Fugazi wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:07 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:47 am
Fugazi wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:14 am
I meant asking it questions
For example i gave it some data and started with "find a winning strategy"
Its first strategy was to pick all the horses that won...
So i then had to explain why thats an idiotic suggestion and explained more specifically the kind of thing im trying to do.
In the end it found something quite clever. A lot of back and forth.
I agree there's a lot of back and forth, but it's worthwhile.
It's revolutionised my excel sheets and formulas. I can accurately rate a horse-race with its' own tissue price, create a tick box post-data presentation, and predict a race after its' swept through all the key data in micro seconds. Makes Bill Benters 'data model redundant...(yeah right...not quite)
The main reason for producing it, is to see where the early value is for backing/laying.
The bookies seemed to have gotten lazy by following each other like sheep and relying on banning the winning punter to avoid losing. If the punter does win, then they find a reason not to pay!
Ive been thinking of similar..im already pretty accurate predicting greyhounds as theres not too many metrics that are significant. Just compare times/distances mostly
Horses however , seems a lot more factors involved. Jockeys / weight/ trainer/ ground changes. Too much for me to factor together at the moment. Not to mention greyhounds have only a few distances really and same field size.
Feel like horses have a lot more depth to analysis as well.. some even have spotters that watch them train. Greyhounds dont have the liquidity for people to bother analysing as deeply so dont need to try as hard predicting price
I did look at greyhounds quite a lot a while back. Reckon there's still money to be made straight backing or laying, mainly by specialising at certain tracks that favour front runners. Produce a split to 1st bend rating and all overall time rating will short-list the contenders, then it's a question of being in the right grade compared to the other runners.
Yes, the variables in horse racing are many. The ones that are known in the form book are fairly straight forward to assess, it's the unknown ones that are tougher to account for, and usually only once the result is final. It's satisfying when it comes right.
Today; Al Suil Eile Won @ 14/1. My tissue was 5.41 taking into account its' overall profile and data points. This of course represented value, but paranoia can creep in, second guessing yourself thinking the trainer/connections aren't trying. They backed the favourite off the board down to 15/8 as though defeat was out of the question, cementing further doubt in your algorithm. That's why we use bots to take away the emotion and take the value spots when they come.
Here's a SWOT analysis I did a while back that got me started and then asking Chat GPT further questions.
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