Where am I going wrong?? Newby

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waynejulian
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:11 pm

Ive been trading on and off now for about 3 months and im enjoying it loads, and im up on Betfair for the year to date but my deposits are slowly catching up now with my withdrawals.

At first I was trading football, generally late lay the draw and over 0.5 goals after about the 70 mins mark, and showed some massive profits with small stakes. Ive been using Soccerscanners and im very much hooked on stats, my general trading / betting has improved immensely when using these programmes.
I cashed roughly £500 out of my account over a two month period but my luck seemed to run out and I went on a downswing, so I thought i'd change my strategy.

Ive since started on In-play Racing small stakes, im laying horses high prices for little return.

I seem to win a lot of races but when I make a mistake its a big mistake, and it costs me generally most of my bankroll, Im trading most races inplay when im off work on my days off i win the majority of the time but there is always that race when I dont concentrate and lose most of my hard work that ive done for 2 days previous and its frustrating because it makes me tilt loads. Ive got a tendancy to go and chase my losses, which im trying to cut out, but im struggling.... Is there any hope for me????
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive been trading on and off now for about 3 months and im enjoying it loads, and im up on Betfair for the year to date but my deposits are slowly catching up now with my withdrawals.

At first I was trading football, generally late lay the draw and over 0.5 goals after about the 70 mins mark, and showed some massive profits with small stakes. Ive been using Soccerscanners and im very much hooked on stats, my general trading / betting has improved immensely when using these programmes.
I cashed roughly £500 out of my account over a two month period but my luck seemed to run out and I went on a downswing, so I thought i'd change my strategy.

Ive since started on In-play Racing small stakes, im laying horses high prices for little return.

I seem to win a lot of races but when I make a mistake its a big mistake, and it costs me generally most of my bankroll, Im trading most races inplay when im off work on my days off i win the majority of the time but there is always that race when I dont concentrate and lose most of my hard work that ive done for 2 days previous and its frustrating because it makes me tilt loads. Ive got a tendancy to go and chase my losses, which im trying to cut out, but im struggling.... Is there any hope for me????
I'm actually going through a bad patch with two losing weeks on the trot, but I'm confident it's just random variation coupled with the fact that there hasn't been much midweek football. You need to look at whether you've been doing anything differently. Complacency is a common problem when starting out trading; after a few months of success it's easy to get lax or increase stakes disproportionately.

As for laying horses in-play at high prices, the advice is simple: don't do it. It's futile, you make pennies and lose a fortune when it goes wrong. Same applies to chasing losses. It's easy to spend a day working hard and making money only to blow it on a lapse of concentration. It must be nipped in the bud early. Rock-solid discipline is something that really helps with trading and you should strive to achieve it before your stakes start to increase.
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive been trading on and off now for about 3 months and im enjoying it loads, and im up on Betfair for the year to date but my deposits are slowly catching up now with my withdrawals.

At first I was trading football, generally late lay the draw and over 0.5 goals after about the 70 mins mark, and showed some massive profits with small stakes. Ive been using Soccerscanners and im very much hooked on stats, my general trading / betting has improved immensely when using these programmes.
I cashed roughly £500 out of my account over a two month period but my luck seemed to run out and I went on a downswing, so I thought i'd change my strategy.

Ive since started on In-play Racing small stakes, im laying horses high prices for little return.

I seem to win a lot of races but when I make a mistake its a big mistake, and it costs me generally most of my bankroll, Im trading most races inplay when im off work on my days off i win the majority of the time but there is always that race when I dont concentrate and lose most of my hard work that ive done for 2 days previous and its frustrating because it makes me tilt loads. Ive got a tendancy to go and chase my losses, which im trying to cut out, but im struggling.... Is there any hope for me????
It's a lot easier to end up going on tilt when you're doing a high risk, low reward strategy.
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waynejulian
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:11 pm

So would you suggest I keep to just football and keep going the way I've been going??
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:43 pm
So would you suggest I keep to just football and keep going the way I've been going??
It's a lot of work to learn how to do anything properly, but if you are going to trade horses, I'd do something that gives you a better chance of success. Trades you can't get out of without a massive loss aren't my cup of tea (unless it's part of the plan and the plan is working).
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
there is always that race when I dont concentrate and lose most of my hard work that ive done for 2 days
What do you mean not concentrate? Your watching the race and try to identify runners that you think have no or almost no chance of winning the race anymore. So you think your a bit bored and pick runners that you wouldnt have picked otherwise? So maybe just change that, or maybe its just something you tell yourself "obviously i wasnt focused when i layed that" but in reality did nothing different than on the winners.
Generally laying high odds will always be high variance dont mean it cant be value. Probably easier calling losers than winners as most of the fast guys focus on the winners.
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

I recommend the "guidance" - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873

And can make a few observations given your comments (I prefer the socratic method).
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
At first I was trading football, generally late lay the draw and over 0.5 goals after about the 70 mins mark, and showed some massive profits with small stakes. Ive been using Soccerscanners and im very much hooked on stats, my general trading / betting has improved immensely when using these programmes.
What was your idea with this strategy, why did you pursue it, what records did you keep and what did you observe?
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
I cashed roughly £500 out of my account over a two month period but my luck seemed to run out and I went on a downswing, so I thought i'd change my strategy.
Do you put your sucess and subsequent reversion down to luck? pure random chance? Do you have any other thoughts on the matter?

Did the reversion fit what might otherwise be expected? Did you look at the expected number of losses a day and the expected number of wins a day for entry points? Did you expereience any outsized variance against the expectation? Do you have any theories on the outsized variance?
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
so I thought i'd change my strategy.
Why change strategy? Do you consider the strategy had a negative edge, was neutral or had a positive edge. What was your expected return minus commission? Is there anything you could tweak in the strategy? Was it automated? Was it manual (and hence subject to emotions at your entry point?) If manual, were you rigorous and consistent or did you do it by "feel"?

Have you written all of this down in your Betfair journal?
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive since started on In-play Racing small stakes, im laying horses high prices for little return.
Ahhhh ..... the steam roller (read all about it in the guidance).
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive got a tendancy to go and chase my losses, which im trying to cut out, but im struggling.... Is there any hope for me????
There is hope if you can read the guidance - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873

Begin your journal, record all your strategies, what you are hoping to achieve. Record what you did and how you did it. Record why you think the strategy will be sucessful and continue journaling. When you discover strategies that are not sucessful think about what you could change to make them sucessful, would the diametrically opposed strartegy be sucessful?

If you cannot make the most basic effort to write down your strategies and record your observations, tweak and repeat, then chances of sucess are much smaller.

Oh, and here is my random act of kindness - get going on your journal - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e_g ... sp=sharing
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waynejulian
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:11 pm

rik wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:15 pm
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
there is always that race when I dont concentrate and lose most of my hard work that ive done for 2 days
What do you mean not concentrate? Your watching the race and try to identify runners that you think have no or almost no chance of winning the race anymore. So you think your a bit bored and pick runners that you wouldnt have picked otherwise? So maybe just change that, or maybe its just something you tell yourself "obviously i wasnt focused when i layed that" but in reality did nothing different than on the winners.
Generally laying high odds will always be high variance dont mean it cant be value. Probably easier calling losers than winners as most of the fast guys focus on the winners.
I put my hands up ive been trading races blindly in the past, using the race meters to lay bets half way through the race watching the prices inplay and hoping I win.. I suppose you are going to say im gambling now to a degree, and yes I would agree it is.

Ive now started to watch the race on betfair, but i had a big loss at the beginning of the week when Newcastle was on. A outsider came in, I hate exiting out of a trade that im beat in and took the loss i was fuming. 2 days of watching races gone down the drain yet again!! frustrating...
User avatar
waynejulian
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:11 pm

gazuty wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:30 am
I recommend the "guidance" - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873

And can make a few observations given your comments (I prefer the socratic method).
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
At first I was trading football, generally late lay the draw and over 0.5 goals after about the 70 mins mark, and showed some massive profits with small stakes. Ive been using Soccerscanners and im very much hooked on stats, my general trading / betting has improved immensely when using these programmes.
What was your idea with this strategy, why did you pursue it, what records did you keep and what did you observe?

Ive kept no records, just showed a profit from my trades.
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
I cashed roughly £500 out of my account over a two month period but my luck seemed to run out and I went on a downswing, so I thought i'd change my strategy.
Do you put your sucess and subsequent reversion down to luck? pure random chance? Do you have any other thoughts on the matter?

Did the reversion fit what might otherwise be expected? Did you look at the expected number of losses a day and the expected number of wins a day for entry points? Did you expereience any outsized variance against the expectation? Do you have any theories on the outsized variance?

I put my trades down to using stats software and of course a bit of luck.
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
so I thought i'd change my strategy.
Why change strategy? Do you consider the strategy had a negative edge, was neutral or had a positive edge. What was your expected return minus commission? Is there anything you could tweak in the strategy? Was it automated? Was it manual (and hence subject to emotions at your entry point?) If manual, were you rigorous and consistent or did you do it by "feel"?

Have you written all of this down in your Betfair journal?

Thankyou for the the journal. I will use this, I need to see where im going wrong with my trades
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive since started on In-play Racing small stakes, im laying horses high prices for little return.
Ahhhh ..... the steam roller (read all about it in the guidance).
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive got a tendancy to go and chase my losses, which im trying to cut out, but im struggling.... Is there any hope for me????
There is hope if you can read the guidance - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873

Begin your journal, record all your strategies, what you are hoping to achieve. Record what you did and how you did it. Record why you think the strategy will be sucessful and continue journaling. When you discover strategies that are not sucessful think about what you could change to make them sucessful, would the diametrically opposed strartegy be sucessful?

If you cannot make the most basic effort to write down your strategies and record your observations, tweak and repeat, then chances of sucess are much smaller.

Oh, and here is my random act of kindness - get going on your journal - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e_g ... sp=sharing
Thankyou for your kind advice.
User avatar
waynejulian
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:11 pm

Tetras wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:05 pm
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:43 pm
So would you suggest I keep to just football and keep going the way I've been going??
It's a lot of work to learn how to do anything properly, but if you are going to trade horses, I'd do something that gives you a better chance of success. Trades you can't get out of without a massive loss aren't my cup of tea (unless it's part of the plan and the plan is working).
Maybe Horse trading for me is a step too far, especially using the small bankroll I use.
User avatar
waynejulian
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:11 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:17 pm
waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive been trading on and off now for about 3 months and im enjoying it loads, and im up on Betfair for the year to date but my deposits are slowly catching up now with my withdrawals.

At first I was trading football, generally late lay the draw and over 0.5 goals after about the 70 mins mark, and showed some massive profits with small stakes. Ive been using Soccerscanners and im very much hooked on stats, my general trading / betting has improved immensely when using these programmes.
I cashed roughly £500 out of my account over a two month period but my luck seemed to run out and I went on a downswing, so I thought i'd change my strategy.

Ive since started on In-play Racing small stakes, im laying horses high prices for little return.

I seem to win a lot of races but when I make a mistake its a big mistake, and it costs me generally most of my bankroll, Im trading most races inplay when im off work on my days off i win the majority of the time but there is always that race when I dont concentrate and lose most of my hard work that ive done for 2 days previous and its frustrating because it makes me tilt loads. Ive got a tendancy to go and chase my losses, which im trying to cut out, but im struggling.... Is there any hope for me????
I'm actually going through a bad patch with two losing weeks on the trot, but I'm confident it's just random variation coupled with the fact that there hasn't been much midweek football. You need to look at whether you've been doing anything differently. Complacency is a common problem when starting out trading; after a few months of success it's easy to get lax or increase stakes disproportionately.

As for laying horses in-play at high prices, the advice is simple: don't do it. It's futile, you make pennies and lose a fortune when it goes wrong. Same applies to chasing losses. It's easy to spend a day working hard and making money only to blow it on a lapse of concentration. It must be nipped in the bud early. Rock-solid discipline is something that really helps with trading and you should strive to achieve it before your stakes start to increase.
Thankyou, your correct... Top post.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Are you normally a disciplined, organised, highly focused, risk adverse person and just have trouble trading, or are you expecting to be someone like that when you're at your screen but otherwise aren't ?

The first is something people might be able to help with but if it's the second then nobody here is going to fix you a few comments.
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Kai
Posts: 6095
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

waynejulian wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Ive been trading on and off now for about 3 months and im enjoying it loads, and im up on Betfair for the year to date but my deposits are slowly catching up now with my withdrawals.
Honestly 3 months on and off is not much, can't just dabble your way to consistent profit. Need some perspective, like we all needed at the start. I needed 14 months of balls deep effort to get good consistency and eliminate losing days on the 3 major sports. And I consider myself a quick learner. If you do the math, maybe uncompressed those 14 months are probably several years of casual on and off approach.

But generally better to back at higher odds and lay at lower odds than other way around, for starters would stop laying high
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alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:17 pm

As for laying horses in-play at high prices, the advice is simple: don't do it.
The Prince Andrew trading strategy never lays above 15s
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

alexmr2 wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:19 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:17 pm

As for laying horses in-play at high prices, the advice is simple: don't do it.
The Prince Andrew trading strategy never lays above 15s
Good one Alex. :lol:
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