Boom and bust cycle.

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

Last week I thought it's finally time the start trading seriously. So, let's begin:

-ladder with VWAP
-all crossovers/fractional level highlighted,
-guardian with winning stall, jockey, place
-at the races for from, draw, pace
-small stakes (£0.10) a tick.
-firm mindset, "don't touch anything below decimal odds of 3.00 (don't like volatility) "
-aware of different races, fields and their characteristics (Hcap, Mdn, grp1 etc.)

After the end of the day, it all went good traded 8 races, a strike rate of around 50%, small profit. Let's move on to the next day and increase stakes to £0.20 a tick, why not.
Another 8 races were all good, broke even (always keeping in mind this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvOf8P9 ... l=BetAngel).
More or less 4 days has passed, small profits, around 8-10 races a day. Time for Saturday... it went well with 15 races around 50% SR small profit (still keeping to £0.20 a tick).

All those trading days I was very careful, even anxious (despite extremely low risk), aware (like a hunter in savannah, LOL) happy with my overall hunt.
My total profit by now, after a week of trading (more or less 55 races) is nearly £2.38.

Sunday was different...I woke up relaxed... I knew the markets by now... I know what's going to happen, how to make money.
When I Sat in from of my screen, the feeling of anxiety was gone (together with awareness).
First race, first trade: short price favourite 1.75 or smth (remember the rule don't touch anything below decimal odds of 3.00?)
At that point after my back entry, fully confident: no way it will go higher then odds of 2... it will retrace in a second... just wait. At the post time, the red clock showing -5 sec, time to trade out, I didn't retrace. Loss -£3.35...

Devasted, all week profit gone (55 races) in one trade, rules broken... trading my own imagination AGAIN. Feeling of depression (LOL we are talking about pennies here, I can find more loose change in front of a nightclub on Sunday morning, but somehow here, it all feels different, it represents some future potential).

Two more days of trading, full tilt and the entire bank is gone (don't worry £28 only). Now, this story was going on for 6 years now, on and off: trade well, go bust, don't trade for weeks, (different amounts, times, strategies, etc.)

It's like there are 2 people in me, and one will always destroy what another has done. I have done bet angel masterclass with PW a few years ago, I have watched lots of trading psychology vids, read books, think fast and slow, Thinking in bets, NN Taleb books, Rande Howell vids, hell I do meditation for nearly 2 hours twice a day for 10 years now.

I simply can't win this, Mr Hyde in me is too strong. I thought to share this with you all. Help you offer here is free and priceless, just want to say thank you all.
sphilipmyer
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:23 pm

Perhaps automation may suit you better?
the4droogs
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 11:47 am
Location: Canberra, Australia

Thanks for the honest and open write up. I think there are many of us who understand exactly how you feel. Can I echo the other commenter, perhaps automation will suit you better. In my short trading 'career' I have experienced similar results to you with manual trading, but my automation never breaks from the rules I set it. I am a profitable trader only because of automation.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

globi166 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:50 am
Devasted, all week profit gone (55 races) in one trade, rules broken... trading my own imagination AGAIN. Feeling of depression (LOL we are talking about pennies here, I can find more loose change in front of a nightclub on Sunday morning, but somehow here, it all feels different, it represents some future potential).

I feel your pain, I didn't see much boom in the early days but saw more bust than Donald Trump at a Miss Universe pageant.

It doesn't matter if its pennies or pounds you're losing its the frustration that wears you down. Just when you think you've turned a corner along comes another kick in the nuts and you're right back to square one.

Unfortunately its hard to give advice because it can be a slightly different journey for everyone. All you can really do is try to understand the market as best you can, you can do that by recording data or just recording the markets and viewing them back. What helped me was separating all the different types of markets and looking for repeating patterns within them. Hcaps trade differently to maidens, trade differently to bumpers etc...

It's possible for you to come out the other side but obviously its not easy, its a matter of finding what works for you.
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Derek27
Posts: 23478
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I concur with the other posters but a couple of points stood out.
globi166 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:50 am
After the end of the day, it all went good traded 8 races, a strike rate of around 50%, small profit. Let's move on to the next day and increase stakes to £0.20 a tick, why not.
One day's small profit isn't any reason to double stakes.
globi166 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:50 am
Two more days of trading, full tilt and the entire bank is gone (don't worry £28 only). Now, this story was going on for 6 years now, on and off: trade well, go bust, don't trade for weeks, (different amounts, times, strategies, etc.)
Successful traders will have ups and downs, losing days but for most sports/strategies I would expect them to average out to a near certain profit every month. You need to assess your trading on a longer term basis, month by month rather than day by day.
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

the market is a natural born bully /bear. it will bully you around until you bow down to pressure give up your position .thats how you release value into the betfair ecosystem.

you will win the war by loosing some battles and wining some , question is ?
how much do you win when you win and how much do you loose ?
i think we all suffer from lack of confidenece in our own strategies. we are quick to pick up the small gains and jump out of a downturn too late.

build your confidence by being brutally honest to your self , and i think meditation is great start but #nothing beats underatanding the market structure , its participants and the overall goal .(VALUE)
find it , define it, test it ...........and fully understand the video below ..... i am still learning ....

https://youtu.be/DZEiNaXVWSw
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

I think Derek is spot on. Something I used to do before I started trading was write down on a sticky note where I was on the month, I did that in order to put the losses into perspective. I'm not so sure it's a good thing to do long term because it may breed fear when it comes to taking a position but it did help me to stop focusing on that one outcome.

Another strange thing I do is to pay myself each week, every Sunday. I withdraw into PayPal and then leave it there, strange but I somehow take comfort in my PayPal balance being more than my BF balance... I could just withdraw into my main bank account but then I feel the significance of that withdrawal would just get lost in the numbers.
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Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Just a point to note on top of the existing comments. Sundays are much lower liquidity than other days of the week. So be aware of that.
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

Thank you all for your responses. I will take the advice on board.

I guess I don't want to be like the bottom guy from the pic.
Not sure how long it will take, and if I will ever get there... and if I will are all those diamonds will be enough to cover the mining costs?
Maybe there is more than just money in it?
Hopefully, I will find out one day.
I hope we all can get there eventually... (hang on, there will be no market if we all get there :D ) Thank you again all and have a nice day.
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stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Good picture - sums up a lot of trader 'journeys' I would say. Just we often don't know exactly how far or close we are on it.

Boom and bust is one good way to define the trading experience - in my experience (and some I've read here too) it's a common pattern. Long steady gains, then that 'bad' day hits...

The trick seems to be to anticipate that bad day, before it happens - least that is what I try to do these days.
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gstar1975
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:59 am

globi166 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:50 am
Last week I thought it's finally time the start trading seriously. So, let's begin:

-ladder with VWAP
-all crossovers/fractional level highlighted,
-guardian with winning stall, jockey, place
-at the races for from, draw, pace
-small stakes (£0.10) a tick.
-firm mindset, "don't touch anything below decimal odds of 3.00 (don't like volatility) "
-aware of different races, fields and their characteristics (Hcap, Mdn, grp1 etc.)

After the end of the day, it all went good traded 8 races, a strike rate of around 50%, small profit. Let's move on to the next day and increase stakes to £0.20 a tick, why not.
Another 8 races were all good, broke even (always keeping in mind this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvOf8P9 ... l=BetAngel).
More or less 4 days has passed, small profits, around 8-10 races a day. Time for Saturday... it went well with 15 races around 50% SR small profit (still keeping to £0.20 a tick).

All those trading days I was very careful, even anxious (despite extremely low risk), aware (like a hunter in savannah, LOL) happy with my overall hunt.
My total profit by now, after a week of trading (more or less 55 races) is nearly £2.38.

Sunday was different...I woke up relaxed... I knew the markets by now... I know what's going to happen, how to make money.
When I Sat in from of my screen, the feeling of anxiety was gone (together with awareness).
First race, first trade: short price favourite 1.75 or smth (remember the rule don't touch anything below decimal odds of 3.00?)
At that point after my back entry, fully confident: no way it will go higher then odds of 2... it will retrace in a second... just wait. At the post time, the red clock showing -5 sec, time to trade out, I didn't retrace. Loss -£3.35...

Devasted, all week profit gone (55 races) in one trade, rules broken... trading my own imagination AGAIN. Feeling of depression (LOL we are talking about pennies here, I can find more loose change in front of a nightclub on Sunday morning, but somehow here, it all feels different, it represents some future potential).

Two more days of trading, full tilt and the entire bank is gone (don't worry £28 only). Now, this story was going on for 6 years now, on and off: trade well, go bust, don't trade for weeks, (different amounts, times, strategies, etc.)

It's like there are 2 people in me, and one will always destroy what another has done. I have done bet angel masterclass with PW a few years ago, I have watched lots of trading psychology vids, read books, think fast and slow, Thinking in bets, NN Taleb books, Rande Howell vids, hell I do meditation for nearly 2 hours twice a day for 10 years now.

I simply can't win this, Mr Hyde in me is too strong. I thought to share this with you all. Help you offer here is free and priceless, just want to say thank you all.
All I can say is keep going! And keep analysing your mistakes. I kept starting with £25 banks and after 6months of analysis (Been dabbling on Betfair since 2010 but seriously since 2018) After my analysis of the first 3 months of 2021 I managed (after blowing up mutiple £25 accounts) to grow my bank to £1100.

So my advice to you would be this: Do not double your stakes daily, try to double your Bank before you think about increasing your stakes to double. Work out a rough daily target for Mon Tues Wed Thu and have higher targets for Fri Sat. It took me about 7-10 days to double my bank. So a using a £25 bank aim for around £2.50 per day. So using compounding it doesnt take that long. It took about 5 months to turn £25 into £1000, and if you can turn £25 into £1k you can turn £1k into £40k in 5 months. Just use 1 stake when trading Mdns Novs and look for swings, and in Hcps use slightly larger stakes but go for smaller 1 tick trades. I also used Liability stakes. I give each race a rating from 1-6 and then adjust my staking depending on how confident i am of getting a profit out of that market, so if its a 1 rating i use my lowest stake and if its a 6 then i use max stakes, during the week my ratings only go up to 3 unless its a festival and on Saturdays up to 6 but only for the televised races.

Keep going!! Keep Calm and Carry on Trading!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
Totally agree. Also turning £25 into £1100 in 5 months doesn't mean you can turn £1k into £40k in the same timescale. Not least the markets would respond very differently to the larger stakes and the difficulty in getting the larger stakes matched. There's also the emotional impact of trading with vastly increased stakes particuarly for someone relatively inexperienced.
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MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

ANGELS15 wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 3:54 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
Totally agree. Also turning £25 into £1100 in 5 months doesn't mean you can turn £1k into £40k in the same timescale. Not least the markets would respond very differently to the larger stakes and the difficulty in getting the larger stakes matched. There's also the emotional impact of trading with vastly increased stakes particuarly for someone relatively inexperienced.
Also the fact that the recommended target was 10% a day. Not entirely sure if that's realistic for pre-race, it might be, but from my point of view and dutching if I've made 2% a day it's been a pretty good day.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

globi166 wrote:
Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:18 am
Thank you all for your responses. I will take the advice on board.

I guess I don't want to be like the bottom guy from the pic.
Not sure how long it will take, and if I will ever get there... and if I will are all those diamonds will be enough to cover the mining costs?
Maybe there is more than just money in it?
Hopefully, I will find out one day.
I hope we all can get there eventually... (hang on, there will be no market if we all get there :D ) Thank you again all and have a nice day.
I dont think many people have that breakthrough moment where they go from loser or breakeven to big winner.
I assume most of the top guys over time they just slowly get better, maybe that breakthrough moment is that first strategy that clearly works and then you build from there, keep testing maybe because of the first good strategy you get another idea that could work etc...
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