Risk of Ruin

[andy28]

Confidence is important and it can cost you.

I had a strategy ready to go, did all the testing so went live (small stakes ) and it failed for the first full month worse than any month in my testing. So protecting my bank I stopped for the next month, and it performed as it should have. In fact it made back the loss of the previous month. Still lacking confidence I thought I needed to watch it another month and it won for that month as well. So October I go live again 5 days in and it is down again so I pulled the plug again. Next 2 days paper trading it wins and wins back the loss of the first 5 days.

My confidence is at an all time low but the strategy is tracking as I had thought, only thing that has changed is my confidence. Why I cant just let it do what it does is beyond me Back in July had I kept going until now it I would be sitting pretty, instead my Bank is at an all time low.

It could be coincidence but it sounds likely that your strategy does not work in real markets. The 'practise' section of Bet Angel is really only for checking rules behave as expected rather than for testing profitability as it does not and cannot behave in exactly the same way as live. For example as you never enter the market the amount available at the best price will be infinite in practise mode, whereas it might only be a few pence in real life. Also as soon as you enter the market you become part of that market and so change the way it behaves. I would only use the practise mode for testing behaviour and then use the smallest possible stakes in real mode to test profitability

Yeah I didn't explain it too well, it isn't a trading bot, it is a value bet at SP (on Greys) and with smallish stakes ($5).

The bets were getting matched as I wanted (when I went live) but I got too many losing bets and not enough winning bets. You maybe right tho as having a losing month isn't a good sign. But I am also wondering as it is a betting strategy it may have much larger drawdowns than a trading strat. My M Carlo sim I ran may not have given me an accurate drawdown as it lay betting at varying odds and liabilities, and that confused the hell out of me, so I just took the average of all bets. But I feel I am in no mans land and will probably just paper trade this month and then let it go from Nov to the end of the year come hell or high water

.

[Anbell]

Confidence is important and it can cost you.

I had a strategy ready to go, did all the testing so went live (small stakes ) and it failed for the first full month worse than any month in my testing. So protecting my bank I stopped for the next month, and it performed as it should have. In fact it made back the loss of the previous month. Still lacking confidence I thought I needed to watch it another month and it won for that month as well. So October I go live again 5 days in and it is down again so I pulled the plug again. Next 2 days paper trading it wins and wins back the loss of the first 5 days.

My confidence is at an all time low but the strategy is tracking as I had thought, only thing that has changed is my confidence. Why I cant just let it do what it does is beyond me Back in July had I kept going until now it I would be sitting pretty, instead my Bank is at an all time low.

It could be coincidence but it sounds likely that your strategy does not work in real markets. The 'practise' section of Bet Angel is really only for checking rules behave as expected rather than for testing profitability as it does not and cannot behave in exactly the same way as live. For example as you never enter the market the amount available at the best price will be infinite in practise mode, whereas it might only be a few pence in real life. Also as soon as you enter the market you become part of that market and so change the way it behaves. I would only use the practise mode for testing behaviour and then use the smallest possible stakes in real mode to test profitability

Yeah I didn't explain it too well, it isn't a trading bot, it is a value bet at SP (on Greys) and with smallish stakes ($5).

The bets were getting matched as I wanted (when I went live) but I got too many losing bets and not enough winning bets. You maybe right tho as having a losing month isn't a good sign. But I am also wondering as it is a betting strategy it may have much larger drawdowns than a trading strat. My M Carlo sim I ran may not have given me an accurate drawdown as it lay betting at varying odds and liabilities, and that confused the hell out of me, so I just took the average of all bets. But I feel I am in no mans land and will probably just paper trade this month and then let it go from Nov to the end of the year come hell or high water

.

The averages are a warning sign, but why not just go to minimum stakes and keep it running?

[andy28]

Yeah I have to find out one way or the other

[ShaunWhite]

Trading cycle
1.Why we do trading? to make a profit
2.what required to make a profit? Calculated risk to accept small loss and big profit.
3.what required to accept small losses? Trading psychology
4.what required to master trading psychology? Correct knowledge, consistent results, profit oriented proven method over a long term.

So what i needed is Correct knowledge, consistent results, profit oriented proven method over a long term.

Psychology is only a problem if you fear losing. For any unproven strategy, start with 0.001% of your 'bank' and when you get bored making pennies, and you've done that for a few weeks, increase your stakes by a very small amount. Rinse and repeat. You can't trade confidently without a track record of success and you build that with small stakes. The only important thing is to not run out of money before you run out of things to learn.

[Derek27]

2.what required to make a profit? Calculated risk to accept small loss and big profit.

That's completely wrong! If you back any horse at 20-1 it's a small risk to make a big profit. That doesn't mean it's going to be successful.

[jamesedwards]

Yeah I didn't explain it too well, it isn't a trading bot, it is a value bet at SP (on Greys) and with smallish stakes ($5).

The bets were getting matched as I wanted (when I went live) but I got too many losing bets and not enough winning bets. You maybe right tho as having a losing month isn't a good sign. But I am also wondering as it is a betting strategy it may have much larger drawdowns than a trading strat. My M Carlo sim I ran may not have given me an accurate drawdown as it lay betting at varying odds and liabilities, and that confused the hell out of me, so I just took the average of all bets. But I feel I am in no mans land and will probably just paper trade this month and then let it go from Nov to the end of the year come hell or high water.

Don't forget when you trade at SP you become part of the market and your bet will affect the final SP.

[azfyazfy]

2.what required to make a profit? Calculated risk to accept small loss and big profit.

That's completely wrong! If you back any horse at 20-1 it's a small risk to make a big profit. That doesn't mean it's going to be successful.

Yes, you're are right but what I mean is if trade in my favour so i have a choice to convert my profit towards whatever i want.
for example: equally on both or small loss big win.

[Derek27]

2.what required to make a profit? Calculated risk to accept small loss and big profit.

That's completely wrong! If you back any horse at 20-1 it's a small risk to make a big profit. That doesn't mean it's going to be successful.

Yes, you're are right but what I mean is if trade in my favour so i have a choice to convert my profit towards whatever i want.
for example: equally on both or small loss big win.

You're grossly overthinking things. I started trading by placing £5 or £10 bets but you can easily go as low as £1. You don't need to worry too much about EV, RR, bank management, etc. until you're profitable and you're ready to increase stakes. Focus on pure trading, developing your strategy and making a profit first.

[azfyazfy]

That's completely wrong! If you back any horse at 20-1 it's a small risk to make a big profit. That doesn't mean it's going to be successful.

Yes, you're are right but what I mean is if trade in my favour so i have a choice to convert my profit towards whatever i want.
for example: equally on both or small loss big win.

You're grossly overthinking things. I started trading by placing £5 or £10 bets but you can easily go as low as £1. You don't need to worry too much about EV, RR, bank management, etc. until you're profitable and you're ready to increase stakes. Focus on pure trading, developing your strategy and making a profit first.

Correctly you said, but my problem is to Picking up the right direction to go in is way more important than how hard i work.

[Kai]

You've not even said what sport you're looking at, how is anyone supposed to give you any concrete advice. Is it cricket??

[Derek27]

You've not even said what sport you're looking at, how is anyone supposed to give you any concrete advice. Is it cricket??

It's not cricket.

[azfyazfy]

I tried many sports cricket, tennis, horse racing and Greyhound. But now i have decided to focus completely on cricket.

[Kai]

Well the bad news then is you already know more than me and Derek about cricket trading.

But the good news is Emmson might finally get some company in the cricket thread

[Derek27]

I tried many sports cricket, tennis, horse racing and Greyhound. But now i have decided to focus completely on cricket.

Step 1: Get a profitable trade.

Step 2: Decide whether you want a green, free bet or punt.

If I were you, I'd just focus on step 1 and green/red up. Only when you're profitable do you need to worry about optimizing your profits. At the moment it's prudent to grab your profits and cut your losses.

[ShaunWhite]

Correctly you said, but my problem is to Picking up the right direction to go in is way more important than how hard i work.

Just out of interest..... How long are you keeping your positions open? A lot of people start by thinking they can predict the future many minutes ahead, but it's easier to think on a much shorter timescale, at first just taking small but frequent gains or loses. Remember long swings are result of many many buy/hold/sell decisions that just happen to all read in the same direction. Its not taking a position then sitting on your hands hoping you guessed right.