Well, I would love to but how to calculated value pre-race? There is no way I could model the market with so many variables, and beat BSP on regular basis, I think. I know I could use the Dutching tab in BA and place backs on lay side, I tried that, but end up from time to time with unmatched bets that mess up value.MobiusGrey wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:50 pmYou seem to understand value, have you considered doing something other than pre-race trading? I can't pre-race trade either, I don't have the discipline for it and get too emotionally attached to the trade. I do however make what many would consider a modest income from purely dutching horse races taking value bets.globi166 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:45 amSo as per setting goals/targets for me, this is not an option. The main problem is lack of confidence, also I always feel like I have some sort of aversion towards the market. The moment I put my ladders on.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:04 pm
I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.
The thing is I was paying my bills/mortgage in the last 4 years from betting/gambling at online casinos and bookmakers. I didn't have a massive problem with £900-£1200 drawdowns (sure is very unpleasant) simply because I could calculate that I have positive EV beforehand, so I knew I HAVE TO make a profit in the long run (and that was the case).
Now, most of the loopholes in casinos are patched, bookies restricted/closed down my accounts, so I'm facing the nightmare of full-time employment or trading (I have saved a few quid so I can give a fair trial to trading now for a few months, without any rush).
Another thing is with free bets or bets to qualify I never use to lay them on the exchange, just straight bet as I knew that in the long run I always have positive Ev. Bet your qualifiers on 2.00 to reduce the variance and FB on 7.00-8.00 to get most of the value out of them.
Now with trading, I'm using such small stakes, as it feels like I'm driving in the dark without headlights, as I don't know if my EV is positive beforehand.
I might assume positive EV simply by offering to the market, but then I might fuck something up in the middle or at the end of the trade taking too small profit to big loss etc.
I have accumulated so much information, knowledge and strategies over the years, but the structure is missing. And it seems like I can't put all those things in a coherent order. Like someone who is trying to build the car, knows most of the parts, the way they work but is unable to put them together to build that damn car.