Always a Short Head, nose or photo

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billbo001
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That's when it breaks down..... When I look it my spreadsheet and see a 'Red'(lose), I can guarantee it will be a loss by a short head, nose. Generally close!
Interested what conditions people put in place to try and stop these horses coming from behind.....!
Have a great weekend.
Will
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billbo001
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So a good few today, nose, short head, head....what types conditions do people use in these situations? Back bet gets taken 1.08 example then the other horse wins by a nose! Any ideas, Dallas and other guys out there???????
Anbell
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If you are backing at 1.08 then it almost certainly looks like it is going to win, so if it loses it will almost always be by a small margin (unless it falls over )
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ANGELS15
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Anbell wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 12:37 am
If you are backing at 1.08 then it almost certainly looks like it is going to win, so if it loses it will almost always be by a small margin (unless it falls over )
I've seen quite a few occasions when two horses have hit the line together and the winner actually traded at a higher price at the end. This may happen if an outsider and a short priced favourite hit the line together. It's possible in-running punters gambled on the favourite winning on the bob. Also dodgy photo angles play a part.

I remember some years ago having a bet on the exchange on a horse at Gowran Park. The horse had wondered a bit under pressure and another horse was flying through but as they hit the line on the freeze frame it looked as if my horse had hung on by a short head. Even the commentator thought it had won. It was 1/10 on betfair for my horse to win. This must have been before betfair had a cashout feature. In any event it never occured to me to quickly place a lay bet at say 1.15 to grab some profit. To my amazement the other horse was declared the winner!
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Crazyskier
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billbo001 wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 11:38 pm
So a good few today, nose, short head, head....what types conditions do people use in these situations? Back bet gets taken 1.08 example then the other horse wins by a nose! Any ideas, Dallas and other guys out there???????
Set the trigger higher?

For example some races work well with backing at 2.02 when the back price trades below 2.1 ( when the favourite's SP is above 4). At least then you only need a 50/50 hit rate to break even.

Equally, laying the field at a fixed liability when they touch double SP works wonderfully on some longer IP markets.

CS
rik
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In general if your trying to get matched towards the end of the race you should look to be with the momentum.
If the price quickly moved from 1.5 to 1.2 you might get value by firing a 1.08 bet in the market.
If the price went 1.05 or lower and your putting a 1.08 more often than not your getting matched by a fast picture guy thats noticed the leading horse slowing down, which might be an overreaction at times or the horse might hang on but in the long run I found that to be very poor value.
Obviously as Anbell was saying if your backing low odds towards the end of the race your horse isnt going to lose by 10 length.
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Black Ice
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CS wrote: Equally, laying the field at a fixed liability when they touch double SP works wonderfully on some longer IP markets.

Do you mean double SP of the favourite? And do you mean larger markets...ie large fields...or longer distance races?
Many thanks.
rik
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Black Ice wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 10:28 am

Do you mean double SP of the favourite? And do you mean larger markets...ie large fields...or longer distance races?
Many thanks.
pretty sure he means longer distances races and double SP of each individual runner so if SP10 then lay inplay at 20 etc
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Crazyskier
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rik wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 11:44 am
Black Ice wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 10:28 am

Do you mean double SP of the favourite? And do you mean larger markets...ie large fields...or longer distance races?
Many thanks.
pretty sure he means longer distances races and double SP of each individual runner so if SP10 then lay inplay at 20 etc
You got it! With the longer distances, especially when 3-4 runners' SPs are below 9, I'm finding some value laying all runners when the back prices touch double their SP. The vast majority of times, the winner will have an SP of around 3-7 and not trade above 10s in play.

This is one of many strategies I#m refining, but seeing some joy thus far. Just remember to lay to liability, not fixed stake or the liabilities on outsiders will be huge, and they do occasionally pop in.

CS
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Black Ice
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Many thanks guys..rik for replying...& CS for a full explanation.
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