Maybe this is not the endeavour for you. Find another path in life.
Risk of Ruin
Welp, it's hard to come back from big losses and rebuild confidence again, like I mentioned on the previous page.
We all lose at first, and we all initially suffer too much from greed or fear or anxiety etc. But if you really think that your psychological profile is especially bad and unsuitable for betting/trading then refocusing your efforts on another field could be better since betting losses can always become worse.
Sounds like you're probably suffering from a bad case of "sunk-cost fallacy", I suggest to read up extensively on this topic. In short, it's a common trap, the more effort you invest into this and the more money you lose the harder it is to quit, even when it's the most "profitable" thing to do.
Otherwise, if you feel like your psychology is pretty normal like everyone else's and want to try again then not much else to do but to make sure you learn your lessons and go again, but small to test your strategy. Although realistically it will probably take many attempts and tweaks to make your strategy work, or it won't work at all and you'll need to build other strategies.
Either way, good luck.
We all lose at first, and we all initially suffer too much from greed or fear or anxiety etc. But if you really think that your psychological profile is especially bad and unsuitable for betting/trading then refocusing your efforts on another field could be better since betting losses can always become worse.
Sounds like you're probably suffering from a bad case of "sunk-cost fallacy", I suggest to read up extensively on this topic. In short, it's a common trap, the more effort you invest into this and the more money you lose the harder it is to quit, even when it's the most "profitable" thing to do.
Otherwise, if you feel like your psychology is pretty normal like everyone else's and want to try again then not much else to do but to make sure you learn your lessons and go again, but small to test your strategy. Although realistically it will probably take many attempts and tweaks to make your strategy work, or it won't work at all and you'll need to build other strategies.
Either way, good luck.
A better idea would be to open your strategy up to feedback in a new thread, without revealing the sensitive edge part. That way others could offer their thoughts on whether your approach could work, or how to tweak it etc, much like crowdsourcing.
Last edited by Kai on Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
anyway thanks for your helpMight also want to look into the phenomena called "guilt-tripping".
I too had a huge reason for disappointment when I started trading : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKAnk2XVnDE
Anyway, like I said, best of luck.
I too had a huge reason for disappointment when I started trading : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKAnk2XVnDE
Anyway, like I said, best of luck.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2309
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Personally I would absolutely avoid staking by % of bank. Return% on Betfair is massively affected by stake, much more than one would expect. What works well at £2 stakes might quickly become a loss at £5.
Kai wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:33 pmMore short one-liners friend? It hardly stimulates an engaging discussion, FYI, risk of ruining a potentially good thread goes well above 90%.
A lot of numbers thrown there to try to quantify it all, but it's not so simple in practice, is it. Not really interested in a discussion but here's a few things to consider and think about...
In reality you will stake according to your confidence levels, market size, quality of opportunity etc... Meaning for example my staking goes from up to 20k on football match odds from the lay side, to as low as 2 stakes on something like racing inplay from the back side at very high price ranges. Now, you would assume that because these are 2 vastly different staking sizes and plans that the end results between them would also be vastly different, but in reality they're not too dissimilar.
In other words you stake what makes sense to stake in any given market, as long you make a genuine effort to manage your positions sensibly and execute your trades as well as you can from the technical side, your ratios should automatically end up somewhere on the healthier side of the spectrum, depending on your personal risk tolerance levels. Please note however, that the amount you stake is not automatically the amount you risk!!! This cannot be understated.
That being said, trading banks are "easy" to replenish, while trading confidence is not, too many focus on protecting their banks but confidence is something worth protecting as well, once you lose that it can become an uphill battle to get it back and a downward spiral is more likely. You are always just one tilting situation or one bad outage away from blowing your bank, unless you put in extra effort to eliminate such extreme risks.
In any case, just because you've blown your bank for whatever internal or external reason, does not automatically mean you are "ruined". If your edge is still in tact, then you can slowly rebuild your bank even if you can't immediately afford to replace it.
Confidence is important and it can cost you.
I had a strategy ready to go, did all the testing so went live (small stakes ) and it failed for the first full month worse than any month in my testing. So protecting my bank I stopped for the next month, and it performed as it should have. In fact it made back the loss of the previous month. Still lacking confidence I thought I needed to watch it another month and it won for that month as well. So October I go live again 5 days in and it is down again so I pulled the plug again. Next 2 days paper trading it wins and wins back the loss of the first 5 days.
My confidence is at an all time low but the strategy is tracking as I had thought, only thing that has changed is my confidence. Why I cant just let it do what it does is beyond me Back in July had I kept going until now it I would be sitting pretty, instead my Bank is at an all time low.
Last edited by andy28 on Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
There is a confusion what I mean is you can take my test ask me a question regarding risk to reward ratio.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2309
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
It could be coincidence but it sounds likely that your strategy does not work in real markets. The 'practise' section of Bet Angel is really only for checking rules behave as expected rather than for testing profitability as it does not and cannot behave in exactly the same way as live. For example as you never enter the market the amount available at the best price will be infinite in practise mode, whereas it might only be a few pence in real life. Also as soon as you enter the market you become part of that market and so change the way it behaves. I would only use the practise mode for testing behaviour and then use the smallest possible stakes in real mode to test profitabilityandy28 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:56 amConfidence is important and it can cost you.
I had a strategy ready to go, did all the testing so went live (small stakes ) and it failed for the first full month worse than any month in my testing. So protecting my bank I stopped for the next month, and it performed as it should have. In fact it made back the loss of the previous month. Still lacking confidence I thought I needed to watch it another month and it won for that month as well. So October I go live again 5 days in and it is down again so I pulled the plug again. Next 2 days paper trading it wins and wins back the loss of the first 5 days.
My confidence is at an all time low but the strategy is tracking as I had thought, only thing that has changed is my confidence. Why I cant just let it do what it does is beyond me Back in July had I kept going until now it I would be sitting pretty, instead my Bank is at an all time low.
Trading cycle
1.Why we do trading? to make a profit
2.what required to make a profit? Calculated risk to accept small loss and big profit.
3.what required to accept small losses? Trading psychology
4.what required to master trading psychology? Correct knowledge, consistent results, profit oriented proven method over a long term.
So what i needed is Correct knowledge, consistent results, profit oriented proven method over a long term.
1.Why we do trading? to make a profit
2.what required to make a profit? Calculated risk to accept small loss and big profit.
3.what required to accept small losses? Trading psychology
4.what required to master trading psychology? Correct knowledge, consistent results, profit oriented proven method over a long term.
So what i needed is Correct knowledge, consistent results, profit oriented proven method over a long term.