Signalled the wrong horse - please help

Advanced automation available in Guardian - Chat with others and share files here.
Post Reply
doodaado
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:04 am

Hi, I'm a newbie and this is my first post, so please bear with me.
I have a rule set up that monitors the Win market in-play, and when a horse meets a group of conditions (all must be true), back this horse in the Place market. One of the conditions is the horse must be in sorted position 1 at the time. The rule has been working well and fairly profitable for a month. But today it backed (lost) 2 horses in Sandown 15:20 & 15:55, and when I watched replays those 2 horses were never leading, not even close, so they shouldn't have met the condition of being in sorted position 1. I couldn't work out why bets were triggered on those 2 horses. Please could someone check the conditions below and let me know if I got anything wrong?

- In the Win market, to check a horse is leading I'm using a rule that applies to "Any selection", and the condition "Last traded price = last traded price of selection in sorted position 1 + 0 ticks". I know a horse being in sorted position 1 doesn't always mean it's leading, but I don't understand how a horse that never even reached the second position could be in sorted position 1 by odds in the last 10 seconds of the race...
- Once identified a horse that meets all conditions in the Win market, to send the horse from the Win market to the Place market, I put the "selection's id on betfair" into a stored value called 'horse_id' for the Event
- To back the horse in the Place market, I set up a rule to back each row (see screenshot). When 'horse_id' for the Event = the row's selection id on betfair, back the horse in that row.
Capture.PNG
Thanks in advance!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

Hi doodaado, and welcome!

I am no expert, but for my two pence worth, I think you are looking for the horse that is leading (in the win market).......and assuming that is the favourite??? (sorted position 1 ???), The Favourite could be in any position maybe 4th, 5th , 6th etc. during the race and when your other conditions are met, so it could easily happen that your bet triggers in the place market when your chosen horse is maybe in 5th position.

Hope I have understood correctly :-),

Goodluck, stay safe!
Have a nice day! :-)
doodaado
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:04 am

Hi eatyourgreens, thanks for your response! Yes, I'm backing the favourite from the Win market in the Place market. I know the favourite is not necessarily the leading horse, i.e. if a horse is running up very fast from the 5th position, the market may expect that horse to have the best chance to win, but I thought the horse has to at least make some obvious progress i.e. got from 5th to 2nd, for the market to significantly reduce its odds. Is that an incorrect assumption?

Is there another way to identify the leading horse using automation?

I'm also curious why both cases happened in Sandown. Is there more likely to be discrepancy between leading and favourite in some racecourses than the others?

Thank you!
User avatar
Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

I tried a similar strategy a while back when I realised I could have two instances open simultaneously (win / place). I didn't stick only to the favourite though, rather I was triggering the place bet based upon relative conditions.

Essentially I found, like you than the favourite starts at LTP 1 so is often going to trade at LTP one for much of the entire race, often before seemingly dying in the last stages to finish 3rd or 4th!

Also, the in-play liquidity of the place market is almost non-existant, so the matched bets were often so low as to not represent true value.

Good luck if you can make it work long term, but I'm not sure there's any way to avoid the favourite trading in LTP position , even when he's way off the pace in the longer races.

CS
doodaado
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:04 am

Hi CS, thanks for your response!
I'm also testing another similar rule based on relative conditions, but haven't got the trick yet.
You are absolutely right on the liquidity point. I know my current strategy is not scalable, increasing stake size won't increase profit - that lesson costed me £180.
Post Reply

Return to “Bet Angel - Automation”