And challenging the wisdom of syndicates full of sports nerds and PhDs running ultra complex game modeling software taking any available value in the blink of an eye. (Plus the Peter's and the Dallas's and the riks etc). Imo if I or Tennis Mystic thinks a dropped point should make a player 1.5 and the market is 1.6, then 1.6 is right and I don't have the confidence to dispute that.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:04 pmIf you think it has priced it wrong you are then challenging The Wisdom of a Crowd!
The Crystal Ball method of Trading
- ShaunWhite
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Since when has the crowd had any wisdom?firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:04 pmIf you think it has priced it wrong you are then challenging The Wisdom of a Crowd!
Anyone who trades a variety of markets will come up against some very tight, efficient markets (such as Premiership football), but also some completely bonker markets where horses bounce between 6 and 10. Don't overestimate the wisdom of the crowd.
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Since Peter didn't have a chance to elaborate further in this thread, I guess this below is him indirectly elaborating, I've timestamped the video in the 2 instances where he talks about selling volatility as a concept.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp0uph ... u.be&t=523
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp0uph ... u.be&t=917
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp0uph ... u.be&t=523
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp0uph ... u.be&t=917
- ruthlessimon
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The reason I get confused, is because there's never a mention of "buying low volatility".
If a building's on fire, & no-one cares, that's just as bad, as everyone legging it the moment the fire alarm goes off.
-I'll try rifling through their bags either way
If a building's on fire, & no-one cares, that's just as bad, as everyone legging it the moment the fire alarm goes off.
-I'll try rifling through their bags either way
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A lot of balding people on the panel and audience in those videos, hope that's not a prerequisite to being a succesful trader or a consequence of being oneKai wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:02 pmSince Peter didn't have a chance to elaborate further in this thread, I guess this below is him indirectly elaborating, I've timestamped the video in the 2 instances where he talks about selling volatility as a concept.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp0uph ... u.be&t=523
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp0uph ... u.be&t=917
If that's the case then the presenter stands no chance in the markets, despite all the notes he's been taking No, I think the ability to spot patterns like that is one of the main prerequisites to being successful, even pattern baldness!spreadbetting wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:23 pmA lot of balding people on the panel and audience in those videos, hope that's not a prerequisite to being a succesful trader or a consequence of being one
- ruthlessimon
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Out of interest, why have you not included lethargy? Pre-race, it seems massively prevalent - participants are consistently slow to react
I guess one of the issues (especially when it comes to education); each trader will have a different definition of "trend", "strong", "weak", "chaos" etc.
- TheRiddler
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Pre race markets are just as wonderful as race in play markets
Wonderful, wonderful wonderful.
Wonderful, wonderful wonderful.