BITCOIN as an alternative to regular currency

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
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PDC
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Euler wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:42 pm
I always sell into strength. The future is inheritably uncertain so why not sell when everybody wants to buy. ;)
Glad to hear you took your chips off the table.

The problem with that is timing it though and figuring out when in the strength is the time to sell as you can risk leaving a lot of chips behind.

Take Amazon for example, 2008 it was around $80 a share, 2 years later it had doubled in value to $160. Great everyone is buying and it is really strong, the contrarian is selling into the strength and you pat yourself on the back for a double bagger. But hold on, the price keeps going up, contrarian says not to buy into the strength, maybe even short it, but it keeps going up, still the contrarian says no, and it keeps going up and keeps going up and hits a high of around $2,000!

Yes you got the 2 bagger and doubled your money but by being a contrarian and selling out into the strength you miss out on a 25 bagger.

Have you been selling out of your Berkshire Hathaway, selling into the strength?
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Euler
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I account managed amazon when they were about to go bust and one of the guys sold his 250,000 shares. That's bad timing.

True investment isn't about timing to be honest, it's about placing a price on a company, seeing a yield and adding or trimming positions based on that. My play on Nvidia was all about bitcoin so hadn't really expected to be holding it forever.
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PDC
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Euler wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:54 am
I account managed amazon when they were about to go bust and one of the guys sold his 250,000 shares. That's bad timing.

True investment isn't about timing to be honest, it's about placing a price on a company, seeing a yield and adding or trimming positions based on that. My play on Nvidia was all about bitcoin so hadn't really expected to be holding it forever.
Now that is what you call bad timing! He must be sick to his stomach everyday, wouldn't fancy being the delivery driver knocking to see if he can take in his neighbours Amazon parcels :lol:

I don't see much point in selling out like he did, I very rarely sell anything, as companies go down they become so irrelevant to the overall portfolio it just isn't worth it and better to hold on for an Amazon or a Netflix type situation.

You don't need many of them in your life time to make up for all of the losers.

I will assume by not answering the Berkshire question you aren't quite the contrarian you say you are ;) I wouldn't sell either.

Bitcoin is taking another hammering today, nearly saw the $4,000 level go earlier though rebounding a bit now.
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Euler
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Because Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend you are effectively handing your return over to the management to invest. I'm happy for that to continue.
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PDC
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Euler wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:17 am
Because Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend you are effectively handing your return over to the management to invest. I'm happy for that to continue.
Yes as am I, I like the ~$15 billion growth in banking positions they took in the last quarter. Also with the current sell offs I am sure they are adding to that Apple position.

Sorry for taking the thread off topic but do you invest in residential property much? For me the government has and is making it so much harder I am thinking about exiting entirely.
CallumPerry
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Interested to know trader's thoughts on Ripple, known as xrp. Had a little look but still have quite basic knowledge, a child's (who I tutor once a week) father has recently put a few hundred down with some guys at work for an investment.

Any worth short/mid/long term in your opinion?
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Dallas
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PDC wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:29 am

Sorry for taking the thread off topic but do you invest in residential property much? For me the government has and is making it so much harder I am thinking about exiting entirely.
Might be worth starting a new thread for this, if its the new tax relief being phased in your referring to I think it's going to hit a few ppl hard and I'm already considering what options are best
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Euler
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I wonder who bought in at the top of these cryptocurrencies?

While Bitcoin has plummeted to roughly $4k, Ethereum is off nearly 92% from its peak.
ec0n0mist
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There is of course the plain retail FOMO but incidentally there were also a few hedge funds that stacked up heavily OTC at hefty premiums from $8k all the way to the top. Grayscale comes to mind for example, allegedly paid 100% premium, 40k when bitcoin hit ATH ($19,891). I know, madness right? Lol! I think they were most likely anticipating a third wave up and wanted to front-run it. As the saying goes; liquidity is an illusion. It's always there when you don't need it but rarely there when you do. I believe the opposite true also.

I wonder how these funds are going to treat their positions going forward. I.e. will they treat BTC like any other risk asset and liquidate it first as we continue to see equities correct globally and book a 90% loss (possibly more if the $4k double bottom doesn't hold), or do they simply HODL along with the trapped retail bulls?
Last edited by ec0n0mist on Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ec0n0mist
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CallumPerry wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:28 pm
Interested to know trader's thoughts on Ripple, known as xrp. Had a little look but still have quite basic knowledge, a child's (who I tutor once a week) father has recently put a few hundred down with some guys at work for an investment.

Any worth short/mid/long term in your opinion?
As a trader I like XRP. TA works quite well on it (even on smaller time frames i.e.3-30 mins), as do most large caps. From a consumer's POV, I'm philosophically against everything Ripple stands for. It still boggles the mind as to why their community is growing as fast as it is. BTW, Ripple is the technology company, XRP is the token (cryptocurrency). They are not the same thing in spite of what most will have you believe. Secondly, Ripple's success does not depend on XRP's survival. Even if it did, why would XRP's price need to go up for it to work? It doesn't. XRP is a shit-coin through and through. [That's not to say money can't be made. However, 'Investment' or 'HODL' approach is not a strategy I'd recommend when it comes to XRP].

It's been rumoured for some time now, that banks are planning to turn Ripple into a segmented global network, essentially substituting SWIFT to an extent. This hasn't happened yet. In fact, a number of banks have outright declined such claims.
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