Calculate percentage chance of odds movement

A place to discuss anything.
Post Reply
Micah1880
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:34 am

I'm not sure if this is really simple and I'm confusing myself or if it's not actually possible.

Is there a way to calculate how likely it is that odds will move from one point to another?

For example

If you laid at 1.02 there is a 98% chance you will lose but is it possible to work out the chances that odds will touch 1.5?

This must be over 2% but I cannot think if there is a way of calculating this.

Thanks
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

It's going to be completely dependent on what sport you are trading and when. There isn't a quite calculation you can do without knowing that information, most likely in the form of a standard deviation.
Micah1880
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:34 am

Thank you. At least I can stop trying to stretch my maths knowledge to its limit!!

For clarification this was specifically relating to tennis. For the last couple of months I have been tracking this data so I will carry on building a data set to work from.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Micah1880 wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:14 pm
Thank you. At least I can stop trying to stretch my maths knowledge to its limit!!

For clarification this was specifically relating to tennis. For the last couple of months I have been tracking this data so I will carry on building a data set to work from.
That's the way to do it.

You can short cut the process somewhat by using Tennis trader to model matches. That will tell you when the odds will be hit and the implied change the market is likely that this will happen.
Micah1880
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:34 am

Euler wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:19 pm
Micah1880 wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:14 pm
Thank you. At least I can stop trying to stretch my maths knowledge to its limit!!

For clarification this was specifically relating to tennis. For the last couple of months I have been tracking this data so I will carry on building a data set to work from.
That's the way to do it.

You can short cut the process somewhat by using Tennis trader to model matches. That will tell you when the odds will be hit and the implied change the market is likely that this will happen.

Great. Thanks again.
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”