Is a Losing backing system a winning lay system?

[Laytraders]

So just to clarify I would be bookmaking not backing/dutching. I’m reversing what the losing software did so I would be laying to fixed liability. I am essentially taking on the what the software said to back.

[Anbell]

So just to clarify I would be bookmaking not backing/dutching. I’m reversing what the losing software did so I would be laying to fixed liability. I am essentially taking on the what the software said to back.

Test it for small stakes and report back

[Derek27]

So just to clarify I would be bookmaking not backing/dutching. I’m reversing what the losing software did so I would be laying to fixed liability. I am essentially taking on the what the software said to back.

Were you backing these horses on the exchange or with a bookmaker?

[Laytraders]

We used the Australian TABS. The software would find the best prices.

[Anbell]

We used the Australian TABS. The software would find the best prices.

It's almost impossible to beat the 17%-ish rake at the TABs, so the flipside of that would almost certainly lose too.

[WisdomOfCrowds]

I keep a database based on backing the first four in the Racing Post betting forecast in handicap races only.

I have data for 16,788 races which translates to returns for 67,152 horses.

Based on Industry SPs, the returns are as follows:

Bets 67,152, Win 11,893, Returns 57,874.46, Loss -9,277.54, -13.82%

Based on BSPs with no commission deducted:

Bets 67,152, Win 11,893, Returns 67,210.50, Profit +58.50, +0.08%

If we could lay at the industry SPs we'd make a killing but the exchange prices offer no advantage to the backer or the layer.

Looking at the returns more closely also shows the impact of the bookmakers' favourite/longshot bias, confirming their over-round is greater at longer odds.

Analysis of races with a BSP of 5.00 or lower:

Industry SP returns: Bets 22,337, Win 6,671, Returns 20,979.34, Loss -1,357.66, -6.08%

BSP (no commission): Bets 22,337, Win 6,671, Returns 22,617.10, Profit +280.10, +1.25%

The ISP losses in this price range are 6.08%.

Races with a BSP greater than 5.00:

Industry SP Returns: Bets 44,815, Win 5,222, Returns 36,895.12, Loss -7,919.88, -17.67%
BSP (no commission): Bets 44,815, Win 5,222, Returns 44,593.40, Loss -221.60, -0.49%

The ISP losses are much greater at longer odds.

I hope these numbers help.

[Laytraders]

Thanks for the input. I guess it would be very interesting to see what happens with the average 20% price increase through the exchanges. I have noticed from yesterdays results alot of favs and low priced horses won, and also the ROI seems to be a lot higher. Roughly 36/37- over 40% in some cases.

Off topic slightly but does anyone know if more favs get up in the UK, as opposed to Australia? I could be wrong but I perceived more outsiders winning over there, or at least more than over here, but maybe it averages out over the year especially with the worsening conditions we endure over the winter months

[WisdomOfCrowds]

Thanks for the input. I guess it would be very interesting to see what happens with the average 20% price increase through the exchanges. I have noticed from yesterdays results alot of favs and low priced horses won, and also the ROI seems to be a lot higher. Roughly 36/37- over 40% in some cases.

Off topic slightly but does anyone know if more favs get up in the UK, as opposed to Australia? I could be wrong but I perceived more outsiders winning over there, or at least more than over here, but maybe it averages out over the year especially with the worsening conditions we endure over the winter months

Don't be misled by short-term trends. What happened yesterday forms an incredibly small part of a very, very big picture.

Whether more or fewer favourites win isn't really of consequence. Win rates are directly linked to the odds whether in Australia or GB. More favorites will win in non-handicaps as the odds will generally be lower than in handicaps but again that in itself doesn't really help.

The only way to win is to back outcomes when the odds more than cover the risk and to lay them when the odds don't cover the risk. Unfortunately, market efficiency means you can't simply back or lay a certain group and win money even though in the short-term there may be trends that might make you think you can.