Gold

[andyfuller]

Please tell me you're pulling my leg! With greatest respect, that's the kind of comment I'd expect from a newbie!

Every day on Betfair, you must have losing trades. So, I'd be willing to bet, does Peter. A losing trade doesn't mean you did anything wrong - it's a reflection of the uncertain world we live in!

I doubt you'll find a successful trader in the world with a 100% strike rate!

No not pulling your leg. Explain to me how you can be correct on that specific trade if you lost? Not over x number of trades, but that specific trade that lost money.

If the probabilities are on your side in the long term you will be correct more than you are wrong but that doesn't mean you were correct in every trade, if a trade costs you money you must have got something wrong.

Yes everyday I have losing trades, I enter those trades thinking I am going to be correct but also knowing that sometimes I will be incorrect. I take responsibility for my loss, I got it wrong, no one else, not the market not anyone but me.

Anyway, we aren't going to agree, so back to gold....

[Iron]

Andy

You wrote that 'long term I was not right as I called my trade incorrectly'.

If you were trading with an edge, then long term you were right, in the sense of making trades that are likely to be profitable overall. As for calling a trade incorrectly, if your methodology was correct, then in a sense you called the trade correctly...

BTW, you seem to be equating getting most of your trades right with being profitable. Maybe that's the case with the way you trade on Betfair (and I don't mean that disparagingly), but you can have a 90% strike rate and lose money long-term, and a 10% strike rate and make money long-term. Most trend followers have a strike rate below 50%, but would probably disagree with the inference that they are wrong most of the time... They would say that they are neither right nor wrong, as the only thing they predict is that they have a long-term edge.

Jeff

[superfrank]

from a fundamental point of view I'm still very bullish on gold and silver (but I guess you'd expect me to say that!).

I don't take too much notice of the charts on either metal because they are highly manipulated (and there's a saying, "don't bet against the FED"). you only need to see the timing of the margin increases to know that.

central bankers hate gold rising in price because it makes them look bad. sooner or later all this monetising of debt is going to be reflected in better stores of value than government debt and paper.

bonds are the biggest bubble and the prices of US and UK bonds are only kept high because the FED and the BoE are buying. market manipulation always fails in the end and I fail to see why this time will be any different.

The Gold Price Took a Beating Today, Down 4.6%, Gold and Silver Remain in a Bull Market
http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice ... wn-46.html

[Iron]

Gordon Brown's $22.5 billion blunder - http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/go ... gold-trade

[superfrank]

Gold, Inflation, Paul Krugman Challenge - Peter Schiff
http://www.europac.net/media/video_blog ... _challenge

[superfrank]

I wonder whether the numbskulls on CNBC can look at the chart below and figure out why gold is up ten years in a row. The national debt reaching $20 trillion by 2015 is a given.

2011 - Catch-22 Year In Review
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos ... ear-review

[superfrank]

Gartman Flip Flops Again, Now Sees Bull Market For Gold: Time To Sell Everything?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gartman-f ... everything

[andyfuller]

The bubble may have come to an end...

Jeff

The long term trend is still well in tact though isn't it so as a Trend Follower would you not be looking to follow that?

Keep buying the dips.

Are you buying in these current dips? My personal view for the very little it is worth and from a complete lack of knowledge base would be to buy the dips = queue massive dive

I said earlier I would be buying now. From the chart view point I think being long has a higher probabilty of a successful outcome than being short, I would be putting in a stop around 1530 based off the low from the end of September of 1540, around 1470 looks like it could provide a good resistance level having held from around mid-april to end of July at that level. But I would guess having a stop that far off would be too wide?

Now that Christmas is out of the way and I am back home and with todays racing not looking worth the effort I thought I would catch up on the IG weekly webinar and our predictions for Gold.

Gold went down and briefly went under 1,525 trading at 1,522 on the intra day chart but on the daily chart hasn't closed much below 1,550 since we made our predictions. It is currently at 1,624 so has basically stood still.

There was some Bullish Divergence if using a 10 RSI just before the end of the year.

So the price is where it was when we made our predictions, about 1,627 (now 1,624) has been as low as 1,522 for a moment but not closed below 1,550.

So for now I am going to hold my Long position.

Any change/comment from anyone else?

P.S. When I get chance I am going to start posting a bit more in the next few months with potential trades as I start to play around more with financials, all part of the learning curve and hopefully get some more discussion/learning going. No doubt I will get plenty wrong but I would sooner that as you learn more from your mistakes imo.

But for the time being one share I have kept an eye on for some time is M&S (MKS) which seems to be in a trading range since September of between 300p and 337p roughly. So if it comes down to near 300p again I would be looking at buying....

[Iron]

If I traded fundamentals, I'd possibly go long on crude oil.

Tensions are high between Iran and the West, with Iran threatending to block the Strait of Hormuz (and given their previous breaches of international law, I wouldn't put it past them!). If that happens, oil could skyrocket.

Also, continuing QE can only contribute to commodity price rises generally.

Jeff

[superfrank]

am very bullish on gold for this year.

not so sure about crude - the middle east tension seems to be priced in.

Want to Put Iran Out of Business? Here's How
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos ... -heres-how

[Iron]

The banking liquidity crisis would make be sceptical of gold, as it may mean that financial institutions are more interested in selling gold to free up liquidity than in buying more gold.

Jeff

[superfrank]

The banking liquidity crisis would make be sceptical of gold, as it may mean that financial institutions are more interested in selling gold to free up liquidity than in buying more gold.

Jeff

they haven't got any gold.

[Iron]

Are you sure? I'd be surprised if the investment arms of retail banks don't hold lots of gold reserves.

The central banks certainly do, and IMHO it's quite possible lots of those reserves will be liquidated this year to fund bail-outs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

Jeff

they haven't got any gold.

[superfrank]

investment banks trade gold futures but there's no evidence they are long atm. many have turned bearish on some technical rubbish but the fundamentals are stronger than ever.

non-western central banks are buying gold because they know that a dollar collapse is possibility and that don't want all their hard work invested in worthless paper should the worst case happen. they will keep buying as the debts of the west continue to expand and as they dilute their currencies with money printing. only a sea change in western policy (reflation) to the debt crisis would change the fundamentals and the chance of that is slim to none.

[Iron]

The ECB needs hundreds of billions of dollars for future bail-outs. It will borrow some of the money, but there will still be a huge shortfall. Selling gold and printing money are just about the only solutions I can think of for raising the kind of money they'll need (and we all know what Frau Merkel thinks of the printing money option! ).

Jeff