The Fox in the Hen House

[wearthefoxhat]

Having previously worked on some value ratings stuff, I feel I've managed to simplify the data input and more importantly got the shape of the race right to produce a more realistic picture for finding the best selection(s) at the best value.

The resources I use are freely available, alongside the basic use of excel. I'll post up the odd race, sometimes after the event, just to explain my thoughts.

Uttoxeter 2.47

Uttox 2.47.png

The odds are taken from the current live market on oddchecker, so Betfair will offer further value.

Orchard Grove offers good value.

OrchardGrove.png

Cryogenics is the curveball.

Cryogenics.png

[henbet22]

cosy win in the end

[henbet22]

4.9 for a 2.64 shot is good going

[The Silk Run]

Nice call. Perhaps the OP on the Martingale topic should reach out to you
Have a nice day Sir ...

[wearthefoxhat]

Looked at a Class 3 Hcap today.

Lingfield 3.00

Ling 3.00.png

Top 3 rated are value propositions as the "favourite" may looked to be hyped/over backed, due to connections. Stoute/R.Moore


My Frankel

MyFrankel.png

[ilovepizza82]

Hi Mr.Fox,

Did you lay "Bascilicata" ?

[napshnap]

Hi Mr.Fox,

Did you lay "Bascilicata" ?

Why lay? Back it and lay Frankel.

[ilovepizza82]

Hi Mr.Fox,

Did you lay "Bascilicata" ?

Why lay? Back it and lay Frankel.

Ok. I'd thought the "odds" column represented his odds ("the real odds" as some people call them) and the green column...ok i get it now. THanks !

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi Mr.Fox,

Did you lay "Bascilicata" ?

Why lay? Back it and lay Frankel.

Ok. I'd thought the "odds" column represented his odds ("the real odds" as some people call them) and the green column...ok i get it now. THanks !

Yep, I didn't explain very well.

The green figures are the raw odds based on certain criteria all mixed in. The odds in white are the live odds using odds-checker.

When comparing the 2, if the white odds are greater than the green odds, then there should be value. (ideally in the top 3 or 4)

I highlighted the early favourite as poor value, but not the actual winner of the race.

At the off, the new favourite @ 9/4 lost its' value as it was backed late on.

[wearthefoxhat]

Looked at 12 races, this one stands out today. Betfair odds should be bigger.

Leicester 2.47

Leic 2.47.png

Arqoob 8.00 & Croeso Cymraeg 15.00 look value at those prices.


Arqoob

Arqoob.png

Croeso Cymraeg

Croeso.png

The outlier is; (L2B)

Liberation Point @ 5.50


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I still like the way the tissue odds calculated compare well with the actual market. This in turn gives me more confidence to find potential good/poor value types in the race. The class of race could be a factor, the higher the better as the lower class ones can be more inconsistent.

I don't factor in the live market into the calculation so not to influence the data.

if anyone wants me to evaluate a particular race, give me a shout. Any race can be evaluated, even a novice/maiden or Irish racing. (before the race starts)


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[wearthefoxhat]

Here's a race with an abvious looking favourite. I like the way the calculated odds mirror image the live market odds without taking into account the live market.

Kempton 6.30

Kemp 6.30.png

As there's no value backing or laying the favourite it lends itself to find likely value elsewhere, maybe for the place market or the extra place market or E/W.

9. Evasive Power

EP.png

The outlier is 3. Sanaadh, despite the trainer being in good form and a good jockey booking.

[wearthefoxhat]

As a test, I input the key data into the Class 5 Novice Stakes (Non Hcap) Nott 1.55

Nott 1.55.png

I added a Value Indicator column. >1.00 indicates value (higher the better)

The line seperates the average odds (calculated), below the line, indicates regressive/inflated odds.

[wearthefoxhat]

Here's a race with an abvious looking favourite. I like the way the calculated odds mirror image the live market odds without taking into account the live market.

Kempton 6.30


Kemp 6.30.png


As there's no value backing or laying the favourite it lends itself to find likely value elsewhere, maybe for the place market or the extra place market or E/W.

9. Evasive Power


EP.png


The outlier is 3. Sanaadh, despite the trainer being in good form and a good jockey booking.

So, with the addition of the Value Index, this race looks like this.

Kempton6.30.png

[ilovepizza82]

You say yo ure using oddschecker ?
Do you use some sort of real time webscraper or is it just some sort of excel trick ?

[wearthefoxhat]

You say yo ure using oddschecker ?
Do you use some sort of real time webscraper or is it just some sort of excel trick ?

Only use Oddschecker (live market) for the Odds in the white column to compare with my calculated odds in green.

Excel does the overall calculations when I input the key data from the other websites. No webscraping just manual input.

It's evolved over time when i was trying this stuff last year.