Stats from last year in the Big Bash got me thinking - https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/bbl-10-preview/
From the 61 matches scheduled, there were 2 matches with no result and one match odds market was voided due to a tie. That leaves 58 matches.
In 51/58 matches, both teams traded under 2 during the game.
Many people say that strategies are never shared and sucessful bots are never shared. Cricket is so liquid, consider this a Happy New Year's present.
Warning: Remember - nothing is guaranteed and I am not saying this bot is the way to untold riches, could be the way to ruin. I might have misprogrammed it and I am not responsible if you use this bot and lose money.
So here is the bot I designed for this and when I did I thought about the following calculation.
I'm willing to have a $200 liability per match and red out at $180.
7 x $180 = $1260 of losses
So from the remaining 51 matches I would need to have made $1260 / 51 = $24.70 per event (after commission) on average.
Can it be done in 2021. I seem to be on track.
////
Alternative scenario
If you take away the red out at $180 (because you are still hanging out for a very late reversal) then:
7 x $200= $1400 of losses
So from the remaining 51 matches I would need to have made $1400/ 51 = $27.45 per event (after commission) on average.
Big Bash Twenty Twenty
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beermonsterman
- Posts: 522
- Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
- Location: Birmingham UK
Thank you very much i look forward to this happy new year to you toogazuty wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:48 pmStats from last year in the Big Bash got me thinking - https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/bbl-10-preview/
From the 61 matches scheduled, there were 2 matches with no result and one match odds market was voided due to a tie. That leaves 58 matches.
In 51/58 matches, both teams traded under 2 during the game.
Many people say that strategies are never shared and sucessful bots are never shared. Cricket is so liquid, consider this a Happy New Year's present.
Warning: Remember - nothing is guaranteed and I am not saying this bot is the way to untold riches, could be the way to ruin. I might have misprogrammed it and I am not responsible if you use this bot and lose money.
So here is the bot I designed for this and when I did I thought about the following calculation.
I'm willing to have a $200 liability per match and red out at $180.
7 x $180 = $1260 of losses
So from the remaining 51 matches I would need to have made $1260 / 51 = $24.70 per event (after commission) on average.
Can it be done in 2021. I seem to be on track.
////
Alternative scenario
If you take away the red out at $180 (because you are still hanging out for a very late reversal) then:
7 x $200= $1400 of losses
So from the remaining 51 matches I would need to have made $1400/ 51 = $27.45 per event (after commission) on average.
Twenty Twenty.baf
most of these matches are quite balanced at the start arent they so 51 out of 58 dont have to mean much if a lot of them started at 1.8 or so
just 1.33 and lower isnt expected to go odds against from implied chance
i agree overall the matches seem to be more volatile than they should be, but might be better off keep looking for reversal of low prices rather than a 1 off trade from start price
out of the 58 how many that hit 1.33 went back out to evens, more than 29?
im new to cricket but what i find interesting compared to tennis is that noone seems to know what the price should be, on tennis you have match point and the price will be relatively stable say at 1.06/1.07, cricket there was a game last week where at lot was matched at all prices between 1.09 and 1.2, you have big money being matched at 1.1 and then 20 seconds later without any change in score you get matched at 1.2 obviously that cant be efficient
also after wickets/boundaries the price can move significantly from where it initially settled
i think with botting at set prices its a problem that theres a good chance you get matched after a price jump, you put a lay at 2 you might get matched after a wicket the price jumps to 1.8 maybe the edge us big enough to compensate for that but same problem i have with a tennis bot losing lot of value
just 1.33 and lower isnt expected to go odds against from implied chance
i agree overall the matches seem to be more volatile than they should be, but might be better off keep looking for reversal of low prices rather than a 1 off trade from start price
out of the 58 how many that hit 1.33 went back out to evens, more than 29?
im new to cricket but what i find interesting compared to tennis is that noone seems to know what the price should be, on tennis you have match point and the price will be relatively stable say at 1.06/1.07, cricket there was a game last week where at lot was matched at all prices between 1.09 and 1.2, you have big money being matched at 1.1 and then 20 seconds later without any change in score you get matched at 1.2 obviously that cant be efficient
also after wickets/boundaries the price can move significantly from where it initially settled
i think with botting at set prices its a problem that theres a good chance you get matched after a price jump, you put a lay at 2 you might get matched after a wicket the price jumps to 1.8 maybe the edge us big enough to compensate for that but same problem i have with a tennis bot losing lot of value