Boom and bust cycle.

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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gstar1975
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:59 am

globi166 wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:50 am
Last week I thought it's finally time the start trading seriously. So, let's begin:

-ladder with VWAP
-all crossovers/fractional level highlighted,
-guardian with winning stall, jockey, place
-at the races for from, draw, pace
-small stakes (£0.10) a tick.
-firm mindset, "don't touch anything below decimal odds of 3.00 (don't like volatility) "
-aware of different races, fields and their characteristics (Hcap, Mdn, grp1 etc.)

After the end of the day, it all went good traded 8 races, a strike rate of around 50%, small profit. Let's move on to the next day and increase stakes to £0.20 a tick, why not.
Another 8 races were all good, broke even (always keeping in mind this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvOf8P9 ... l=BetAngel).
More or less 4 days has passed, small profits, around 8-10 races a day. Time for Saturday... it went well with 15 races around 50% SR small profit (still keeping to £0.20 a tick).

All those trading days I was very careful, even anxious (despite extremely low risk), aware (like a hunter in savannah, LOL) happy with my overall hunt.
My total profit by now, after a week of trading (more or less 55 races) is nearly £2.38.

Sunday was different...I woke up relaxed... I knew the markets by now... I know what's going to happen, how to make money.
When I Sat in from of my screen, the feeling of anxiety was gone (together with awareness).
First race, first trade: short price favourite 1.75 or smth (remember the rule don't touch anything below decimal odds of 3.00?)
At that point after my back entry, fully confident: no way it will go higher then odds of 2... it will retrace in a second... just wait. At the post time, the red clock showing -5 sec, time to trade out, I didn't retrace. Loss -£3.35...

Devasted, all week profit gone (55 races) in one trade, rules broken... trading my own imagination AGAIN. Feeling of depression (LOL we are talking about pennies here, I can find more loose change in front of a nightclub on Sunday morning, but somehow here, it all feels different, it represents some future potential).

Two more days of trading, full tilt and the entire bank is gone (don't worry £28 only). Now, this story was going on for 6 years now, on and off: trade well, go bust, don't trade for weeks, (different amounts, times, strategies, etc.)

It's like there are 2 people in me, and one will always destroy what another has done. I have done bet angel masterclass with PW a few years ago, I have watched lots of trading psychology vids, read books, think fast and slow, Thinking in bets, NN Taleb books, Rande Howell vids, hell I do meditation for nearly 2 hours twice a day for 10 years now.

I simply can't win this, Mr Hyde in me is too strong. I thought to share this with you all. Help you offer here is free and priceless, just want to say thank you all.
All I can say is keep going! And keep analysing your mistakes. I kept starting with £25 banks and after 6months of analysis (Been dabbling on Betfair since 2010 but seriously since 2018) After my analysis of the first 3 months of 2021 I managed (after blowing up mutiple £25 accounts) to grow my bank to £1100.

So my advice to you would be this: Do not double your stakes daily, try to double your Bank before you think about increasing your stakes to double. Work out a rough daily target for Mon Tues Wed Thu and have higher targets for Fri Sat. It took me about 7-10 days to double my bank. So a using a £25 bank aim for around £2.50 per day. So using compounding it doesnt take that long. It took about 5 months to turn £25 into £1000, and if you can turn £25 into £1k you can turn £1k into £40k in 5 months. Just use 1 stake when trading Mdns Novs and look for swings, and in Hcps use slightly larger stakes but go for smaller 1 tick trades. I also used Liability stakes. I give each race a rating from 1-6 and then adjust my staking depending on how confident i am of getting a profit out of that market, so if its a 1 rating i use my lowest stake and if its a 6 then i use max stakes, during the week my ratings only go up to 3 unless its a festival and on Saturdays up to 6 but only for the televised races.

Keep going!! Keep Calm and Carry on Trading!
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ShaunWhite
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Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
Totally agree. Also turning £25 into £1100 in 5 months doesn't mean you can turn £1k into £40k in the same timescale. Not least the markets would respond very differently to the larger stakes and the difficulty in getting the larger stakes matched. There's also the emotional impact of trading with vastly increased stakes particuarly for someone relatively inexperienced.
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MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

ANGELS15 wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 3:54 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
Totally agree. Also turning £25 into £1100 in 5 months doesn't mean you can turn £1k into £40k in the same timescale. Not least the markets would respond very differently to the larger stakes and the difficulty in getting the larger stakes matched. There's also the emotional impact of trading with vastly increased stakes particuarly for someone relatively inexperienced.
Also the fact that the recommended target was 10% a day. Not entirely sure if that's realistic for pre-race, it might be, but from my point of view and dutching if I've made 2% a day it's been a pretty good day.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

globi166 wrote:
Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:18 am
Thank you all for your responses. I will take the advice on board.

I guess I don't want to be like the bottom guy from the pic.
Not sure how long it will take, and if I will ever get there... and if I will are all those diamonds will be enough to cover the mining costs?
Maybe there is more than just money in it?
Hopefully, I will find out one day.
I hope we all can get there eventually... (hang on, there will be no market if we all get there :D ) Thank you again all and have a nice day.
I dont think many people have that breakthrough moment where they go from loser or breakeven to big winner.
I assume most of the top guys over time they just slowly get better, maybe that breakthrough moment is that first strategy that clearly works and then you build from there, keep testing maybe because of the first good strategy you get another idea that could work etc...
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gstar1975
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:59 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
Peter has a blog post and youtube video about setting targets not fixed but just as guidance as something to aim for. This advice gave me my breakthrough moment. Maybe he needs to improve on his money management. Thats what it sounds like to me IMO.

Here's the Blog post and video link:

https://www.betangelacademy.com/how-muc ... e-targets/
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

gstar1975 wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 7:10 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
Peter has a blog post and youtube video about setting targets not fixed but just as guidance as something to aim for. This advice gave me my breakthrough moment. Maybe he needs to improve on his money management. Thats what it sounds like to me IMO.

Here's the Blog post and video link:

https://www.betangelacademy.com/how-muc ... e-targets/
I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.
andy28
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

Thanks for posting this video

https://youtu.be/DZEiNaXVWSw

Exactly what I have done over the last few weeks, I just put a back order in 5 minutes out and left it, green up 15s before the off. I have 500+ races now (all Aussie races) and have already noticed a pattern, as Peter said in video a brach to follow. For me the plan is when I get a decent sample (thinking 2000) then I have a base so then I change something, does it get worse? No then carry on, change something else, and so on.

It is important not to touch it and let it play out. I also record the odds of the fav and also record where it is in terms of range but with Aussie races this can be misleading as with 5 minutes from the off there may only be $1500 matched. But what I also found was how many times the odds when I backed it at odds of say 3.5 (random number) went out to 3.85 before coming back and close at 3.30, I would have bailed when it hit 3.85. Also it let me just sit and watch the ladder and charts, I also try different charts to see which seem to better suit me. They are deffo horses for courses.

The goal for me is to be able to set up automation for horse racing as it takes emotion out of it, for some reason I lose $0.83 I get frustrated and have turned off the green up rule and let it go in play to green up. But yet back in the day when I was betting $100 a race and lost $100 I didn't bat an eye lid, it is crazy!!


I think this is a key strategy for newbies like myself that are as thick as a plank with regards to computer skills.

But also this video is confirmation that it is a good starting point

As for the count I would have won 45% lost 51% and broke even 4%, from a $5 bet returned a loss of $18.75
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:04 pm
gstar1975 wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 7:10 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:48 pm
Slightly suprised by gstar's advice. The received view is that you shouldn't have any sort of target and you should allow stakes to grow naturally, Ie small increases to keep it meaningful rather than trying to increase it in mind altering lumps. Probably proof if needed that people should just do whatever suits them personally, trading isn't one size fits all. If something works for you then do it, if not do something different.
Peter has a blog post and youtube video about setting targets not fixed but just as guidance as something to aim for. This advice gave me my breakthrough moment. Maybe he needs to improve on his money management. Thats what it sounds like to me IMO.

Here's the Blog post and video link:

https://www.betangelacademy.com/how-muc ... e-targets/
I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.
So as per setting goals/targets for me, this is not an option. The main problem is lack of confidence, also I always feel like I have some sort of aversion towards the market. The moment I put my ladders on.


The thing is I was paying my bills/mortgage in the last 4 years from betting/gambling at online casinos and bookmakers. I didn't have a massive problem with £900-£1200 drawdowns (sure is very unpleasant) simply because I could calculate that I have positive EV beforehand, so I knew I HAVE TO make a profit in the long run (and that was the case).
Now, most of the loopholes in casinos are patched, bookies restricted/closed down my accounts, so I'm facing the nightmare of full-time employment or trading (I have saved a few quid so I can give a fair trial to trading now for a few months, without any rush).

Another thing is with free bets or bets to qualify I never use to lay them on the exchange, just straight bet as I knew that in the long run I always have positive Ev. Bet your qualifiers on 2.00 to reduce the variance and FB on 7.00-8.00 to get most of the value out of them.

Now with trading, I'm using such small stakes, as it feels like I'm driving in the dark without headlights, as I don't know if my EV is positive beforehand.
I might assume positive EV simply by offering to the market, but then I might fuck something up in the middle or at the end of the trade taking too small profit to big loss etc.
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MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

globi166 wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:45 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:04 pm
gstar1975 wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 7:10 pm


Peter has a blog post and youtube video about setting targets not fixed but just as guidance as something to aim for. This advice gave me my breakthrough moment. Maybe he needs to improve on his money management. Thats what it sounds like to me IMO.

Here's the Blog post and video link:

https://www.betangelacademy.com/how-muc ... e-targets/
I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.
So as per setting goals/targets for me, this is not an option. The main problem is lack of confidence, also I always feel like I have some sort of aversion towards the market. The moment I put my ladders on.


The thing is I was paying my bills/mortgage in the last 4 years from betting/gambling at online casinos and bookmakers. I didn't have a massive problem with £900-£1200 drawdowns (sure is very unpleasant) simply because I could calculate that I have positive EV beforehand, so I knew I HAVE TO make a profit in the long run (and that was the case).
Now, most of the loopholes in casinos are patched, bookies restricted/closed down my accounts, so I'm facing the nightmare of full-time employment or trading (I have saved a few quid so I can give a fair trial to trading now for a few months, without any rush).

Another thing is with free bets or bets to qualify I never use to lay them on the exchange, just straight bet as I knew that in the long run I always have positive Ev. Bet your qualifiers on 2.00 to reduce the variance and FB on 7.00-8.00 to get most of the value out of them.

Now with trading, I'm using such small stakes, as it feels like I'm driving in the dark without headlights, as I don't know if my EV is positive beforehand.
I might assume positive EV simply by offering to the market, but then I might fuck something up in the middle or at the end of the trade taking too small profit to big loss etc.
You seem to understand value, have you considered doing something other than pre-race trading? I can't pre-race trade either, I don't have the discipline for it and get too emotionally attached to the trade. I do however make what many would consider a modest income from purely dutching horse races taking value bets.
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

MobiusGrey wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:50 pm
globi166 wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:45 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:04 pm

I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.
So as per setting goals/targets for me, this is not an option. The main problem is lack of confidence, also I always feel like I have some sort of aversion towards the market. The moment I put my ladders on.


The thing is I was paying my bills/mortgage in the last 4 years from betting/gambling at online casinos and bookmakers. I didn't have a massive problem with £900-£1200 drawdowns (sure is very unpleasant) simply because I could calculate that I have positive EV beforehand, so I knew I HAVE TO make a profit in the long run (and that was the case).
Now, most of the loopholes in casinos are patched, bookies restricted/closed down my accounts, so I'm facing the nightmare of full-time employment or trading (I have saved a few quid so I can give a fair trial to trading now for a few months, without any rush).

Another thing is with free bets or bets to qualify I never use to lay them on the exchange, just straight bet as I knew that in the long run I always have positive Ev. Bet your qualifiers on 2.00 to reduce the variance and FB on 7.00-8.00 to get most of the value out of them.

Now with trading, I'm using such small stakes, as it feels like I'm driving in the dark without headlights, as I don't know if my EV is positive beforehand.
I might assume positive EV simply by offering to the market, but then I might fuck something up in the middle or at the end of the trade taking too small profit to big loss etc.
You seem to understand value, have you considered doing something other than pre-race trading? I can't pre-race trade either, I don't have the discipline for it and get too emotionally attached to the trade. I do however make what many would consider a modest income from purely dutching horse races taking value bets.
Well, I would love to but how to calculated value pre-race? There is no way I could model the market with so many variables, and beat BSP on regular basis, I think. I know I could use the Dutching tab in BA and place backs on lay side, I tried that, but end up from time to time with unmatched bets that mess up value.

I have accumulated so much information, knowledge and strategies over the years, but the structure is missing. And it seems like I can't put all those things in a coherent order. Like someone who is trying to build the car, knows most of the parts, the way they work but is unable to put them together to build that damn car.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

MobiusGrey wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:50 pm
globi166 wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:45 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:04 pm

I hadn't read that but I take it as saying don't bother with targets because you'll get what you're given. But I think we'd agree that if they help then use them, if they don't then don't. It's not really something you can be prescriptive about because it comes down to personality type.

So as per setting goals/targets for me, this is not an option. The main problem is lack of confidence, also I always feel like I have some sort of aversion towards the market. The moment I put my ladders on.


The thing is I was paying my bills/mortgage in the last 4 years from betting/gambling at online casinos and bookmakers. I didn't have a massive problem with £900-£1200 drawdowns (sure is very unpleasant) simply because I could calculate that I have positive EV beforehand, so I knew I HAVE TO make a profit in the long run (and that was the case).
Now, most of the loopholes in casinos are patched, bookies restricted/closed down my accounts, so I'm facing the nightmare of full-time employment or trading (I have saved a few quid so I can give a fair trial to trading now for a few months, without any rush).

Another thing is with free bets or bets to qualify I never use to lay them on the exchange, just straight bet as I knew that in the long run I always have positive Ev. Bet your qualifiers on 2.00 to reduce the variance and FB on 7.00-8.00 to get most of the value out of them.

Now with trading, I'm using such small stakes, as it feels like I'm driving in the dark without headlights, as I don't know if my EV is positive beforehand.
I might assume positive EV simply by offering to the market, but then I might fuck something up in the middle or at the end of the trade taking too small profit to big loss etc.
You seem to understand value, have you considered doing something other than pre-race trading? I can't pre-race trade either, I don't have the discipline for it and get too emotionally attached to the trade. I do however make what many would consider a modest income from purely dutching horse races taking value bets.
How many horses to back in a race??
ChoosyAl
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:44 pm

Came here looking for therapy 😊

Similarities to the OP, but none of my ‘rules’ broken - very new to this after matched betting for a while.

4 days on practice mode, consistent wins (34 out of 40?), 2/3 live days with very small stakes & winning consistently (25 out of 30?) then yesterday 13 out of 18 and today 3 out of 7.

Yesterday was a loss because of one runaway that I kept hoping would come back, and today was a loss because losses were 50p and wins were 20p.

I feel utterly gutted, learning all the time, but suddenly feel like I know NOTHING!
ChoosyAl
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:44 pm

If I’d been slower to post for therapy & instead watched the videos linked to throughout this chat - it would have served me better 👍🏻encouraged already.
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

ChoosyAl wrote:
Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:26 pm
I feel utterly gutted, learning all the time, but suddenly feel like I know NOTHING!
Yep, the brutal thing is when you realize you've made zero progress and back to square one, plus a hefty loss on top of that, but it's normal and we all go through it.

Therapy after only a few days? Long road ahead, you can hardly learn much after a few days anyway, it's a period where you're just collecting the basic market experience and trying to avoid the biggest mistakes, you're not actually expected to make a profit so early :)

Eh, it's a far cry from matched betting, to get a good edge you need to know a market inside and out, and that can take a long time indeed.
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