Panic buying

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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ANGELS15
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Apparently there's been a shortage of petrol delivery drivers (along with other HGV drivers) for a while. There's even an HGV driver shortage in mainland europe. The system was coping in the UK because most people were buying petrol as and when they needed it, say £20 - £40 at a time. The media then got wind of the fact that there was a shortage of tanker drivers and started the panic. It doesn't look likely to end very soon. What's bad is that it's not just commuters that are affected but businesses and self employed people like couriers and taxi drivers.
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firlandsfarm
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ANGELS15 wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:14 pm
Apparently there's been a shortage of petrol delivery drivers (along with other HGV drivers) for a while. There's even an HGV driver shortage in mainland europe. The system was coping in the UK because most people were buying petrol as and when they needed it, say £20 - £40 at a time. The media then got wind of the fact that there was a shortage of tanker drivers and started the panic. It doesn't look likely to end very soon. What's bad is that it's not just commuters that are affected but businesses and self employed people like couriers and taxi drivers.
It will end maybe soon, maybe not! When all the tank fillers for no real reason have full tanks they will not be able to draw much more!! :)
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ANGELS15
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:48 pm
ANGELS15 wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:14 pm
Apparently there's been a shortage of petrol delivery drivers (along with other HGV drivers) for a while. There's even an HGV driver shortage in mainland europe. The system was coping in the UK because most people were buying petrol as and when they needed it, say £20 - £40 at a time. The media then got wind of the fact that there was a shortage of tanker drivers and started the panic. It doesn't look likely to end very soon. What's bad is that it's not just commuters that are affected but businesses and self employed people like couriers and taxi drivers.
It will end maybe soon, maybe not! When all the tank fillers for no real reason have full tanks they will not be able to draw much more!! :)
I'm not sure they may necessarily be able to fill their tanks as many stations are limiting drivers to £30 (not sure about vans?). Apparently as I write this around 20% of filling stations are still 'dry'. It could be that this becomes the new 'norm' for a while if drivers are restricted to around £30. This may mean longer queues than previously as people 'run out' quicker. But it could also balance out a bit as drivers switch to public transport for some journeys. In a recent interview Brian Madderson chairman of the Petrol Retailers Association explained that petrol station numbers had fallen from 12500 a few years ago to 8500 today.
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LeTiss
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In all honesty, as traders we should recognise the mentality behind panic buying

How many people here have mistakenly piled into a steamer, just in case they miss out?
How many people here have traded out for a red, quicker than they should have done, for fear of being shafted?

Being influenced by what others are doing, or unduly panicking about something has been the undoing for many traders at times
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firlandsfarm
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ANGELS15 wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:18 am
firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:48 pm
ANGELS15 wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:14 pm
Apparently there's been a shortage of petrol delivery drivers (along with other HGV drivers) for a while. There's even an HGV driver shortage in mainland europe. The system was coping in the UK because most people were buying petrol as and when they needed it, say £20 - £40 at a time. The media then got wind of the fact that there was a shortage of tanker drivers and started the panic. It doesn't look likely to end very soon. What's bad is that it's not just commuters that are affected but businesses and self employed people like couriers and taxi drivers.
It will end maybe soon, maybe not! When all the tank fillers for no real reason have full tanks they will not be able to draw much more!! :)
I'm not sure they may necessarily be able to fill their tanks as many stations are limiting drivers to £30 (not sure about vans?). Apparently as I write this around 20% of filling stations are still 'dry'. It could be that this becomes the new 'norm' for a while if drivers are restricted to around £30. This may mean longer queues than previously as people 'run out' quicker. But it could also balance out a bit as drivers switch to public transport for some journeys. In a recent interview Brian Madderson chairman of the Petrol Retailers Association explained that petrol station numbers had fallen from 12500 a few years ago to 8500 today.
Yes but their psychology will be to add many £30 top-ups until they are full. Then it will need them to stay away until they have done 150 - 200 miles and have the room to add £30 worth of fuel. But they won't, the £30 limit may actually be causing them to be even more concerned and have them topping-up at any/every opportunity.

The 20% figure confuses me (I'm not questioning it). It means 4 stations need to handle the business of 5. I don't see how that causes such long queues. I wonder if the £30 limits where imposed are fuelling the queues because many are not waiting until their tank is half empty and the thought of a £30 limit has them thinking they need to keep the tank topped-up all the time.
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decomez6
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:02 am
The 20% figure confuses me (I'm not questioning it). It means 4 stations need to handle the business of 5. I don't see how that causes such long queues.
un-even distribution of dry stations will result to wider dry areas than others. some stations only have diesel in stock .
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firlandsfarm
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decomez6 wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:28 am
firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:02 am
The 20% figure confuses me (I'm not questioning it). It means 4 stations need to handle the business of 5. I don't see how that causes such long queues.
un-even distribution of dry stations will result to wider dry areas than others. some stations only have diesel in stock .
Appreciated but the 20% figure relates to London and the South East so there is some regionalisation built in. Apparently 62% of stations in the South East (PRA doesn't say if that incorporates London) have both fuels. The balancing 18% have one type of fuel (but doesn't clarify which fuel). I agree that part of the reason for the queues is customers redeploying to those stations with fuel but I feel the greater cause of the queues is the 'topper-upers'.
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Euler
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I finally have some petrol. I've been watching Google maps for when traffic builds up at Petrol stations and as soon as I saw it go red I jump in my car and drove there!
greenmark
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Euler wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:50 pm
I finally have some petrol. I've been watching Google maps for when traffic builds up at Petrol stations and as soon as I saw it go red I jump in my car and drove there!
My local big tesco has been empty several times over the last 2 weeks (including yesterday). Right now it's "as busy as it gets" according to Google. I'm guessing they've had a delivery.
It's a bit surreal. I read some stations have had 500% increase in demand.
Demand normally is so predictable. But 500%!!!!
The last 18 months has taught me mor about human nature than the previous 58 years.

And just for the record thats not all negative. The selfless dedication of many to doing the right thing has been humbling.
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bennyboy351
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sniffer66 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:11 pm
242926479_10225775358881438_1221769081258190861_n.jpg
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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firlandsfarm
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[quote=firlandsfarm post_id=279355 time=1633435696 user_id=13159
Appreciated but the 20% figure relates to London and the South East so there is some regionalisation built in. Apparently 62% of stations in the South East (PRA doesn't say if that incorporates London) have both fuels. The balancing 18% have one type of fuel (but doesn't clarify which fuel). I agree that part of the reason for the queues is customers redeploying to those stations with fuel but I feel the greater cause of the queues is the 'topper-upers'.
[/quote]


... and perhaps this is the evidence!
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decomez6
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:04 am
fuel but I feel the greater cause of the queues is the 'topper-upers'.
... and perhaps this is the evidence!
just in time ( JIT ) business model is a lean efficient way to manufacture and distribute goods and services. the bottleneck arises when you have a high demand for the goods but no workers to deliver the services.
the job centre and many other work agencies keep a JIT labour database .the workers in this reserves are to be deployed on temporary basis to companies experiencing bottlenecks.
alot of the EU workers formed part of that database. some of them lived in shared accommodations in order to minimise their outgoings .
they held no parmanent working cotracts, no government funding and no union representation . they did well to work in a JIT job callouts scenarios( like the fuel shortage,farming, hospitality,cleaning , care work.......etc) .
there is enough fuel in the country and there is a spike demand(panic buy ) for it , the only missing link is a JIT labour supply.
Trader Pat
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The last thing I panic bought was a box of condoms in the late 90's
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Realrocknrolla
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Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:31 am
The last thing I panic bought was a box of condoms in the late 90's
The people panic buying the fuel should take a leaf out of your book and then they can stop producing idiots that panic buy fuel. 😆
Trader Pat
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Realrocknrolla wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:39 am
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:31 am
The last thing I panic bought was a box of condoms in the late 90's
The people panic buying the fuel should take a leaf out of your book and then they can stop producing idiots that panic buy fuel. 😆

:lol:
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