Trade That Went Wrong But Still Profited

[andy28]

I still keep an eye on the markets and look for specific setups to trade, and I stick strictly to those. Recently someone placed a significant bet of 5K (2.26) two ticks back. Sensing an opportunity, I jumped in front placing two bets, both of which were taken. I then set a stop loss one tick behind this large bet, just in case they didn't actually want to be matched.

As I suspected, they did want to be matched and the price started to drop, giving me confidence that the horse would continue to gain momentum. I placed two more bets and noticed others experiencing FOMO and jumping in front of this large bet as well. My initial target exit was at 1.99, and I was optimistic it would steam through that point so I decided to cancel that and move it lower.

Unfortunately, this is where things went wrong. Instead of canceling my exit at 1.99, I mistakenly clicked on "green up" at 1.98. Realising my error just as it happened, the price plummeted to 1.76 and took both of my lay bets before I could cancel them.

Fortunately, the price retraced slightly 1.83ish, and I managed to exit with a $4 profit instead of the $25 I should have earned.

On the bright side, the set up was sound. The error was mine so entirely within my control. Despite this brain fart, I believe I played the situation well overall. I just need to fully follow the methodology and only ever have one exit in the market at one time.

I did think of splitting my exit into smaller bets but as this was being driven by fomo at the time the big bet was still there and I thought they were going to just dump it all in and take what they could get, again my thinking was correct. What I didn't understand is why did they advertised the fact they wanted a bet, when it appeared there was enough money to get matched down to $2.00 so would have say matched at an ave of 2.1 in stead of probably around 1.9 the would have gotten?

[Kai]

Ye, with placing big bets in an easily spooked market I think it's better to just wipe a couple ticks to ensure it's matched

Slowly dragging it along just gives traders the opportunity to get in front and ride it out

Much like you did there, gj

[Fugazi]

Interesting post Andy. Funny thing I had never thought to stick a stop loss behind the big bet (as often they do suddenly remove it)

May have a revisit of an old strategy myself I couldn't quite get working before

Not quite understanding the last part. Are you asking why they werent a bit more subtle and used smaller amounts perhaps at 2.1, 2.12, 2.14 rather than sticking a big wod on 2.1 and spooking the market ? They may have not cared if they had a big enough edge and just wanted to stick the money there and move on to another market.

OR

They were manipulating the whole market in some way and it is part of a bigger plan

[Anbell]

I still keep an eye on the markets and look for specific setups to trade, and I stick strictly to those. Recently someone placed a significant bet of 5K (2.26) two ticks back. Sensing an opportunity, I jumped in front placing two bets, both of which were taken. I then set a stop loss one tick behind this large bet, just in case they didn't actually want to be matched.

As I suspected, they did want to be matched and the price started to drop, giving me confidence that the horse would continue to gain momentum. I placed two more bets and noticed others experiencing FOMO and jumping in front of this large bet as well. My initial target exit was at 1.99, and I was optimistic it would steam through that point so I decided to cancel that and move it lower.

Unfortunately, this is where things went wrong. Instead of canceling my exit at 1.99, I mistakenly clicked on "green up" at 1.98. Realising my error just as it happened, the price plummeted to 1.76 and took both of my lay bets before I could cancel them.

Fortunately, the price retraced slightly 1.83ish, and I managed to exit with a $4 profit instead of the $25 I should have earned.

On the bright side, the set up was sound. The error was mine so entirely within my control. Despite this brain fart, I believe I played the situation well overall. I just need to fully follow the methodology and only ever have one exit in the market at one time.

I did think of splitting my exit into smaller bets but as this was being driven by fomo at the time the big bet was still there and I thought they were going to just dump it all in and take what they could get, again my thinking was correct. What I didn't understand is why did they advertised the fact they wanted a bet, when it appeared there was enough money to get matched down to $2.00 so would have say matched at an ave of 2.1 in stead of probably around 1.9 the would have gotten?

Thanks for the fresh perspective on an old school trade

[Kai]

driven by fomo

There may be an even greater fear than FOMO... the dreaded FOFOMO

[Kai]

On the bright side, the set up was sound. The error was mine so entirely within my control. Despite this brain fart, I believe I played the situation well overall. I just need to fully follow the methodology and only ever have one exit in the market at one time.

Tbf exits are much easier to botch than entries and can lead to much annoyance with a single exit bet, sensibly averaging out your exit would help not to invoke emotions like fear and greed

Ultimately it's all about how much of the market you can read really, whether it's a big order sticking out or the more subtler activity

All falls under the order flow umbrella term, and it's been well documented that it's not a bad way to trade!

[The Silk Run]

Some interesting concepts of operations. Some of which I can relate to ...
As a gambler I often combine gambling, and trading skills to strike bets.

[Kai]

I often combine gambling, and trading skills to strike bets.

Same, I have much to learn about value betting but I try to balance both worlds, after starting purely on the trader end of the spectrum

Either way, pro(fitable) traders are nothing more than pro(fessional) coin flippers

Or at least that's how I like to see things : https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-qvC0ISkp1k

[ForFolksSake]

I often combine gambling, and trading skills to strike bets.

Same, I have much to learn about value betting but I try to balance both worlds, after starting purely on the trader end of the spectrum

Either way, pro(fitable) traders are nothing more than pro(fessional) coin flippers

Or at least that's how I like to see things : https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-qvC0ISkp1k

Except there is no skill in coin flipping

[Kai]

Except there is no skill in coin flipping

Depends on the coin you're flipping

[Tuco]

I did think of splitting my exit into smaller bets but as this was being driven by fomo at the time the big bet was still there and I thought they were going to just dump it all in and take what they could get, again my thinking was correct. What I didn't understand is why did they advertised the fact they wanted a bet, when it appeared there was enough money to get matched down to $2.00 so would have say matched at an ave of 2.1 in stead of probably around 1.9 the would have gotten?

"I did think of splitting my exit into smaller bets"

...another example of where my suggested 'percentage of greening' option could have been used by andy28 to scale out of his position with greening at various decreasing odds thus maximising his P&L return and whilst not spooking the market with a large lump.

A percentage box at the top of the ladder would be able to offer this very useful option for those of us that trade manually. Suggested percentage options would be 100% (which is what it currently is), 50%, 33⅓%, 25%, 20%, 10% and perhaps 5%. It could be used to reduce the net stake (without greening) or green a percentage of your position at various different odds, thus maximising your P&L return (if all matched) and also not spooking the market with a large lump.

Please consider this 'percentage of greening' option for the next BA update.

[andy28]

Interesting post Andy. Funny thing I had never thought to stick a stop loss behind the big bet (as often they do suddenly remove it)

May have a revisit of an old strategy myself I couldn't quite get working before

Not quite understanding the last part. Are you asking why they werent a bit more subtle and used smaller amounts perhaps at 2.1, 2.12, 2.14 rather than sticking a big wod on 2.1 and spooking the market ? They may have not cared if they had a big enough edge and just wanted to stick the money there and move on to another market.

OR

They were manipulating the whole market in some way and it is part of a bigger plan

The bet was placed two ticks back and stayed there for a while. Meanwhile, myself and others managed to get ahead and secure a position. meanwhile all the lay bettors ducked for cover. When the large bet first appeared, it seemed to me they could have been matched fully between 2.26 and 2. So why didn't they just enter at 2 and take all the money sitting there? However they signaled their intentions so clearly that even a novice like me could anticipate what was going to happen. Why not just enter at 2 and take it all? Everyone then would have been WTF!!!!

I follow Peter's trading videos, and he bets according to his confidence levels. After seeing the bet getting matched, my confidence level was about 8.5. I considered legging out which is what I typically do, but I was confident they were going to drive it down to around 1.8. Thus, my strategy was sound, but my execution was lacking.

Tuco you're right I should have put in one or two exit points and established a stop loss I was comfortable with, then watch and exit when it dried up

[Fugazi]

Interesting post Andy. Funny thing I had never thought to stick a stop loss behind the big bet (as often they do suddenly remove it)

May have a revisit of an old strategy myself I couldn't quite get working before

Not quite understanding the last part. Are you asking why they werent a bit more subtle and used smaller amounts perhaps at 2.1, 2.12, 2.14 rather than sticking a big wod on 2.1 and spooking the market ? They may have not cared if they had a big enough edge and just wanted to stick the money there and move on to another market.

OR

They were manipulating the whole market in some way and it is part of a bigger plan

The bet was placed two ticks back and stayed there for a while. Meanwhile, myself and others managed to get ahead and secure a position. meanwhile all the lay bettors ducked for cover. When the large bet first appeared, it seemed to me they could have been matched fully between 2.26 and 2. So why didn't they just enter at 2 and take all the money sitting there? However they signaled their intentions so clearly that even a novice like me could anticipate what was going to happen. Why not just enter at 2 and take it all? Everyone then would have been WTF!!!!

I follow Peter's trading videos, and he bets according to his confidence levels. After seeing the bet getting matched, my confidence level was about 8.5. I considered legging out which is what I typically do, but I was confident they were going to drive it down to around 1.8. Thus, my strategy was sound, but my execution was lacking.

Tuco you're right I should have put in one or two exit points and established a stop loss I was comfortable with, then watch and exit when it dried up

2.0 may have been too low for them. They may have predicted the horses true odds were around 1.9 - 2.0 so only willing to accept say 2.2 for example for some wriggle room.

Alternatively, they had already backed at say 1.9 and were trying to influence the market so they can then lay at 1.8.

[andy28]

But in the end they took everything from around 2.04 down to about 1.76 in one hit so their ave odds may have been 1.90ish whereas had they gone in one hit at 2 the ave may have been 2.10ish.

Could have been a punter that just wanted matched at a better price than the bookies were offering

[Fugazi]

But in the end they took everything from around 2.04 down to about 1.76 in one hit so their ave odds may have been 1.90ish whereas had they gone in one hit at 2 the ave may have been 2.10ish.

Could have been a punter that just wanted matched at a better price than the bookies were offering

Yeah in that case probably just a punter.

Or someone that started panicking and greened up in the end at a loss