Starting to think there is no money in automation

[gazuty]

Imo people fail at automation exactly because they see it as an extention of manual trading rather than using it for things manual traders could only dream of.

+1

"Some men see things as they are, and say why. I dream of things that never were, and say why not."

[Derek27]

My year of automation thus far - this help? Modest but steady profits build up gradually into something that is enough for me.


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That must be fake. It's not possible to make money with automation and it's almost a straight line.

[jamesedwards]

My year of automation thus far - this help? Modest but steady profits build up gradually into something that is enough for me.


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That must be fake. It's not possible to make money with automation and it's almost a straight line.

[gazuty]

That must be fake. It's not possible to make money with automation and it's almost a straight line.

Ssshhhhhhhh. We need people to think it’s all possible. #fakepnl #straightlines

[mtrehearn]

Automation is where the money is at. Take a standard strategy, refine it, improve its execution and away you go.

Where people go wrong is they are looking for just some generic automation that prints money endlessly on every market they apply it to. That's probably the hardest thing to do.

Creating good automation and applying to the right market will yield good results. I have something running virtually 24x7 now, but they all started as much simpler strategies a long time ago and have been refined and evolved from there.

Anything worth doing, is going to take time and effort.

Thank you this is gold advice.

I have a lay bot that works well but will then fall down on something once and never again or not for a very long time.

For example I've had the bot running today and all good and well up till the 17:14 Newcastle where it layed Leopards Rock at 13 only for it to come in after all. Nothing stands out for the reason as to why that market failed when all others have worked fine and at the minute I don't have all of the knowledge to understand why.

Just can't get my head around that bit of it all.

[mtrehearn]

I think the key to success is data. I don't mean data mining historic data, I mean collect data on your strategy, as much as you can think of. Record everything. Then build up a database of results and all the associated data. Then you need to start analysing your performance against the data you have collected. I am sure you already have a feel for when you do well and when you fail, does the data back this up? Can you alter your approach as a result so you tip things slightly in your favour. Thats all you need to be long term succesful. The key is to analyse and keep analysing, never stop.

Thank you for the advice.

I try to manage as much data as I can. The trouble for me is trying to understand why it works numerous times for 1 type of market but then on the 100th time it fails (which as we all know for a lay bot is not a good idea).

To me at the minute it's hard to distinguish why that 100th market fails. I look at number of selections vs other races, the market type, course etc and i just can't seem to get there as to why.

[mtrehearn]

Bet Angel has been great but I'm really starting to think that there is no money in automation.

Your mindset is wrong - if you think you cannot do it - you can't.

Read the guidance - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873

I've been designing bots for months and tried everything I could think of.

You haven't even scratched the surface. How did i beat you - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4Xvp1sa6xg

Free your mind neo.

I need motivation.

My year of automation thus far - this help? Modest but steady profits build up gradually into something that is enough for me.


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Thank you. I was having a "bad day at the office" and was on a downer. You are right mindset is a big big part of this and I know mentally I can do this and I will get there but I just got a couple of hurdles to get over (no pun intended).

That is definitely motivation thank you. Congrats on the automation - looks like it's doing really well for you. I know you wont give all your secrets but do you mind if I ask what sort of bot it is, what markets you use it on etc?

Thanks.

[mtrehearn]

Bet Angel has been great but I'm really starting to think that there is no money in automation.

I've been designing bots for months and tried everything I could think of.

My last bot was a lay bot going really well for 2 weeks with a great strike rate and return and now I've had 2 losses in a day wiping out any profits (fortunately I was in practice mode). I know this is the trouble with lay betting but I find it a lot easier than finding a bot that does a reliable back bet (unless I'm missing something major) that isn't along the realms of dobbing or backing the market.

Is anyone actually making money using bots? Is it long term profits? Do you prefer to lay / back / scalp / swing pre race or in play?

I need motivation.

Thanks in advance.

Yeah, thanks Trader Pat for the reference! If you can bare to read 234 pages..! you'll find I nearly threw the towel in several times, had to dig deep... but lots of kind people offered help and suggestions that you can read there...

Thanks Goat.

Looks like you were where I am now.

Glad to hear you came out the otherside of it. Hope its going well still for you. Just got to pin down why my point has a kink every now and then and hopefully I'll be there with you (fingers crossed)

[Tuco]

Automation is where the money is at. Take a standard strategy, refine it, improve its execution and away you go.

Where people go wrong is they are looking for just some generic automation that prints money endlessly on every market they apply it to. That's probably the hardest thing to do.

Creating good automation and applying to the right market will yield good results. I have something running virtually 24x7 now, but they all started as much simpler strategies a long time ago and have been refined and evolved from there.

Anything worth doing, is going to take time and effort.

I make the majority of my money in-play rather than pre-off by being quick and ready to capitalise on real-time situations and opportunities as they present themselves - all manual trading taking lots of time, effort and persistence.

Peter - I'd be very interested to know whether your automation is primarily focused on in-play markets or pre-off markets, or is it an even mixture of the two?

[gazuty]

Thank you. I was having a "bad day at the office" and was on a downer. You are right mindset is a big big part of this and I know mentally I can do this and I will get there but I just got a couple of hurdles to get over (no pun intended).

That is definitely motivation thank you. Congrats on the automation - looks like it's doing really well for you. I know you wont give all your secrets but do you mind if I ask what sort of bot it is, what markets you use it on etc?

Thanks.

No problem, we are all human and all have bad days.

I target horse and dog markets in Australia and the UK.

[Euler]

Peter - I'd be very interested to know whether your automation is primarily focused on in-play markets or pre-off markets, or is it an even mixture of the two?

I still trade manually and automatically on pre-off racing.

I was purely manual at the start but started automating bits of it before just crossing that line to fully automate it. But, for example at Cheltenham, I trade manually to maximise an opportunities I see but still have automated stuff running as well. So a mixture most days, but quieter days I'm more likely to automate now.

On quiet days I have automation running, but have alerts that ping me if it finds something it thinks I should look at.

I prefer to watch most in-play sport live. But the data you can now get on Tennis and Racing allows you to quantify that well so fully automating it is easier now. The data on football isn't granular enough to fully automate certain strategies, but there are lost of generic strategies that can take advantage of these metrics.

Most trading strategies have some core fundamental characteristic to them. So as long as you stay true to that manual or automated. You should be ok in the long term.

[Tuco]

Thank you for that Peter - very insightful

[Anbell]

For example I've had the bot running today and all good and well up till the 17:14 Newcastle where it layed Leopards Rock at 13 only for it to come in after all. Nothing stands out for the reason as to why that market failed when all others have worked fine and at the minute I don't have all of the knowledge to understand why.

Just can't get my head around that bit of it all.

If a horse is 13.0, there's approximately 8% chance that it will win.

[Derek27]

I know you wont give all your secrets but do you mind if I ask what sort of bot it is, what markets you use it on etc?

I doubt anyone would be successful long-term with a single bot. Most botters will have several that they constantly modify and refine, not just to improve it but to adjust to changing markets and keep it profitable. Being able to adapt and break new ground is key. Even the old bank job turned out not to be a job for life, as it was once branded.

[Tuco]

If a horse is 13.0, there's approximately 8% chance that it will win.

...or to put it another way, if the same race with the same horses were run thirteen times, the market thinks that horse will win one of those thirteen races - yesterday was that one-in-thirteen win. That's how it works - risk and reward!

Unlucky on this occasion mtrehearn.