Betfair trading for beginners - Part 1 Starting out.

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2046
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Trading – the journey begins! Advice for new traders.

I get asked on a daily basis “what is the one thing you can show me that will work and make money?” My answer is always the same, “Get a job, it never fails”

That may sound flippant or even harsh but sadly it is also very true.

I will start by explaining how I got into trading for those who perhaps are new to the forum and have not read my posts. I started trading in late 2001, I cannot remember the exact date but it was around 6 months after Betfair started up. As some of you know, I had a misspent youth frequenting dark and smoky betting shops with my Grandfather. He was a certified A Grade, 100 percent, mug punter which worked to my advantage. When I saw him losing money and basically addicted to betting I knew it was not a path I wanted to follow.

I was approached by someone who shall remain anonymous. He wanted to use my race profiling skills to create a piece of software that would ensure a win no matter what the result. I thought the guy was a loony as I would need a bookmaker’s license to achieve that. Then Flutter came along shortly followed by Betfair and suddenly it all made sense.

I started with a simple strategy; I would use my race profiling to determine which horses were likely to attract money and which horses were not. It worked well so then I started looking at other ways to profit. I started to profile running styles and trade that way. Then it all came crashing down. I found I could not get my money into the market quickly enough to achieve a match. It used to hurt when you made the right call but then couldn’t get the order matched in time. I had to think again and that meant 1-click software for submitting my orders. I found three back then and you do not get any points for realising I chose Bet Angel as my preferred software. That was it, I was now on my way to trading. At that time it was purely form based with the odd reactionary trade where I spotted a drifter or a steamer. I started emailing Bet Angel with questions and ideas; looking back, some were stupid but I didn’t know that at the time. I always say to people there is no such thing as a stupid question, if you do not know the answer then how can it be stupid?

So 12 years later here I am still having fun in the markets. I cannot emphasise the fun part enough, if you don’t enjoy trading then you are probably doomed from the start. That is just my honest opinion borne out of years working in industry and then in trading, if you enjoy something then you stand a greater chance of excelling than if you are doing something out of necessity i.e. making money. I know some people will say “well making money is fun” but trust me you should enjoy the trading first and the money second. The money will come and keep coming if you are enjoying it and doing the correct things. If it is stressful then you will struggle.

So I will finish this section with the number one requirement. ENJOY IT!
Tradertrician
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon May 20, 2013 7:15 am
Location: Suffolk

What a fantastic post JG and the kind of stuff a newbie like me loves reading. I find it so interesting and inspiring to hear stories of the early days of traders experiences.

I have been studying trading since last November and it absolutely fascinates me. My relationship even bit the dust back in Feb because of the time I was spending on researching trading but I knew deep down I wanted to teach myself how to do this no matter how long it takes and I really needed to be single to be able to do that properly and in the end my girlfriend walked out but I knew it was for the best and let her go.

I have had a crap year (and that's saying something from a man who has 2 failed marriages behind him) with 3 other awful things happening in my life since Feb, the last being at the end of June and each time it has knocked my will to want to do this but each time I keep coming back with more will than ever. Every time I felt I was starting to get somewhere, life would chuck a spanner in the works resulting in knocking my drive to learn back down.

But, my passion is football and ever since May I have been waiting for the footy season to start so I could really get stuck back in again and my will to learn is stronger than ever.

Think my biggest problem is focusing on the ideas I have, I'm jumping from one to another and will rarely be still working on an idea for more than 1 day before I convince myself it won't work and move on to another. Peter's blog post titled 'Procrastination is the enemy of success' is me all over and was a great read.

The funny thing is I'm now finding myself going over ideas I had and dismissed back in the early part of this year and because I now understand how the markets work much much more, they now appear to be much more promising and I know deep down I just need to concentrate on each one over a period of time and refine how to carry out each trade.

I have never enjoyed the feeling of gambling, in fact I hate it and I believe this has helped me to be very disciplined with the trading I have done so far, I placed £100 in to my Betfair account last November, I have never had to add any more and still have around £100 in there today (obviously using small stakes), I never get the urge to chase a loss and I can go days without having a trade, instead preferring to spend time either reading up or back testing ideas.

I feel I'm still a very very long way away from being able to carry out a trade with 100% confidence in my abilities to handle what the market may throw at me but

I absolutely bloody love doing this and JG is bang on, enjoying it is the key, without doubt its what keeps me believing and keeps me going stronger than ever.

Thanks JG for sharing your beginnings. If anyone else wants to share theirs I would love to read them :)

Paul
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JollyGreen
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Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Hi Paul

Thank you for your kind and positive words. My aim is to write a series of these posts to help new traders. I will cover mindset, general equipment setup and then market thoughts including some myth busting.

I will not be giving some magic moves; there aren't any! I will however give my take on the market in such a way it will make new traders think about their approach.

JG
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

That will be very useful.

I hope that your series of posts are made into stickies.

I look forward to the next installment. :)

Jeff
JollyGreen wrote:I will however give my take on the market in such a way it will make new traders think about their approach.

JG
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gazuty
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Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Just so glad you are well again and up to writing.
nizzy99
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:49 pm

I like this having just started trading betfair ill have a read through some of your other posts.

I have been trading the stock market for some 6years now and while I still continue to do that I thought this would be good fun as well.
Hambleden
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:12 am

Hi! Am trialling BA and need some help. The user guide tells me that if WOM figure is red the horse should drift. I had a horse at 86% red..but when i looked at it's price/vol over time chart- it showed it to be shortening slightly..so the two are opposites. I'm totally confused..can someone explain this? Thanks.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Hi Hambleden

The relationship between weight of money (WOM) and price action is debatable. Some people swear by WOM, whereas other traders regard it as being about as useful as tea leaves in predicting what will happen next! :lol:

Whatever your view of WOM though, nothing is certain in the market - anything can happen at any time.

BTW, you don't need to know what the price is going to do next (or even what it's probably going to do next) to make money.

Enjoy your trading journey. :)

Jeff
Hambleden wrote:Hi! Am trialling BA and need some help. The user guide tells me that if WOM figure is red the horse should drift. I had a horse at 86% red..but when i looked at it's price/vol over time chart- it showed it to be shortening slightly..so the two are opposites. I'm totally confused..can someone explain this? Thanks.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2046
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

I will just say this, WOM is never wrong, it is only interpretation that is wrong.

There are three mechanisms that move the price of a horse and they are all driven by one thing, money. It is either lack of it or more of it.

1. No interest in a horse, price will drift slowly. This is simple market forces, if you want action you must improve your offer and someone always will if you do not.

2. Actively opposing a horse as layers see a weakness. This horse could be sweating, playing up, pulling en route to the start etc. He could have stamina doubts, going concerns etc. This will see the layers dominate and when they see the price move it reinforces their view and the drift continues.

3. Actively supporting a horse which means the price contracts. Perhaps it is the favourite and everything mentioned in point 2 is solid or as solid as you can reasonably expect. Perhaps the closest contender looks poor or has doubts which means the fav takes the money.

You can use spreadsheets to analyse the data and prove this to be incorrect because if you want to find some data then you will. It is down to simple money exchange but many always want to make it more complex than it really is. I think some people hang on to the belief it is very complex so when it goes Pete Tong they pull out the "it's very complex" card.

One caveat. There are some markets where WOM is unreliable, these are generally lower quality events where there is either a lack of genuine money or it is very slow and prolonged in its arrival to the market. You then get "trader tennis" as they hit the price backward and forward. Now I am not going to write on here how I spot these markets but to be honest I think most of us can sift them out. When they occur I simply sit back and watch, if the tennis traders run of money or cease then often an opportunity can occur. If no trend appears then I move onto the next market.

Watch the markets and you will soon spot the trader tennis versions! Once you learn to avoid these it will dramatically improve your ability to read the others with more reliability.
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Hi JG

I agree with what you write about drifters and steamers, but I'm not clear how that relates to WOM.

At the risk of asking a silly question, how are you defining WOM? Are you using the common definition of money waiting to be backed in the three columns nearest the spread vs money waiting to be laid, expressed in proportional terms?

Jeff
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JollyGreen
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Jeff

Sorry for the slow reply, I suffered toxic shock syndrome over the weekend and I only get the odd window to get online!

This isn't a daft question and it actually reinforces what I said about misinterpretation of WOM.

The money queuing is often hard to interpret so I tend to take a simple view of it. Most of the money is pointless and is often there to create the illusion of pressure in either relevant direction. Some of the money is genuine and is often value seekers or traders looking to offer money or ask for a price. So I tend t focus on the front of the queue and which side is dominant as this will often indicate direction. Now I know some will say you do not need to know direction but trust me it helps!

Once the move starts it is then purely a WOM mechanism. If the money keeps coming the move will continue, if the money slows down or money opposes it then it may halt the move either temporarily or permanently. Some moves start in a genuine manner and are then pushed on by reactive money. For example, a horse starts to attract support and the price drops. As people react to this move they will try to catch the money. Some will miss so their money will line up behind the main price thus adding to the illusion of pressure. Others will jump in right at the front or even in front as they try to catch the move.

In a genuine gamble on a horse you will often see a different pattern emerging. It will start as described above but then as people realise the move is genuine they decide they cannot queue or they will miss the move. You will then notice very little queuing and the % figures will often show 80% on the lay side. This often catches out many inexperienced traders as they see plenty of money on the lay side but very little on the back side. They often hesitate and wait for a true sign this is a genuine move. Usually it moves x ticks and having received the confirmation they required they join the market to find it's too late. Please remember this is an approximation of a move and whilst tick amounts can vary the outcome is pretty much the same. The money on the lay side is a mixture of players looking to get a value lay, those who are willing to chance they are close to the bottom of the range (they'll jump ship if they're wrong) and people laying off having backed at a higher price.

Think about a bucket with a rectangular baffled hole in it. The water flowing into the bucket is the backers' money. The layers are responsible for maintaining the water level i.e. the price level. The layers do this by closing up the hole as best they can and the money flows out from the top of the hole first If the money keeps coming they cannot fill the hole quickly enough so as the water flows out the level drops. If the money flowing in slows down it allows the layers more time to patch up the hole and halt the dropping level.

Now think about the hole in relation to the market. If you fill the bottom of the hole, i.e. layers' money queued at lower price, it will not stop the water flowing out of the hole although it will slow it. The only way to stop the flow is the fill the hole form the top first. If the first filler fails then it drops to the next level (tick) if that goes it drops again. The layers cannot fill the hole if the money comes too fast but they keep trying. The brave (maybe stupid) will try and fill the top, the more cautious (maybe clever) will queue lower down and hope the brave jump in front. If the brave are swept aside then many of the cautious will abandon their position and the hole enlarges meaning the level drops.

If the backers' money slows down it allows the layers more time to patch the hole and as they close it up the level rises.

This is why the spread expressed as a percentage is next to useless, you should concentrate on the money at the front. Adding patches (money) lower down will not stop the price dropping as it isn't closing the hole.

If you think about the money flowing this way it helps you to recognise real trends.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Thanks JG - very interesting.

I hope you're feeling better.

Jeff
walker1222
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:17 pm

Intresting post just getting started in the world of trading, quick question do you think its possible to make a full time living off trading the betfair market if you have like you said a passion for it and find it fun to do?
coolrider502000
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Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:54 pm

I'm not sure I'm posting on the correct board. I've been trading for a while, on and off. I have made quite a lot of money, doubling my initial bank four times, doubling the stake size each time. At the end of it, the whole lot ends up breaking even - no more or less. That is why I've given up. In my book trading is worthwhile if you can achieve an assured income over time - if you can't it's a waste of your time. The staking plan I was using yielded a profit on the trades as it obviously must, but I simply could not get all of them matched. The residual loss on the unmatched lays is almost exactly equal to the matched profit. The data sample was 2000 - 3000 bets and the net returns had stabilised to a variation of under 1%.

I leased Bet Angel for a 3 month trial - it's a very impressive piece of software, but I found it didn't help with the staking plan I was using.

My real question is this: Would going on one of the courses at the Betangel Academy help me to crack the problem, or would it be a waste of money?
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Dallas
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coolrider502000 wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:21 pm
I'm not sure I'm posting on the correct board. I've been trading for a while, on and off. I have made quite a lot of money, doubling my initial bank four times, doubling the stake size each time. At the end of it, the whole lot ends up breaking even - no more or less. That is why I've given up. In my book trading is worthwhile if you can achieve an assured income over time - if you can't it's a waste of your time. The staking plan I was using yielded a profit on the trades as it obviously must, but I simply could not get all of them matched. The residual loss on the unmatched lays is almost exactly equal to the matched profit. The data sample was 2000 - 3000 bets and the net returns had stabilised to a variation of under 1%.

I leased Bet Angel for a 3 month trial - it's a very impressive piece of software, but I found it didn't help with the staking plan I was using.

My real question is this: Would going on one of the courses at the Betangel Academy help me to crack the problem, or would it be a waste of money?
A trading course will teach you how to read/understand what your seeing in a market, what to look for, what drives price movements, why things tend to happen etc

It sounds like your staking plan is the main problem and you got to the stage where the market couldn't handle the size stakes you were trying to use, every sport and every market has its limit for both manual and automated trading including horse racing (assuming that's what you were trading mostly).

A regular weekday market cant take anywhere near of the size stakes you could put through and get matched at say a festival like Cheltenham or Royal Ascot etc so you have to ensure the stake you use is proportionate to whats available in the market - with stakes to big for the market you will get every bet that goes against you fully matched but rarely every one that goes in your favour, and getting out of a trade going against you is impossible without taking really bad prices and additional losses.

Try ditching your staking plan and look more at what the market can absorb, a good rule of thumb is never enter with a stake unless the 3 prices in the opposite direction have enough money waiting to fully get out if needed.
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