The Fox in the Hen House

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wearthefoxhat
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Focussed on 1 race today.

I used a couple of different variations on the same race to see if there was a common demoninator.

Musselburgh 4.10

Muss4.10A.png
Muss4.10BB.png
Muss 4.10C.png
Seems 11.Danzan & 8.Muntadab appear interesting in a competitive looking Class 2 handicap.

By comparison; 4. On a Session looks poor value
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Crazyskier
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Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:37 pm
Focussed on 1 race today.

I used a couple of different variations on the same race to see if there was a common demoninator.

Musselburgh 4.10


Muss4.10A.png


Muss4.10BB.png


Muss 4.10C.png

Seems 11.Danzan & 8.Muntadab appear interesting in a competitive looking Class 2 handicap.

By comparison; 4. On a Session looks poor value
Was going to lay session, but he's out to 6s. Have dutch-backed Danzan and Muntadab to place, so either one in top 4 is a net win. Thanks!

CS
tootall
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How do you dutch place market?
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Crazyskier
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tootall wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:36 pm
How do you dutch place market?
Just make sure both bets are above odds of 2 and adjust the stakes accordingly - more on the lower priced horse.

As it turns out both the horses backed started very well, but were outpaced in the latter parts of the race. Oh well...

CS
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wearthefoxhat
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Crazyskier wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:14 pm
tootall wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:36 pm
How do you dutch place market?
Just make sure both bets are above odds of 2 and adjust the stakes accordingly - more on the lower priced horse.

As it turns out both the horses backed started very well, but were outpaced in the latter parts of the race. Oh well...

CS
Yeah, rough race in the end, although didn't impact those two.
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Thought I'd post up 2 racetypes. A couple of 2yo Novice Stakes races and a Class 2 Handicap, all at Leicester.

With the 2yo races, there is less info around, it's just a question of what is personally considered important.

One thing that's noticeable is that the value can materialise quite late on as the market shifts around.

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Leicester 1.00

An open type of race where there are 4 close together as the favourite is maybe overpriced, although has chances.

The outlier is: 5.Mega Marvel

Leic 1.00.png

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Leicester 1.30

Top rated 5. Kennet looks interesting.

The outlier is: 1. Bond Boy

Leic 1.30.png

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Leicester 3.50

Top Rated: 1. Tomfre looks interesting, with a couple of others in support.

There are a couple of outliers; 3. Persuasion is one, but there are 2 others as well

Could be totally wrong on this one, gotta trust the process!

Leic 3.50.png

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wearthefoxhat
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Good day overall today.

Certainly like the Novice type races, even Maiden types too. Handicaps continue to be hit and miss.
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wearthefoxhat
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The Novice Stakes race that ticks the box today is;


Bath 3.40

1.Geelong looks fair value overall. 3.Al Aabir is ok if 11/4 can be found. (then the exchanges will offer more)

The Outlier seems to be 6.Levitate.

Bath 3.40.png
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On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM

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wearthefoxhat
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:38 am
The Novice Stakes race that ticks the box today is;


Bath 3.40

1.Geelong looks fair value overall. 3.Al Aabir is ok if 11/4 can be found. (then the exchanges will offer more)

The Outlier seems to be 6.Levitate.


Bath 3.40.png

---------------

On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM

---------------

A non-runner and odds update puts an interesting spin on the complexion of the race.


Bath 3.40

Bath3.40B.png

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PapaShango
Posts: 42
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:38 am





---------------

On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM

---------------

There was an ITV documentary from about 20/25 years ago called “winners” about professional gamblers.

It featured some horse racing and some poker pros. The late ‘devil fish’ was one of the poker pros featured, and Steve Lewis Hamilton was the horse racing pro. They followed him round for the day.

It was a really good documentary. I used to have it on VHS but I lost the tape, and don’t even have a tape player to play it on now anyway. I can’t find it anywhere on YouTube , though would like to see it again.

It was only about 20 mins or so long, though was good to see gambling being shown in a positive light. All we get nowadays is bombarded with anti gambling stories and documentaries. It would be nice to remind people that if you work hard at it, treat it with respect, then you can actually win.
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