boris and rishi partygate fines
-
Archery1969
- Posts: 3217
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
- Location: Newport
The market thinks BJ is safe.
Means they will get 20% more votes than Torys
But thats to be expected as an ex red wall seat and the Tory MP was forced to resign after being convicted of a sex offence
Tiverton and Honiton is the more interesting one, thats been a true blue toey seat which they held in 2019 with a 20k+ majority
If that goes to Lib Dems every Tory MP will be in fear of losing there seats next election
If they held off sending in the letters till after that and they lost the seat it would be an almost guarantee he'd lose a VONC
-
jamesedwards
- Posts: 2309
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
If he wins the VoNC it will take 12 months to get rid of him. The party will be in the gutter by then.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:21 pmHe goes next year so the next leader has 18 months to prepare for election.
-
Archery1969
- Posts: 3217
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
- Location: Newport
He could very easily go before then if the anticipated 130 or so MP's who are voting against decide to cross the floor and side with Labour. The government would collapse as no laws could get passed.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:23 pmIf he wins the VoNC it will take 12 months to get rid of him. The party will be in the gutter by then.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:21 pmHe goes next year so the next leader has 18 months to prepare for election.
-
jamesedwards
- Posts: 2309
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Or Elvis could ride into Parliament on Shergar and crown Lord Lucan as the next PM.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:34 pmHe could very easily go before then if the anticipated 130 or so MP's who are voting against decide to cross the floor and side with Labour. The government would collapse as no laws could get passed.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:23 pmIf he wins the VoNC it will take 12 months to get rid of him. The party will be in the gutter by then.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:21 pm
He goes next year so the next leader has 18 months to prepare for election.
-
jamesedwards
- Posts: 2309
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
I imagine it's been the Conservative plan for some time for Boris to stay until next year before making way. If not then when pressure eventually reaches critical mass I wouldn't be surprised if he calls a snap election rather than resign.
I would imagine a worse result than May's VONC says it all. The party perceives BJ as an election liability, not an asset. And I'm certain there is also a cohort of Tory supporters and MP's that are fairly disgusted with his management.
But look at VONC's in the past. Tory darling Thatcher unceremoniusly dumped when no longer an election asset.
I think it's now about transition to the next leader.
The 1 year limit for the next VONC is irrelevent. BJ is finished and we now will have a PM that knows he''s done, which worries me tbh, with all the problems we have. Brexit progress hampered by Covid, Ukraine looking a bit dodgy with long range arms heading from the US/UK and promised Russian escalation as a result.
All in all a bit of a dog's breakfast for someone to inherit.
I imagine BJ will pick up a few "chicken feed" jobs for £250k a pop and laugh all the way to an easy life.
But look at VONC's in the past. Tory darling Thatcher unceremoniusly dumped when no longer an election asset.
I think it's now about transition to the next leader.
The 1 year limit for the next VONC is irrelevent. BJ is finished and we now will have a PM that knows he''s done, which worries me tbh, with all the problems we have. Brexit progress hampered by Covid, Ukraine looking a bit dodgy with long range arms heading from the US/UK and promised Russian escalation as a result.
All in all a bit of a dog's breakfast for someone to inherit.
I imagine BJ will pick up a few "chicken feed" jobs for £250k a pop and laugh all the way to an easy life.
"This is a very good result for politics and the country. In this sense I think it's a convincing result, it's a decisive result and what it means is that as a government we can move on and focus on the things that matter to the people".