When to know if it’s time to quit...

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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Trader724
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What I noticed from the start is that trading is not for scared people. I throw thousands in all directions if I know that in the long run the result will be positive and what happens in every trade does not interest me. I'm not upset after 10 losses in a row or a 30% drawdown because I know I'll make more than I lost. It's true, it's not easy to think like that, but you have to. The sooner the better.
greenmark
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:33 am
Mr.Teeny wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:00 pm
Best way to stop chasing and blowing banks etc is to start winning. It’s a lot easier to remain disciplined and to stick to your strategy/ plan if you are winning.
Catch-22 init. You only become relaxed about losing when you know you'll get it back, but you won't get it back until you become relaxed about losing.

How about keeping a seperate tally of losses you know were your fault and those where you did your best but it just didn't work out? If the second number isn't too bad then it might give you the strength to reduce the first. But if it's crap then you're wasting your time working on 'you' and just being deluded by the "i'd be great if I didn't keep losing" fallacy.

Have you got anyone who could sit and watch you trade? Being a dick on your own is a lot easier than being a dick when someone is watching and you're talking them through it. :oops:
Quite possibly the most sage thing I've read on this forum. In IT (where I was, anyway) , it's called peer review. And its simply amazing how one's faulty assumptions are exposed when you have to describe your thinking face-to-face. Realization of your error happens even before you say the words. Then it's a Doh moment.
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Kai
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rik wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:26 pm
you would think the hard part is judging whether a price is too high or low
apparently its this discipline nonsense
dont bet if your not at advantage its as simple as that.
i understand if you struggle to learn programming or design some complicated models but only betting to a plan and at advantage is basics and everyone that wants to be serious can do it
90% of people with this issues are just not conifdent in their edge or want it to be bigger so they add some variance hoping to get lucky
I'd have to agree with rik, can't simplify it much more than this. I said many times that for me the key focus should be on the edge itself while the rest should eventually fall into place.

While it's good practice to highlight the biggest mistakes to try and learn off them, it also doesn't help to constantly beat yourself up about every little mistake to torture yourself. A decent edge should allow for some margin of error, you can't fall for the misconception that good traders don't make any mistakes, that's nonsense.

Even the very best striker can't score a hat-trick every match, it's not possible, he won't get enough opportunities and when he does he won't be able to execute on them perfectly every time. Same as trading, like everyone else you have to mostly settle for your optimum performance and that's what you have to raise above the required threshold, through nothing else but practice.
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Kai
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zippus wrote:
Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:10 pm
Now I’m not a greedy man. But I realise my corporate life will come to an end one day and am looking for something to do that will provide a reasonable income from home in the future. However, I have to accept that I’m rubbish at this.

I’ve given myself this year to try to address the above, so any thoughts would be welcome.
When to know if it's time to quit? Ideally never, but only you could answer that one, would depend on your motives among other things.

I see trading as a long-term project and a long-term investment, you're practically building a highly paid skillset that can potentially open many doors so it shouldn't happen overnight, it's very rare that you'll see some reward in the very short-term.

You may see eventual benefits from undertaking this journey even if you're not profitable in the end, but this obviously can't pay your bills. Not only is success not guaranteed here, it's unlikely as well, not for you personally but for every aspiring trader because of the nature of these ever-evolving markets.

"Looking for something to do that will provide a reasonable income from home in the future" may not exactly be the right motive if I'm perfectly honest, you may need more than that.
zippus
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Kai wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:55 pm
zippus wrote:
Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:10 pm
Now I’m not a greedy man. But I realise my corporate life will come to an end one day and am looking for something to do that will provide a reasonable income from home in the future. However, I have to accept that I’m rubbish at this.

I’ve given myself this year to try to address the above, so any thoughts would be welcome.
When to know if it's time to quit? Ideally never, but only you could answer that one, would depend on your motives among other things.

I see trading as a long-term project and a long-term investment, you're practically building a highly paid skillset that can potentially open many doors so it shouldn't happen overnight, it's very rare that you'll see some reward in the very short-term.

You may see eventual benefits from undertaking this journey even if you're not profitable in the end, but this obviously can't pay your bills. Not only is success not guaranteed here, it's unlikely as well, not for you personally but for every aspiring trader because of the nature of these ever-evolving markets.

"Looking for something to do that will provide a reasonable income from home in the future" may not exactly be the right motive if I'm perfectly honest, you may need more than that.
Cheers Kai. I think motivation is a personal thing. I love sports, I love finance, I love analysing data, I love the freedom of working from home. That's motivation enough for me!
stueytrader
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Interesting that this post has not directly been about the question posed, which was when to know if it's time to quit.

Instead, it's been about how to help discipline, including strategies such as reducing stakes.

Both of the above issues are interesting, and also partly related of course.

My own take: I think it's important to ask the first question (is it time to quit?) at some points in any trader's career/life - I know I have done quite a few times (in the darker times for sure). But, amazingly, I still haven't, and I'm very glad I never did, having now reached something of a successful consistency and contentment generally with where I'm at with trading. Choosing to quit (or not) is a serious question though, so maybe it still deserves a better discussion here!

The other question about discipline is of course wide, and oft-discussed. I'd like to comment on the suggestion about reducing stakes. One concern I have had with that in the past is that reducing too heavily can make trading feel meaningless. That is also a dangerous state, that can flick someone into sudden jolts of increasing stakes etc, and we all know how that can end on a bad day.

Just a few thoughts I wanted to add, please feel free to comment on them.
Stu.
stueytrader
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Kai wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:55 pm
zippus wrote:
Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:10 pm
Now I’m not a greedy man. But I realise my corporate life will come to an end one day and am looking for something to do that will provide a reasonable income from home in the future. However, I have to accept that I’m rubbish at this.

I’ve given myself this year to try to address the above, so any thoughts would be welcome.
I see trading as a long-term project and a long-term investment, you're practically building a highly paid skillset that can potentially open many doors so it shouldn't happen overnight, it's very rare that you'll see some reward in the very short-term.

You may see eventual benefits from undertaking this journey even if you're not profitable in the end, but this obviously can't pay your bills. Not only is success not guaranteed here, it's unlikely as well, not for you personally but for every aspiring trader because of the nature of these ever-evolving markets.

"Looking for something to do that will provide a reasonable income from home in the future" may not exactly be the right motive if I'm perfectly honest, you may need more than that.
Great points about motivations Kai, agree with all of that.
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Kai
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stueytrader wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 6:58 pm
Just a few thoughts I wanted to add, please feel free to comment on them.
I guess for most people time to quit is when the reward doesn't match the effort invested, after a reasonably prolonged period obviously.

But if it's a passion project, then you never quit your passion unless it's somehow destructive. You could maybe find other passions to fill that void but trading is rather unique in that aspect.

And if you're doing reasonably well to start with, then no point in quitting if best is yet to come, it would be like cutting a big potential winner short.

As a trader you're supposed to only get better over time and with age, like a certain alcoholic beverage :)
stueytrader
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Kai wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 10:07 pm

I guess for most people time to quit is when the reward doesn't match the effort invested, after a reasonably prolonged period obviously.

And if you're doing reasonably well to start with, then no point in quitting if best is yet to come, it would be like cutting a big potential winner short.
Two good ways to define this question I suppose (or maybe the answer). The issue of how long to endure poor performance is tricky, as many struggle for a relatively long time before actually starting to be successful in this game. Maybe even most do?

So persistence is actually advisable even when you are not achieving - but it should be added to by 'change' IMO. Doing the same thing and hoping for a different result is of course a known failing pattern to avoid. You need to persist while it's difficult, but also change at the same time during this process.
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Kai
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 3:29 pm
Kai wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 10:07 pm

I guess for most people time to quit is when the reward doesn't match the effort invested, after a reasonably prolonged period obviously.

And if you're doing reasonably well to start with, then no point in quitting if best is yet to come, it would be like cutting a big potential winner short.
Two good ways to define this question I suppose (or maybe the answer). The issue of how long to endure poor performance is tricky, as many struggle for a relatively long time before actually starting to be successful in this game. Maybe even most do?

So persistence is actually advisable even when you are not achieving - but it should be added to by 'change' IMO. Doing the same thing and hoping for a different result is of course a known failing pattern to avoid. You need to persist while it's difficult, but also change at the same time during this process.
Very difficult to generalize as it depends on too many factors, but from my interactions with other traders etc off the top of my head I would perhaps say the average length is about 2-3 years for someone to become consistently profitable. But the average quitting time is far far lower from what I have seen.

Needless to say Stuey, there's a big discrepancy between the two.
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