Forex Trading

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megarain
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Have been following this chap .. his trades are listed .. and have placed trades, on any trades which are under-water, more than 12 pips.

Low stakes, but, its been a winning strat.

http://www.forexfactory.com/kevler#acct ... orer.77961
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marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Looking at his equity curve I suspect he does a martingale.
Bluesky
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He must be counting his profits instead of posting messages, only 12 posts in nearly 10 years!
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megarain
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needs more fingers .. gotta say, his graph looks amazing ..
andyfuller
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Social trading is growing and I like the idea of it and the profit share model. It is a bit like tipsters in horse racing just a slightly different model but also much more open and possible to actually get the prices suggested which is not normally the case with tipsters in racing.

There are quite a few platforms that offer it and I suspect the bigger players will get into it in due course such as IG.

David Jones has done a few webinars on it and is affiliated with Ayondo, his links are affiliate links if you look at the URL's for them.

You can read the article he has done on it and the videos via his site: http://www.jonesthemarkets.com/blog/social-trading

He also tweets when he is doing a webinar about it.

The performances are interesting to look at:

https://www.ayondo.com/en/social/follow ... op-trader/

Just remember past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
xitian
Posts: 457
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

So on these systems are people verified that they've actually put money on their trades? Or can they just do that old trick of having 100 different accounts and only publicly promote the one which has fortunately had 10,000% returns?

Or even if they have to put money on it, can't they just go 50 long, 50 short on different accounts, then repeat until one of the accounts has 10 wins in a row (but be net 0 before fees across all accounts).
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marksmeets302
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Maybe I'm missing something but don't get why you would want to piggyback on this guys trades? He has nice profits, only to blow 30% of his money away in a single trade, then starts over again.
andyfuller
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xitian wrote:So on these systems are people verified that they've actually put money on their trades? Or can they just do that old trick of having 100 different accounts and only publicly promote the one which has fortunately had 10,000% returns?

Or even if they have to put money on it, can't they just go 50 long, 50 short on different accounts, then repeat until one of the accounts has 10 wins in a row (but be net 0 before fees across all accounts).
You can have people who trade in practice mode and people who trade with actual money. You should be able to see which are people in practice mode and which are in real mode.

As far as I have seen to date you can't do a mixture of both real and practice trades within the one profile.

There is nothing to stop you having multiple accounts as far as I am aware. But you would go poor quite quickly with no real benefit as you would be losing the spread/fee on each trade which would soon add up.

Also as you aren't selling a system but looking to profit share in the long term you don't have a defined end number of trades. For example the common racing scam is to do say 6 races and predict the winner of each race but need to cover every outcome then get everyone to lump on the 7th or pay you a fee to get the 7th tip.

When looking over months/years of trades and with no defined end point to sell a system etc you would need a hell of a lot of accounts and with no defined end you could run out of accounts.

I doubt it would be worth the effort if it was possible - also I don't see how you would make anything from it.

marksmeets302 wrote:Maybe I'm missing something but don't get why you would want to piggyback on this guys trades? He has nice profits, only to blow 30% of his money away in a single trade, then starts over again.
I don't know about the specific person as I haven't looked at him. But the idea is not much different than paying a fund manager to manage your money or anyone else for that matter.

Now the argument of whether actively managed money out performs passively managed money is a whole debate in itself but the idea of following other people in their trades has been around for decades. This is just another version of it.

For those people wanting to let others follow them, there is the advantage of the profit share you get along with various other potential benefits be it being able to form effectively your own fund but without all the issues that actually trying to create a fund involves, be it the 'stardom' you get as being a top trader and the potential avenues that could open up for you that normally are unlikely to etc etc.

I like the concept, as you can tell, yes it does have its drawbacks but I like the concept - when I was trading sports I had no end of people offer me money to trade on their behalf on a profit share but as you know the sports markets aren't scaleable so had to turn it down, financial markets are however, and this concept is quite open and honest.

It would have been great to have something like it in sports markets but due to the issue with scale it never will happen - it would have been interesting to have seen the reality v some of the fiction that is posted on the internet.

There were a few such things in the early days I remember but they got ruined when people started to fake PnL's etc.
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megarain
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Maybe I'm missing something but don't get why you would want to piggyback on this guys trades? He has nice profits, only to blow 30% of his money away in a single trade, then starts over again.
I have better mental stops ..

Am a firm believer, a lot of the difference between a winning trader, and a losing one, is just mental approach.

I have started social tipping, to see how it pans out. Certain sports are definately scaleable .. £46m just traded on the 5 day test .. Pak v Windies .. I personally traded 5x, but, could have easily traded 20x, with little slippage.

As I said in another thread .. the software allows automatic input, from the tipster .. which, is definately something I think BA should consider.
andyfuller
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megarain wrote:Am a firm believer, a lot of the difference between a winning trader, and a losing one, is just mental approach.
+1
megarain wrote:I have started social tipping, to see how it pans out. Certain sports are definately scaleable .. £46m just traded on the 5 day test .. Pak v Windies .. I personally traded 5x, but, could have easily traded 20x, with little slippage.
In terms of financial markets though that is still relatively unscaleable - for example imagine if you had 1000 people following your trades it would soon become an issue. One of the beauties of financial markets is that you are very unlikely to ever outgrow the market.
megarain wrote:As I said in another thread .. the software allows automatic input, from the tipster .. which, is definately something I think BA should consider.
Do you mean by this the ability for your trades as a follower to be placed automatically in line with the tipster? Or is it something else?
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Euler
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andyfuller wrote:It would have been great to have something like it in sports markets but due to the issue with scale it never will happen - it would have been interesting to have seen the reality v some of the fiction that is posted on the internet.
My main problem nowadays is getting a position in and out of the market without disrupting the market it and it seems easier than ever for that to happen. So I can't see how it would work in sports markets.

As you also mention, the market is small but flattered by people pretending to be something they are not which makes it look larger than it is. Thanks to this I still get a lot of stick despite actually being a large participant whom people mistake me for one of those guys! #frustrating
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megarain
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Do you mean by this the ability for your trades as a follower to be placed automatically in line with the tipster? Or is it something else?
I haven't tried, but think the process is :

Tipster has his bet on the software.

Lists tip on site.

Tips get sent to followers, as an input file.

Software automatically picks it up, and places trade, with your criteria (so, if he makes it a 2 point bet, it allocates funds accordingly )

For in-play mkts, it might be tricky - but, pre, can't really see many issues.
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Euler
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megarain wrote:Software automatically picks it up, and places trade, with your criteria (so, if he makes it a 2 point bet, it allocates funds accordingly )

For in-play mkts, it might be tricky - but, pre, can't really see many issues.
Straight tips would work, but it may just be survivors that bubble to the top of the lists.
xitian
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Regarding scalability of sports vs financials, I think it depends what markets you're talking about. I effectively run statistical arbitrage on sports, and the closest thing there is in financial markets would be trading shares. i.e. Large numbers of (reasonably) independent runners which I can place many different bets on to create a consistent return.

However with shares, I think the scalability is debatable at medium frequency or lower (unless you start using more complex order placement algorithms). It's not uncommon to see market makers quoting Apple shares with a volume of 200 shares. They basically want to see you from a mile away if you want to place any sort of decent sized trade.

However, if you're talking something like forex or index futures then sure, the volume is likely massive. But my view is that the more you scale in one specific instrument (rather than scaling by diversification) the more risk you're taking. So with forex or futures, sure you can get a huge absolute return especially if you leverage, but you can also have huge risk.

Sports will still be the only market where I can generate over 1000% return in 1 year with close to zero risk.

I might change my opinion one day, of course. But that's just my current feeling. I've still yet to pick marksmeets' brain about it. I get the impression he probably has some ideas to alleviate some of my concerns. Andy, perhaps you have some ideas as well? I'm basically about talking ways to trade, effectively unmanaged (in my case automated, rule based), which is what I do with sports right now.
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

megarain wrote: I haven't tried, but think the process is :

Tipster has his bet on the software.

Lists tip on site.

Tips get sent to followers, as an input file.

Software automatically picks it up, and places trade, with your criteria (so, if he makes it a 2 point bet, it allocates funds accordingly )

For in-play mkts, it might be tricky - but, pre, can't really see many issues.
Sorry I miss read your original post and thought you were talking about financials and not sports. I didn't realise this was becoming available in sports trading.
xitian wrote:Regarding scalability of sports vs financials, I think it depends what markets you're talking about.
I think that is a fair comment - I was generalising which I shouldn't have done so, many financial markets you can still run into issue with scale.
xitian wrote:Andy, perhaps you have some ideas as well? I'm basically about talking ways to trade, effectively unmanaged (in my case automated, rule based), which is what I do with sports right now.
I couldn't help you with regards to automation - it is one area I have never looked into be it sports or financials - I wish I had back in the day on sports markets as even with the PC it would have been worth carrying on with getting 40% as opposed to having 100% of nothing.
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