Crypto currency trading

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jimibt
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as one of those *types* that seems to think everything can be reduced to an algo, i have to say, (and apologies, i know this is a football topic!! -bear with me) i've been blown away recently by my 18 year old son. he was never an academic achiever, but always super smart. in the past 5-6 weeks, he's got involved in the shady world of crypto... let the story unfold...

he started off at the beginning of april by investing his *money* gained from being part of a government scheme that exisited for about 4 years in the mid nougties which invested £500 into an account to help *every* child in the UK... On turning 18, he was able to cash out a tidy sum of £1500 (isH). Now, rather than being a typical teenager (such as I would have been), he cast his eye across the cryto markets. his 1st bait with his £1.5k was this one:

https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x8076c74c5e ... b8c8add8d3

he literally made 7 times his stake inside 2 weeks from that (using pancake swap). he then moved onto the wider ecosystems of Binanece and KuCoin and last week put 70% of his pot into $TRIAS on KuCoin (i have to admit, on his recommendation, I also placed a lump last saturday - more to follow on that!!).

https://trade.kucoin.com/TRIAS-BTC
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/trias-token/

As we speak today, he is now sitting on a grand total of £27-30k + for literally 5 weeks work.. it just makes me realise that KIDS these days actually have a very different perspective on what we would consider *further education*... his takings in the past 6 weeks eclipse pretty much anything I've ever done, even in my peak.

as for my foray, under his guidence... I put £5k into the mix on the 2nd May and panicked (well, was concerned!) all week as it dropped by the odd percent each day. finally, last night, it doubled in value and I cashed out for £10k - not bad I thought. Of course, it then carried on gaining all day today and had i been more patient, I'd have been sitting on £20k - live an LEARN.

the 1st takeaway was -remember the *training* - stay tight and let it ride. However, in a market that is pretty much dominated by a super smart new generation, i had no clue as to hold/buy/sell.

So, as for algos, yes in terms of bot creation, but in terms of gut instinct and pure balls, I'd have to say, those parameters are still elusive to me...

as an aside, i actually recommend some research into TRIAS - imho, they could potentially fill the gap between pure crypto and financial security services within that space -not an inconsidereable playground!
Last edited by jimibt on Sun May 09, 2021 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek27
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Just as well you didn't teach him about matched betting and e-wallets. :D
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jimibt
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 9:37 pm
Just as well you didn't teach him about matched betting and e-wallets. :D
my matched betting days were definitely rocket fuelled, but never (even on a good [illegal] day), obscenely profitable.

tbh -i'm seeing these kids making sums that are beyond my comprehension (for what it is and what skills have been acquired). but at the same time, am amazed at their ability to hold when the trends are buckling. in short, we may be getting back to where *old greed is the new greed* :D

[edit] - just remebered the SAGE advice given by said 18 year old. "don't be worried about buying into a rising trend, be more concerned about selling into it falling" - fck me -lol
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johnsheppard
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jimibt wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 9:45 pm
tbh -i'm seeing these kids making sums that are beyond my comprehension (for what it is and what skills have been acquired). but at the same time, am amazed at their ability to hold when the trends are buckling. in short, we may be getting back to where *old greed is the new greed* :D

[edit] - just remebered the SAGE advice given by said 18 year old. "don't be worried about buying into a rising trend, be more concerned about selling into it falling" - fck me -lol
Hello there, that advice made me think (so for that it's going into my quote collection), but thinking about my own behaviours... I tend to worry all the time :) For example, my default logic is: If it's going up, I get concerned that the crowd are a bunch of idiots. If it's going down, I get concerned that the crowd know something that I don't.... it' is a bit of a problematic stance and a confidence issue for me.

but...Why is your son's advice sage though? Is it just based on the mindset of the status quo's default thinking is in reverse? i.e. Mostly we are sheep...probably especially so with crypto...

If I was to think really rationally about it, I would say there's no point in worrying at all...analysis and trusting one's judgement is all one should be concerned about...
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Derek27
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If your 18-year-old son is living at home, that might partly explain why there's less pressure on him, pressure than some of us would feel. :)
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Euler
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Probably deserves a separate thread? It may be worth starting a crypto trading thread and I can merge the posts on there?

Where are at on Crypto reminds me of bubbles in the past. It seems impossible to lose money on the way up, but when the panic set it's things can go tits up super quick as everybody heads for the door.
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xtrader16
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Due to the pandenic and money printing on a scale never seen before all markets, including crypto, are on an upwards march. I mean that printed money isnt coming backing in to the working class economy. It is like having a one arm bandit that pays out on every spin because there is a man behind it filling it up all day. Wait until your son hits a downward turn as he and the markets inevitably will (good on him by the way) and see what happens then.

Crypto, especially Bitcoin, is just something invented by the C.I.A in order to wash dirty money that can be laundered into the mainstram economy without anybody knowing. Just a giant money laundering scam the worlds Governements/Drug Dealers can get involved in.

Geo Political issues look like they are reaching a bottleneck very soon and this will crash all markets at the same time. As always cover your risk and ensure you have enough food stocked.
Last edited by xtrader16 on Mon May 10, 2021 11:02 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Kai
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Euler wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 10:38 am
Probably deserves a separate thread? It may be worth starting a crypto trading thread and I can merge the posts on there?
Absolutely deserving of a separate thread! Love these types of stories :)
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Kai
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jimibt wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 9:45 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 9:37 pm
Just as well you didn't teach him about matched betting and e-wallets. :D
my matched betting days were definitely rocket fuelled, but never (even on a good [illegal] day), obscenely profitable.

tbh -i'm seeing these kids making sums that are beyond my comprehension (for what it is and what skills have been acquired). but at the same time, am amazed at their ability to hold when the trends are buckling. in short, we may be getting back to where *old greed is the new greed* :D

[edit] - just remebered the SAGE advice given by said 18 year old. "don't be worried about buying into a rising trend, be more concerned about selling into it falling" - fck me -lol
You have to nurture this natural talent Jimbo :mrgreen: Must be a parenting nightmare though, not knowing whether to get in the way or no!

Hopefully the lessons won't be too painful for him when they come :) But I would absolutely try to keep an open mind overall, youngsters can sometimes impress and they can get their "alternative education" from all types of sources, I remember seeing a few proper trading prodigies and wunderkinds on Youtube or somewhere that are basically already set for life, and they're only getting started!

Things really do escalate fast in various markets of today, so the learning must get accelerated as well, anything is possible really, even a newbie investor can blow up almost overnight if he gets it right just once. Younger people are starting to get drawn to this like moths to flames!
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Morbius
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Euler wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 10:38 am
Probably deserves a separate thread? It may be worth starting a crypto trading thread and I can merge the posts on there?

Where are at on Crypto reminds me of bubbles in the past. It seems impossible to lose money on the way up, but when the panic set it's things can go tits up super quick as everybody heads for the door.

+1

I actually could have put +100. Stories involving money made are always nice but he needs to learn and learn fast if he wants to keep it long term. All financial markets are deeply speculative and especially over shorter time frames. An old stock market adage is "everybody makes money in a bull market".

So getting lucky is the norm in any financial market and if this didnt happen then people wouldn't speculate. Read "Market Wizards" and its sequel "The New Market Wizards" to see of traders who initially got lucky and then blew the lot through not fully understanding what they were dealing with.

At the end of the day it's a binary outcome....markets either go up or down but buying on the way up in a bull market can seem like printing money but as Pete says... When the market turns it can turn rapidly and hard and people get hurt because of the surplus buyers to sellers. Remember some very sharp money is taking the other side of your opinion.

I hate to be a doomsayer and I wish him all the best but you don't just rock up into a financial market and hand out lessons to professionals. However there is nothing wrong in identifying a potential bubble and trying to ride it. People have got rich that way and the dot com bubble was an example but they aren't called bubbles for nothing. I'm sure you're advising him well and smart sensible speculation can be rewarding... Just be careful but I wish your son well.
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Morbius
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As an add on to my last post... My MO has always been slow and steady and compounding of wealth over time. This is a better way to attain wealth with less risk. For example doubling £100 in a month may seem trivial but to double your bankroll every month for a year would turn 100 quid into 400k in 12 months.

But wealth can be attained differently hence why so many people did well trading forex with huge leverage but a damn site more blew up. Speculating well can often be a way to get wealthy without doing the leg work to understand the markets but managing larger sums of money over time requires other skills.

However younger people cannot be underestimated. They have knowledge in areas where older people don't and as is often the case knowing too much can sometimes be a handicap. A great little book to read on speculation is "The Zurich Axioms"... Clever fellows those Swiss ;)
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jimibt
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Morbius wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 1:48 pm
However younger people cannot be underestimated. They have knowledge in areas where older people don't and as is often the case knowing too much can sometimes be a handicap. A great little book to read on speculation is "The Zurich Axioms"... Clever fellows those Swiss ;)
i'll have a look at that (Y).

re young minds etc. i've come to the conclusion that there is a different wiring going on in the younger kids brains these days. no doubt fed by the likes of tiktok etc, they tend to consume JUST ENOUGH info to get the job done and done as quickly and efficiently as possible. i of course would refer to it as skimping on detail - but i'm definitely old SK00L in that respect. :D

and i definitely agree about buying into a bull market, it can seem TOO easy and potentially leave you niaive to the nuances of give and TAKE!!

anyway, it's an amusing little story to watch unfold.
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Kai
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jimibt wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 3:11 pm
no doubt fed by the likes of tiktok etc, they tend to consume JUST ENOUGH info to get the job done and done as quickly and efficiently as possible.
Don't knock lazy people, these are some of the most efficient individuals ever! :lol: I say this as a bit of an Expert Procrastinator myself :D

It always reminds me of something Bill Gates once said!

Image
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Morbius
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jimibt wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 3:11 pm
Morbius wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 1:48 pm
However younger people cannot be underestimated. They have knowledge in areas where older people don't and as is often the case knowing too much can sometimes be a handicap. A great little book to read on speculation is "The Zurich Axioms"... Clever fellows those Swiss ;)
i'll have a look at that (Y).

re young minds etc. i've come to the conclusion that there is a different wiring going on in the younger kids brains these days. no doubt fed by the likes of tiktok etc, they tend to consume JUST ENOUGH info to get the job done and done as quickly and efficiently as possible. i of course would refer to it as skimping on detail - but i'm definitely old SK00L in that respect. :D

and i definitely agree about buying into a bull market, it can seem TOO easy and potentially leave you niaive to the nuances of give and TAKE!!

anyway, it's an amusing little story to watch unfold.

Just one last thing as I don't want to be told off for dragging a thread off topic :D

I just read my posts back and they did sound a tad negative and I didn't mean them to be. There is a huge misconception with speculating that it's just wild gambling in disguise. Quite often it is but sometimes if done with common sense you really can return huge sums quickly even with little outlay.

In FX before ESMA regulatory changes for example some people were spinning up tiny sums of money like 2k for example into serious six figure sums using leverage of 1:100 upto 1:500.

If you have the means to simply buy back in then this would work similarly to a re-buy poker tournament in nature. Using such huge leverage with little understanding of how it worked with your last 2k would be stupidity beyond stupidity but with the right knowledge then speculating like this could reap huge rewards if done with common sense.

Some years ago I did a £100k challenge for 888poker where I started with £100 as a promotional strategy and then promoted it in poker magazines merely to show that small sums could be compounded and that you didn't need to be a top class player to do it. . So spinning up can be the right thing to do for many people who either don't want to risk huge sums to start with or don't have the patience to grind small returns at the outset.

As for what Kai said in his last post... Unfortunately the smarter we become then other problems manifest. One being that we inadvertently get bogged down with more knowledge which most of it is crap. Secondly we have the tendency to over complicate and search for intricate solutions. Game theory teaches us that the end result is nearly always less complex than you imagined it to be when you became "smart enough" to know more than the novices :)

"Everything should be made as simple as possible but not more so". Einstein said that and I think he may have been pretty smart from what I've read :D
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decomez6
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jimibt wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 9:19 pm
i've been blown away recently by my 18 year old son. he was never an academic achiever, but always super smart. in the past 5-6 weeks, he's got involved in the shady world of crypto... let the story unfold...

he started off at the beginning of april by investing his *money* gained from being part of a government scheme that exisited for about 4 years in the mid nougties which invested £500 into an account to help *every* child in the UK... On turning 18, he was able to cash out a tidy sum of £1500 (isH). Now, rather than being a typical teenager (such as I would have been), he cast his eye across the cryto markets. his 1st bait with his £1.5k was this one:


As we speak today, he is now sitting on a grand total of £27-30k + for literally 5 weeks work.. it just makes me realise that KIDS these days actually have a very different perspective on what we would consider *further education*... his takings in the past 6 weeks eclipse pretty much anything I've ever done, even in my peak.

the 1st takeaway was -remember the *training* - stay tight and let it ride. However, in a market that is pretty much dominated by a super smart new generation, i had no clue as to hold/buy/sell.

So, as for algos, yes in terms of bot creation, but in terms of gut instinct and pure balls, I'd have to say, those parameters are still elusive to me...inconsidereable playground!
An apple falls not far away from the tree and judging from your contributions in many a topics to the forum ,it comes as no surprise ,WELLdone!! to the YOUNG one :) :mrgreen: look at what isaac newton did with an apple(( gravity ) ).
during the lockdown was home schooling my 15 year old GCSE maths, on the topic of Venn diagrams , hcf & Lcm stuff, then something clicked and he noticed a similarity between what i was saying and what he knows i do on the bet angel screen, he could see a correlation that i barely see.(i tried it out but obviously didnt work) i was nevertheless impreessed that he finds interest ideas worthwhile.
things are always in the dark until a bright mind shines a light on it.your son could be on to something, atleast you have not to worry about university debt trap, he might pay for it himself :shock:
i personally think trading could be much easier , just like a binary decision but we all make it complex by concentrating on the random results on a normal distribution curve.
who knows , may be it will take the young brains to look at a screen and re write the rules " Daaad what have you been doing ? this is easy just watch this ,follow that ,and watch your P&L grow. A>B>C :lol: .
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