Boom and bust cycle.

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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globi166
Posts: 75
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

MobiusGrey wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:50 pm
globi166 wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:45 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:04 pm

I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.
So as per setting goals/targets for me, this is not an option. The main problem is lack of confidence, also I always feel like I have some sort of aversion towards the market. The moment I put my ladders on.


The thing is I was paying my bills/mortgage in the last 4 years from betting/gambling at online casinos and bookmakers. I didn't have a massive problem with £900-£1200 drawdowns (sure is very unpleasant) simply because I could calculate that I have positive EV beforehand, so I knew I HAVE TO make a profit in the long run (and that was the case).
Now, most of the loopholes in casinos are patched, bookies restricted/closed down my accounts, so I'm facing the nightmare of full-time employment or trading (I have saved a few quid so I can give a fair trial to trading now for a few months, without any rush).

Another thing is with free bets or bets to qualify I never use to lay them on the exchange, just straight bet as I knew that in the long run I always have positive Ev. Bet your qualifiers on 2.00 to reduce the variance and FB on 7.00-8.00 to get most of the value out of them.

Now with trading, I'm using such small stakes, as it feels like I'm driving in the dark without headlights, as I don't know if my EV is positive beforehand.
I might assume positive EV simply by offering to the market, but then I might fuck something up in the middle or at the end of the trade taking too small profit to big loss etc.
You seem to understand value, have you considered doing something other than pre-race trading? I can't pre-race trade either, I don't have the discipline for it and get too emotionally attached to the trade. I do however make what many would consider a modest income from purely dutching horse races taking value bets.
Well, I would love to but how to calculated value pre-race? There is no way I could model the market with so many variables, and beat BSP on regular basis, I think. I know I could use the Dutching tab in BA and place backs on lay side, I tried that, but end up from time to time with unmatched bets that mess up value.

I have accumulated so much information, knowledge and strategies over the years, but the structure is missing. And it seems like I can't put all those things in a coherent order. Like someone who is trying to build the car, knows most of the parts, the way they work but is unable to put them together to build that damn car.
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rik
Posts: 1533
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

MobiusGrey wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:50 pm
globi166 wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:45 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:04 pm

I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.

So as per setting goals/targets for me, this is not an option. The main problem is lack of confidence, also I always feel like I have some sort of aversion towards the market. The moment I put my ladders on.


The thing is I was paying my bills/mortgage in the last 4 years from betting/gambling at online casinos and bookmakers. I didn't have a massive problem with £900-£1200 drawdowns (sure is very unpleasant) simply because I could calculate that I have positive EV beforehand, so I knew I HAVE TO make a profit in the long run (and that was the case).
Now, most of the loopholes in casinos are patched, bookies restricted/closed down my accounts, so I'm facing the nightmare of full-time employment or trading (I have saved a few quid so I can give a fair trial to trading now for a few months, without any rush).

Another thing is with free bets or bets to qualify I never use to lay them on the exchange, just straight bet as I knew that in the long run I always have positive Ev. Bet your qualifiers on 2.00 to reduce the variance and FB on 7.00-8.00 to get most of the value out of them.

Now with trading, I'm using such small stakes, as it feels like I'm driving in the dark without headlights, as I don't know if my EV is positive beforehand.
I might assume positive EV simply by offering to the market, but then I might fuck something up in the middle or at the end of the trade taking too small profit to big loss etc.
You seem to understand value, have you considered doing something other than pre-race trading? I can't pre-race trade either, I don't have the discipline for it and get too emotionally attached to the trade. I do however make what many would consider a modest income from purely dutching horse races taking value bets.
How many horses to back in a race??
ChoosyAl
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:44 pm

Came here looking for therapy 😊

Similarities to the OP, but none of my ‘rules’ broken - very new to this after matched betting for a while.

4 days on practice mode, consistent wins (34 out of 40?), 2/3 live days with very small stakes & winning consistently (25 out of 30?) then yesterday 13 out of 18 and today 3 out of 7.

Yesterday was a loss because of one runaway that I kept hoping would come back, and today was a loss because losses were 50p and wins were 20p.

I feel utterly gutted, learning all the time, but suddenly feel like I know NOTHING!
ChoosyAl
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:44 pm

If I’d been slower to post for therapy & instead watched the videos linked to throughout this chat - it would have served me better 👍🏻encouraged already.
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Kai
Posts: 3240
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm
Location: Hogwarts, UK

ChoosyAl wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:26 pm
I feel utterly gutted, learning all the time, but suddenly feel like I know NOTHING!
Yep, the brutal thing is when you realize you've made zero progress and back to square one, plus a hefty loss on top of that, but it's normal and we all go through it.

Therapy after only a few days? Long road ahead, you can hardly learn much after a few days anyway, it's a period where you're just collecting the basic market experience and trying to avoid the biggest mistakes, you're not actually expected to make a profit so early :)

Eh, it's a far cry from matched betting, to get a good edge you need to know a market inside and out, and that can take a long time indeed.
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goat68
Posts: 1374
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ChoosyAl wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:14 pm
If I’d been slower to post for therapy & instead watched the videos linked to throughout this chat - it would have served me better 👍🏻encouraged already.
I came from match betting too... i'm over a year on in my journey and only just getting a hint at a turning point towards some sort of success, tough mentally, and no where near as easy as some videos make out!
ChoosyAl
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:44 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:35 pm
ChoosyAl wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:14 pm
If I’d been slower to post for therapy & instead watched the videos linked to throughout this chat - it would have served me better 👍🏻encouraged already.
I came from match betting too... i'm over a year on in my journey and only just getting a hint at a turning point towards some sort of success, tough mentally, and no where near as easy as some videos make out!
You’ve now got to a point where you’re not losing money or you’ve got to a point where it’s starting to pay the mortgage?
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 1374
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ChoosyAl wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 10:12 am
goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:35 pm
ChoosyAl wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:14 pm
If I’d been slower to post for therapy & instead watched the videos linked to throughout this chat - it would have served me better 👍🏻encouraged already.
I came from match betting too... i'm over a year on in my journey and only just getting a hint at a turning point towards some sort of success, tough mentally, and no where near as easy as some videos make out!
You’ve now got to a point where you’re not losing money or you’ve got to a point where it’s starting to pay the mortgage?
Just not losing, at least for 1 month so far anyway!
3virgul14
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 8:28 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--kTNbYgdqQ

All-time best inspirational video for me .

You don't need certain banks, stakes or conditions to make money, just spot value and take your chances, consistently.

Do it over and over as your energy levels let you do it efficiently,

Then you have a winner! Yeah, that's you. :ugeek:
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