AFL Grand final match odds vs premiership winners

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the4droogs
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 11:47 am
Location: Canberra, Australia

At the time of writing this there is an interesting situation in the Match Odds, and Premiership Winners markets for the AFL. If you are reading this in the future, this post was written in the week leading up to the grand final when there are only two teams left in the competition. Currently the back price for Richmond to be premiers is 1.92. Yet you can lay them for 1.91 to win the Grand Final. The liquidity is only a few hundred dollars so there's not a lot of profit to be made, but still it begs the question:

Is there a situation where a team could win the Grand Final but not be awarded the premiership?

Some possibilities that spring to mind:

- A team is not awarded the premiership because of serious misconduct - possible, but I would have thought that sort of thing would take months to be decided and eventually the team guilty of the misconduct would be stripped of the premiership, well after the premiership market has been settled.

- The draw. I don't follow AFL that closely but I know in the regular season a draw is a draw - no overtime. But I'm guessing in the Grand Final there would be overtime periods or mechanisms to ensure a winner on the night, and that the Match Odds market would cover this.

Any thoughts?
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

the4droogs wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:21 pm
Is there a situation where a team could win the Grand Final but not be awarded the premiership?
No
the4droogs wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:21 pm
- The draw. I don't follow AFL that closely but I know in the regular season a draw is a draw - no overtime. But I'm guessing in the Grand Final there would be overtime periods or mechanisms to ensure a winner on the night, and that the Match Odds market would cover this.
Previously, the AFL (and VFL predecessor) allowed drawn grand finals (a new match would be played the following Saturday). Not any more, there is now extra time played (and further time until a winner emerges).

There are often markets where the Premiership market or Tournament winner market varies slightly from the match odds market. There can be anomolies, amount of games in tennis for the match odds to be valid, vs the tournament as a whole where remaining player could "win" tournament without needing to "win" the final match due to default of the other player.
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