RacestatApp

[Euler]

BSP doesn't include any Inplay element. Strategies based on BSP are flawed due to the accuracy of BSP generally. You can't beat the benchmark by using the benchmark.

BSP is resolved well into the race so it contains information specific to that race and how slowly the race was turned inplay. It's that simple.

I've quantified it.

So historic data using BSP is flawed as people are placing bets based on something that that isn't reflective of it's true chance. It's reflect of it's chance after it's travelled a certain distance. That information is not in the BSP database.

[Euler]

my take :
a data base with valuable info and its well maintained and cleaned up , is worth paying for....especially for those of us that are not experts in the field .

keeping personal data and making sure everything is up to date , is time consuming .
with a learning curve that won't necessarily guarantee accuracy of the final results.

24/7 accessible Database , from any computer, with fast uploads and great Dashboards is worth every penny , i would say .

I agree on that point, but with above caveats.

[Derek27]

My understanding is that BSP is reconciled from SP bets and the unmatched bets on the exchange that was present when the market goes in-play. Strictly speaking, it doesn't include in-play bets but that policy is meaningless when a race is put in-play ten seconds after the start and the favourite's slow to jump out of the stalls. There have been quite a few angry posts to the Australian thread in such cases.

[Euler]

a) correct me if I'm wrong , .... this should then result in an artificially manipulated BSP, which is Extremely Efficient ?

b) say there is a way to measure the manipulation with the intent to adjust the final BSP value accordingly , would you still hold the position of BSP being flawed.

c) ruling out any value in BSP or you are only against how its packaged and used ?

You are betting on a 0-0 scoreline on football. I'm betting on a match where I already know who has scored the first goal. You will be at a disadvantage to me.

BSP is supposed to reflect the chance of a horse winning before the off, not when it's already inplay. So unless you have access to that data to include in the analysis, you will not know what the BSP actually is. It's a quality of data issue.

I don't know if people understand what I'm doing here. I've seen a problem with BSP, not this app in particular, and I'm trying to warn people of the flaw.

[decomez6]

a) correct me if I'm wrong , .... this should then result in an artificially manipulated BSP, which is Extremely Efficient ?

b) say there is a way to measure the manipulation with the intent to adjust the final BSP value accordingly , would you still hold the position of BSP being flawed.

c) ruling out any value in BSP or you are only against how its packaged and used ?

You are betting on a 0-0 scoreline on football. I'm betting on a match where I already know who has scored the first goal. You will be at a disadvantage to me.

BSP is supposed to reflect the chance of a horse winning before the off, not when it's already inplay. So unless you have access to that data to include in the analysis, you will not know what the BSP actually is. It's a quality of data issue.

I don't know if people understand what I'm doing here. I've seen a problem with BSP, not this app in particular, and I'm trying to warn people of the flaw.

Great !
well clarified ,
i would go further and suggest ...a collection of subscriptions to consider .

1. trading platform for execution ....BET ANGEL
2. 'accurate ' In-play data...................TPD
3.historical efficiency tracker ......... RACESTATAPP

[decomez6]

My understanding is that BSP is reconciled from SP bets and the unmatched bets on the exchange that was present when the market goes in-play. Strictly speaking, it doesn't include in-play bets but that policy is meaningless when a race is put in-play ten seconds after the start and the favourite's slow to jump out of the stalls. There have been quite a few angry posts to the Australian thread in such cases.

hi Derek

http://www.thesprc.org/

the mandated body to regulate and monitor Starting price in the horse industry.... check out their downloads on the current state of affairs.

[Derek27]

My understanding is that BSP is reconciled from SP bets and the unmatched bets on the exchange that was present when the market goes in-play. Strictly speaking, it doesn't include in-play bets but that policy is meaningless when a race is put in-play ten seconds after the start and the favourite's slow to jump out of the stalls. There have been quite a few angry posts to the Australian thread in such cases.

hi Derek

http://www.thesprc.org/

the mandated body to regulate and monitor Starting price in the horse industry.... check out their downloads on the current state of affairs.

I thought you were just talking about Betfair, not industry SP. I've never cared much about ISP. I've seen John McCirick show on live TV at the racecourse how it's compiled. Absolute farce! Just a group of men going around the betting ring with a notebook and pen noting prices at the off and then getting together to find an average.

[ShaunWhite]

BSP doesn't include any Inplay element. .

BSP is resolved well into the race so it contains information specific to that race and how slowly the race was turned inplay. It's that simple.

Technically yes so I stand corrected but I don't find that element of unbiased randomness affects the bigger picture. Maybe because I have bets on the majority of selections not just one or two where it might be more obvious.

"well into the race"? What do you see as average?

[verance]

If a 2.0 horse delays 1 second before leaving the stalls so BSP is 3.0, which is better to use going forward in a statistical analysis? Would you go further, say if the horse sweats up badly in the 30 seconds pre-race and drifts to 3.0, which is better to use then?

I think if you're not including that data in your analysis, you're better off letting the market include it for you? At least my own model performs better on BSP but it's only a very slight difference.