Worst downswing

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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Derek27
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Anbell wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:07 am
I never bet out of my lane, but I laid Trump at 1.76 on March 5th. I thought it was incredible value.
I'm not into political betting/trading but it's really hard to put a figure on him. Somehow he manages to fall into a pile of shit and comes out smelling of roses. Hopefully his luck will run out.
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wearthefoxhat
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:37 pm
Anbell wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:07 am
I never bet out of my lane, but I laid Trump at 1.76 on March 5th. I thought it was incredible value.
I'm not into political betting/trading but it's really hard to put a figure on him. Somehow he manages to fall into a pile of shit and comes out smelling of roses. Hopefully his luck will run out.
He might get in again as the voting is this year on Nov 3rd. If it was next year, then time would of probably run out.

Although the economy will go down the tubes and some predict the DJI to drop even more, the electorate will probably prefer to stick with what they know rather than the untested Joe Biden, albeit a reduced majority.
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ShaunWhite
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:37 pm
He might get in again as the voting is this year on Nov 3rd. If it was next year, then time would of probably run out..
There's still time for Trump to catch Covid. But a guy with the most excellent physical health his doctor has ever seen and a remarkable innate understanding of virology the experts are amazed by should sail through it.
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abgespaced
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Everything you guys have said about mean reversion has happened to me.

I am a new trader but I had a great run of laying the draw in cricket when I first started. I was cautious to begin with, risking only $50 per game and letting the bet ride. 90% success rate. Then I read a cricket trading guide and thought I could trade the draw. Ended up staring at an $8k liability. Swallowed the pill and got out for $3.6k loss.

What's really mind-boggling to me was how I got so far into the shit before I realised just how deep in it I was. I thought laying the draw was a safe bet, so kept pouring money into it as it dropped. I drained my personal bank accounts dry to do it.

The beautiful thing was that in the end the game did actually result in a draw. So I learned my lesson good while avoiding a devastating wipe out. That day I learned that laying the draw is not a simple, safe bet like everyone espouses.

The losses didn't stop there though. It had such a heavy emotional impact on me that over the next week or two I turned it into a $5k loss by trying to make up for it in subsequent games.

I've never considered myself a gambler or a punter, so to lose such a large amount "trading", which I thought was a smarter than gambling, was.. humbling, for lack of a better word.

By now I have just had enough of losing and my confidence is so shot that I am hesitant to enter the markets at all. Suffice to say my stakes have decreased dramatically and I am focussed on staying under a nominated figure for my worst case scenario should the worst case happen. Eg. in the case that for whatever reason my bet rides to the end and loses, it wipes out no more than 10% of my Betfair balance. It helps me sleep at night.
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Derek27
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rik wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:43 pm
Was wondering what was everyones worst downswing and was it a significant percentage of your capital?
Given the number of people who report blown banks, I would say it's 100% for many people. :)

Off memory, I think my worst was about 15%. It felt so dire I made the drastic decision to stop drinking while trading, as well as a few other adjustments concerning risk and the markets I trade.
Vaz0202
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abgespaced wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:46 am
Everything you guys have said about mean reversion has happened to me.

I am a new trader but I had a great run of laying the draw in cricket when I first started. I was cautious to begin with, risking only $50 per game and letting the bet ride. 90% success rate. Then I read a cricket trading guide and thought I could trade the draw. Ended up staring at an $8k liability. Swallowed the pill and got out for $3.6k loss.

What's really mind-boggling to me was how I got so far into the shit before I realised just how deep in it I was. I thought laying the draw was a safe bet, so kept pouring money into it as it dropped. I drained my personal bank accounts dry to do it.

The beautiful thing was that in the end the game did actually result in a draw. So I learned my lesson good while avoiding a devastating wipe out. That day I learned that laying the draw is not a simple, safe bet like everyone espouses.

The losses didn't stop there though. It had such a heavy emotional impact on me that over the next week or two I turned it into a $5k loss by trying to make up for it in subsequent games.

I've never considered myself a gambler or a punter, so to lose such a large amount "trading", which I thought was a smarter than gambling, was.. humbling, for lack of a better word.

By now I have just had enough of losing and my confidence is so shot that I am hesitant to enter the markets at all. Suffice to say my stakes have decreased dramatically and I am focussed on staying under a nominated figure for my worst case scenario should the worst case happen. Eg. in the case that for whatever reason my bet rides to the end and loses, it wipes out no more than 10% of my Betfair balance. It helps me sleep at night.
Good news is you made the steps to protect your bank, everything else is ‘the price you paid for your education’

I have been stung with something similar but at least you got out when you realised you had made a mistake.

This is your trading Dunkirk. You live to fight another day and better days will be ahead
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firlandsfarm
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Never lost my bank but I have suffered a few large losses a bit like the OP's comment that they found it 'mind-boggling to them was how they got so far into the shit before they realised just how deep in it they were'. I guess it's rabbit in the headlights syndrome. Anyway saying "what a pratt" was the easy bit … I found the hard part was working out what I had done wrong other than the obvious of poor money/risk management.
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abgespaced
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Vaz0202 wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:53 am

Good news is you made the steps to protect your bank, everything else is ‘the price you paid for your education’

I have been stung with something similar but at least you got out when you realised you had made a mistake.

This is your trading Dunkirk. You live to fight another day and better days will be ahead
Thanks Vaz. Yeah it's good to think about the silver lining. It still hurts, mainly because I know how long it will take before my balance looks the same again using these smaller, safer stakes. It's like a sharp hit of reality knowing that I actually have to become a good trader and make money consistently rather than just getting a big win.
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Derek27
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When I saw and replied to this thread, I didn't realise the OP's question was in April!
Vaz0202
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abgespaced wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:35 pm
Vaz0202 wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:53 am

Good news is you made the steps to protect your bank, everything else is ‘the price you paid for your education’

I have been stung with something similar but at least you got out when you realised you had made a mistake.

This is your trading Dunkirk. You live to fight another day and better days will be ahead
Thanks Vaz. Yeah it's good to think about the silver lining. It still hurts, mainly because I know how long it will take before my balance looks the same again using these smaller, safer stakes. It's like a sharp hit of reality knowing that I actually have to become a good trader and make money consistently rather than just getting a big win.
I feel the pain.
I decided to withdraw a huge portion of my playing funds the other day to start again with smaller stakes. It will take awhile but I know I can do it.

If I can’t get back there again with smaller stakes, I was certainly playing a game of luck with the big bucks and better off well out of it.
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