The Fox in the Hen House

A place to discuss anything.
Post Reply
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Here's a race with an abvious looking favourite. I like the way the calculated odds mirror image the live market odds without taking into account the live market.

Kempton 6.30

Kemp 6.30.png

As there's no value backing or laying the favourite it lends itself to find likely value elsewhere, maybe for the place market or the extra place market or E/W.

9. Evasive Power

EP.png

The outlier is 3. Sanaadh, despite the trainer being in good form and a good jockey booking.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

As a test, I input the key data into the Class 5 Novice Stakes (Non Hcap) Nott 1.55


Nott 1.55.png


I added a Value Indicator column. >1.00 indicates value (higher the better)

The line seperates the average odds (calculated), below the line, indicates regressive/inflated odds.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:25 am
Here's a race with an abvious looking favourite. I like the way the calculated odds mirror image the live market odds without taking into account the live market.

Kempton 6.30


Kemp 6.30.png


As there's no value backing or laying the favourite it lends itself to find likely value elsewhere, maybe for the place market or the extra place market or E/W.

9. Evasive Power


EP.png


The outlier is 3. Sanaadh, despite the trainer being in good form and a good jockey booking.

So, with the addition of the Value Index, this race looks like this.

Kempton6.30.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
ilovepizza82
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm
Location: Sewers
Contact:

You say yo ure using oddschecker ?
Do you use some sort of real time webscraper or is it just some sort of excel trick ?
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

ilovepizza82 wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:54 pm
You say yo ure using oddschecker ?
Do you use some sort of real time webscraper or is it just some sort of excel trick ?
Only use Oddschecker (live market) for the Odds in the white column to compare with my calculated odds in green.

Excel does the overall calculations when I input the key data from the other websites. No webscraping just manual input.

It's evolved over time when i was trying this stuff last year.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Looked at several races today. Picked out a couple of interest.

Worcester 2.13

Tried to look at a race with a smaller field, Class 3, to see how it fares. In this race the Top 2 looked to have some value in them.

Worc2.13.png
---------------------

Worcester 4.33

Class 4 Novice Hurdle. The main market indicates 2 shorter ones, but the value is in Hermes Boy.

Worc 4.33.png

--------------------


Chelmsford 8.30

Top rated Anisoptera look interesting as the market favourite looks overbet. Couple of others in the race could be included too.


Chelm8.30.png

--------------------
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Mixed day yesterday.

Gubbed by the 1000-1 in running Wigglesworth, great result on the 16/1 Hermes Boy (was value at 10/1), turned over by Sir Mark Prescott again in another.

Quite encouraged looking at other results too with my previous hypothesis holding up. ie: Better class handicaps more consistent.

Barry Dennis confirmed in a recent YT video the bookies hate Novice races. This held true 30 years+ ago too, so that could be worth exploring more.

I've also had some success with Greyhounds using value data assessments. I suspect the higher grade races and Open races will perform best.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

So I took a look a couple of Novice type races.

8th Oct .2021

Chepstow 1.00

6. Mexican Boy looks fair value @25/1 along with 2.Earth Business @8/1 against the short 2/9 favourite.

Chep 1.00.png

--------------------------

York 2.40

2.Selby's Pride looks okay at 8/1, prefer a little bigger. The one I kinda like is 11. Vadamiah @ 100/1 just outside the average odds line.


Vadamiah

Vadamiah.png

York 2.40.png

-----------------------
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:59 am
So I took a look a couple of Novice type races.

8th Oct .2021

Chepstow 1.00

6. Mexican Boy looks fair value @25/1 along with 2.Earth Business @8/1 against the short 2/9 favourite.


Chep 1.00.png


--------------------------

York 2.40

2.Selby's Pride looks okay at 8/1, prefer a little bigger. The one I kinda like is 11. Vadamiah @ 100/1 just outside the average odds line.


Vadamiah


Vadamiah.png



York 2.40.png


-----------------------
Thanks for this thread.
I've lost my mojo with analysis and this has tweaked my interest.
Whether that turns into useful crunching of my historical data remains to be seen.
But I hope it turns out well for you and thankyou for being so open. :-)
andy28
Posts: 344
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

Interested to know if the odds are all derived from just data or do you watch video's of the previous races as well?
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

greenmark wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:52 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:59 am
So I took a look a couple of Novice type races.

8th Oct .2021

Chepstow 1.00

6. Mexican Boy looks fair value @25/1 along with 2.Earth Business @8/1 against the short 2/9 favourite.


Chep 1.00.png


--------------------------

York 2.40

2.Selby's Pride looks okay at 8/1, prefer a little bigger. The one I kinda like is 11. Vadamiah @ 100/1 just outside the average odds line.


Vadamiah


Vadamiah.png



York 2.40.png


-----------------------
Thanks for this thread.
I've lost my mojo with analysis and this has tweaked my interest.
Whether that turns into useful crunching of my historical data remains to be seen.
But I hope it turns out well for you and thankyou for being so open. :-)
Thanks.

I've always enjoyed the process of data input and finding a combination of key data that "paints a picture" in a recognisable form. I also enjoy using excel at a basic level too.

As we all know, horse racing has so many variables. some misleading, some underestimated. Just a question of focussing on what's useful.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

andy28 wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:41 pm
Interested to know if the odds are all derived from just data or do you watch video's of the previous races as well?
The odds are derived from certain attributes the horse/greyhound has achieved and how it compares with other runners in the race.

I don't watch videos of the previous race to produce the odds line (I know I should)

My original thoughts were, how did the oddsmakers produce a tissue price on a race before the internet/exchanges?

My view is that nowadays the bookmakers have gotten lazy and rely on others to form the market before jumping in. With this in mind, there must be an edge to be found if the right criteria/attributes are used to form the basis of a book %. The edge is, of course value based, but to be wary of the "rubbish in rubbish out" principle of data input.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Something to take from yesterdays data (8Oct).

York1.00Final.png
The E/W thieves seemed to lump on Earth Business (4th) making more value for Mexican Boy (5th). Maybe Plimsoll Line (3rd 20/1) offered late value too.


-----------------

York 2.40Final.png
This race ended up nearly perfectly. The winner offered late value, the second @9/1 even more so, especially on the exchanges. Gutted the 5th place @125/1 didn't get home for 4th as I was on @17.58 in the extra place market!


----------------
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Saturday has a lot of quality type races, not many bread and butter Novice-NonHcaps.

A couple of races that might work out.


Chepstow 1.50

Top 3 hold some value overall, so maybe some sort of dutch.

Chep1.50.png
------------------------------


Newmarket 2.55


3 runners with a Value Index over 1.50 to take on the favourite looks worthwhile.

Newm 2.55.png

---------------------------
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

Hi Fox,

Glad to see you're still plugging away! I love this kind of value finding and refining a strategy the way you do. Your thought process seems to mirror my own only that I simply no longer have the time now I'm back working for 'the man'.

Keep up the good work.

CS
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”