Evaluating a Strategy

[robsmith]

Hello guys, what are the best ways of evaluating a betting (ie one-way positions, no closing) strategy? I've calculated p-values but is there a better way? Thanks

[JP Esq]

Its no help to the OP, but I came here with a similar matter.

With regards to horse racing, I was wondering if the book % of the Betfair SP's could be used as the marker for the "correct" price? In other words, if you were able to always get 1 tick better then the BSP, would you have a long term profitable strategy (assuming no commission and proper bankroll management etc)

Or are the BSP's (in the long run) not to be trusted?

[Trader724]

Backtesting and forward testing.

[Trader724]

Its no help to the OP, but I came here with a similar matter.

With regards to horse racing, I was wondering if the book % of the Betfair SP's could be used as the marker for the "correct" price? In other words, if you were able to always get 1 tick better then the BSP, would you have a long term profitable strategy (assuming no commission and proper bankroll management etc)

Or are the BSP's (in the long run) not to be trusted?

In theory if you were consistently able to get a price better than the BSP you could have a profitable strategy.

[JP Esq]

Thanks for the reply Trader,

Yeah, thats what I originally thought but Ive seen examples where the BSP's have returned overbroke. I wondered if something else was amiss?

[Trader724]

BSP is generally considered to be a very accurate reflection of the true odds and although it's not infallible, in the long run it's perfectly efficient so it's a good idea to compare it to your prices even if it returns overbroke on occasion.