Yes, uncertainty can be a profit opportunity but it depends on the type of uncertainty. Uncertainty in the market with punters backing and laying and odds swinging can be a profitable thing but uncertainty in an action such as a goal is scored or a wicket falls is a random action, cannot be planned and is usually down to luck if you are exposed or not when the ball goes over the line.
Some basic questions
- firlandsfarm
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It's up to the trader to make sure that any risk he takes is a calculated one, goes without saying. Even though there are many good traders around that accept this sort of "inplay randomness" for lack of a better word, because for them it evens out in the long run, while all the work that they do in between more than makes up for it.
Talking about jumping all over the place, something i've noticed is when viewing the betangeltv videos when Peter enters a position all seems nice and calm, he swings into the green with a minimum of fuss and gently eases out, even when the start of the race is a 60 seconds or so away. When I am looking at the market it always seems that from about 5 minutes before jump the prices start fluctuating quite violently. Last night for instance a few minutes before races in England the price swings were frenetic. No entering gently into a trade like Peter always seems to. From what I have seen so far most of the time this is the case just frantic up and down movement as the race gets closer. Just wondering where Peter gets these gentle moving markets from. Can anyone enlighten me.
- firlandsfarm
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I share your thoughts Gary which is why I don't trade. I do price watch in an attempt to understand. A typical example for me was a race last week when the price had been steady for a reasonable time then suddenly jumped 10 ticks for no reason I could see. WOM was within 60/40 range, spread of money was reasonably balanced both sides, price history was stable, no new/fake money suddenly hit the market. Maybe it was caused by a sudden crash in the price of the 4th or 5th favourite, I don't know and with bots constantly trawling the markets for over/under books every millisecond such price moves are instantaneous anyway. You don't get the time to say "that one is coming in so this one will probably go out". I just laughed at the absurdity of it!garydodge wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:17 amTalking about jumping all over the place, something i've noticed is when viewing the betangeltv videos when Peter enters a position all seems nice and calm, he swings into the green with a minimum of fuss and gently eases out, even when the start of the race is a 60 seconds or so away. When I am looking at the market it always seems that from about 5 minutes before jump the prices start fluctuating quite violently. Last night for instance a few minutes before races in England the price swings were frenetic. No entering gently into a trade like Peter always seems to. From what I have seen so far most of the time this is the case just frantic up and down movement as the race gets closer. Just wondering where Peter gets these gentle moving markets from. Can anyone enlighten me.
I'd guess some of those videos where from a few years ago when the markets were a bit more stable.garydodge wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:17 amTalking about jumping all over the place, something i've noticed is when viewing the betangeltv videos when Peter enters a position all seems nice and calm, he swings into the green with a minimum of fuss and gently eases out, even when the start of the race is a 60 seconds or so away. When I am looking at the market it always seems that from about 5 minutes before jump the prices start fluctuating quite violently. Last night for instance a few minutes before races in England the price swings were frenetic. No entering gently into a trade like Peter always seems to. From what I have seen so far most of the time this is the case just frantic up and down movement as the race gets closer. Just wondering where Peter gets these gentle moving markets from. Can anyone enlighten me.
- ShaunWhite
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- firlandsfarm
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Maybe people like Gary and I need a graph showing a Stability Factor against volume! If North/South is stability and East/West is volume then I assume it would be an X^2 curve.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:21 amProbably weak markets, I'm guessing the markets you've see in videos are ones with plenty of money in them. It's like physics, the more mass there is the more stable it is.
- ShaunWhite
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I've always assumed that's what the risk meter shows. Can't comment though cos I've never used it.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:45 amMaybe people like Gary and I need a graph showing a Stability Factor against volume! If North/South is stability and East/West is volume then I assume it would be an X^2 curve.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:21 amProbably weak markets, I'm guessing the markets you've see in videos are ones with plenty of money in them. It's like physics, the more mass there is the more stable it is.
i may be wrong, but any orders (fake or otherwise) are placed on the order book (as you'll see when you place an order that's unmatched - your available funds shrink to reflect this). that order book will show what's waiting (as in *available on the other side of the book*), even if the orders are subsequently withdrawn. WOM is related to what is waiting, rather than what's been already serviced (tho of course, it has to be *there* before it can be available on the other side of the book - ).
Its the unmatched amounts of the best 3 prices on either side of the book, which in BA you have the option (on the Display tab of your main settings area) of how much weight you want to give to each price
- firlandsfarm
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Weight of Money: does it take into account that at odds of say 3.00 you need double the amount prepared to Lay to balance that prepared to Back or am I being completely stupid!
Flow of Money: Would this be a good monitor of the pressure of new money and whether it's in the back side ( two words and no hyphen! ) or the Lay side. I'm thinking Flow = (MoneyNow - MoneyBefore) + MoneyMatched where MoneyBefore was the money position at the start of a period and MoneyMatched is within the period. I've no idea if I've got that formula right nor over what period to use … I'm just thinking aloud!
Flow of Money: Would this be a good monitor of the pressure of new money and whether it's in the back side ( two words and no hyphen! ) or the Lay side. I'm thinking Flow = (MoneyNow - MoneyBefore) + MoneyMatched where MoneyBefore was the money position at the start of a period and MoneyMatched is within the period. I've no idea if I've got that formula right nor over what period to use … I'm just thinking aloud!