Euler wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:09 amI also agree. You end up in an arms race that you can't possibly win.
Somebody will always be slightly ahead of you.
For example, it's a rumoured that the first-ever Betfair millionaire was an actually an SIS engineer.
Some of the big syndicates are stuffed full of ex-Betfair guys, so you would think they know every trick in the book. That's possibly where they are making their money and possibly one of the reasons that the PC exists?
Skill is an underrated skill, people are always looking for a shortcut. As for timing in stock markets, your retail trader hasn't a chance.
I don't think there is any "possibly" about it Peter, I was one of the very first people to defend the PC when everyone was up in arms because what you can't have is large traders basically acting like huge black holes on an exchange eco-system given how illiquid it is compared to financial markets (the exchange is a financial market but you know what I mean). Have BF exploited that situation??? You will probably know that better than me.
If they hadn't brought it in, I think it could easily have died. Basically the evolution of Betfair has roughly mimicked the financial markets just further down the road. You are spot on with your "timing" comment...retail has to be non-directional to cope and trading further out than the spread given the co-location advantage they probably have and everything else.