations, steamers and drifters so you know there must be plenty of value to be had if you're a bettor.

[Crazyskier]

Mine was finding that if I could get matched at early enough prices (before the big late bookie money), I could lay the entire field to a set liability for a small profit.

Over the years this has refined through necessity as every man and his bot is trying to compete to be first in the queue at poor value prices and you'll get matched with 30 tick gaps, only to find the prices crash in to below what you've laid at! Story of my life! Haha.

In fact I make less now than I used to, even with last year's anticipated move from 2k to 5k transaction limit per hour before charges.There are some very sophisticated excel-driven and bespoke bots that are far more efficient than my 'fill or kill' bots now. Sad really.

CS

[rik]

In fact I make less now than I used to, even with last year's anticipated move from 2k to 5k transaction limit per hour before charges.There are some very sophisticated excel-driven and bespoke bots that are far more efficient than my 'fill or kill' bots now. Sad really.

CS

Less better than nothing at least, everything I done on my first phase on betfair been overtaken and useless by now, I guess why shouldnt get too lazy

[Kai]

In fact I make less now than I used to, even with last year's anticipated move from 2k to 5k transaction limit per hour before charges.There are some very sophisticated excel-driven and bespoke bots that are far more efficient than my 'fill or kill' bots now. Sad really.

CS

Less better than nothing at least, everything I done on my first phase on betfair been overtaken and useless by now, I guess why shouldnt get too lazy

Same here actually, a lot of my first phase stuff more or less useless by now and it's only been like 5 years or so.

[footysystems]

I spent the 1980 and 90s backing horse was so much easier before the internet.
Turned to trading football 2004 thinking it would be easier how wrong was I ?
These days I trade the goals markets inplay using inplay data still a long slog and getting harder the older I am getting cannot think as fast lol

In the 1980s with just a handful of bookies, big overrounds and 10% tax, looking back I would say it was near enough impossible to win, although at the time I just convinced myself otherwise. Now, with over 50 online bookies competing, very tight overrounds it's never been better for small punters to get value, that is, until they stop taking your bets!

In the 1980s I knocked about with a chap called Paul Sweeny he had his own ratings for 2yo and chasers in the winter we cleared up. He was a smart guy on the northern tracks.

[footysystems]

I spent the 1980 and 90s backing horse was so much easier before the internet.
Turned to trading football 2004 thinking it would be easier how wrong was I ?
These days I trade the goals markets inplay using inplay data still a long slog and getting harder the older I am getting cannot think as fast lol

In the 1980s with just a handful of bookies, big overrounds and 10% tax, looking back I would say it was near enough impossible to win, although at the time I just convinced myself otherwise. Now, with over 50 online bookies competing, very tight overrounds it's never been better for small punters to get value, that is, until they stop taking your bets!

In the 1980s I knocked about with a chap called Paul Sweeny he had his own ratings for 2yo and chasers in the winter we cleared up. He was a smart guy on the northern tracks.

Never ever even give the 10% tax a thought. Was easier because you had to put the leg work in reading superform and the weekender were essentially the best tools of the day. I still have my superform books in the loft. These days with the internet everyone knows detail at the click of a mouse so the prices are poor.

[BFDon]

I had some success trading frame betting for snooker back in the analogue TV days with live pics prior to this but my first memorable breakthrough was when I was trying to build a model to rank tennis players. One evening back in 2006 I realised that by clicking the scoreboard it would refresh the scores rather than having to wait for the automated refresh that would happen at set intervals. I'd get my bet ready then constantly click on the scoreboard and if the point went my way submit the bet, hoovering the good odds. I won about £200 with little effort. Markets have come a long way since, if only I had the knowledge and software I do now back then.

[darchas]

Great idea for a thread.

One thing for me was religiously tracking my results. Trading and otherwise.



This was me a couple of years ago, trading football. Logging everything really helped me realise where my problems where, and led me to zero in on the strategies that were adding value and the trades that were not (most often the emotionally driven, over staking ones!). Seeing it all set down in black and white was a real lightbulb moment for me and really gave an insight into how I was approaching trading. From this point I really learned the value of patience, how those small and safe trades build up over time, and how much a rush of blood can set you back. This led to a massive shift in my trading. Also the advice I got on this forum around the same time really combined with a whole shift in approach to just be much more professional in general and to treat the thing properly.

[darchas]

Sorry, to answer the second question. One thing I'd say to myself early doors is to log everything, every punt, every trade and bet. What I also started to do is to write up a rationale for every single trade. It was a pain at times, especially when I'd just decided to let a trade run cos 'course they'll score', once I had to put that down in writing it really helped me cut out that destructive behaviour. So I'd say to do that much earlier in my trading life.